The Logic of Mission Creep

In 49 BCE, Julius Caesar traveled with his troops to the banks of the Rubicon river in northern Italy. By an ancient law, no Roman general was allowed to cross the river with an army. Caesar paused momentarily, weighing the terrifying prospect of civil war. Then, according to the Roman historian Suetonius, Caesar declared “the die is cast,” and swept south toward Rome. This week, President Trump struck a Syrian airfield with dozens of cruise missiles, following an attack by the Syrian regime on civilians with sarin nerve gas. Has Trump crossed his own Rubicon, and reached a point of no return, with the prospect of full-scale embroilment in the Syrian morass?

There’s good reason to think the air strikes will be an isolated event. After all, none of the key players in Syria in U.S. defense spending is about the same as Russia’s defense spending. Trump received three options for a military strike, and chose the most limited. All of this suggests that cooler heads may prevail.