<![CDATA[China's National Day show of military muscle risks backfiring]>
China's military parade on October 1 " one of the largest in human history " to observe the 70th anniversary of the communist republic's founding was largely aimed at a domestic audience. But the bigger impact of the massive display of Chinese military hardware was on the world stage, particularly on its neighbours and the US-led West, whether it was intended or not.
In the first place, the primary political message of the pomp and pageantry was to underline China's fast rise to being a global power, from what was a poor and weak country just decades ago, and the party's role in fostering it.
The grandeur was also meant to triumphantly celebrate the model of technocratic authoritarianism and state capitalism China has upheld, in resistance to calls from within and outside the country for the introduction of a universally accepted free market and liberal democracy, as Beijing sees global liberalism as losing some ground, if not legitimacy.
It was President Xi Jinping's second military parade in four years, something no party leader since Mao Zedong had attempted to stage. The propaganda-filled parade was also designed to underscore Xi's absolute grip on power and his unique status paralleling that of Mao, the founding father of the republic. Xi has already had this status enshrined in the party charter and state constitution. The message Mao proclaimed was that "Chinese stood up in the world", while Xi has pledged to lead the Chinese people to "stand on the top of the world".
Indeed, the anniversary came amid revived celebration of Mao's ultra-leftist doctrines and policies, ideological indoctrination campaign, revolutionary-patriotic songs, and a return to the Mao-style cult of personality surrounding Xi.
Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles during the parade. Photo: AP alt=Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles during the parade. Photo: AP
The showing of a powerful military under the Communist Party's strict control was a message to the country's tiny community of dissenters and liberal intellectuals that the party will not tolerate any challenge to its monopoly on power. The parade saw the party flag hoisted ahead of the national flag and the army flag " a violation of the law, which says the national flag must be raised first " suggesting the party's control over the state and the army.
Indeed, by any conventional measure, China has in recent decades made great advancements in economic development, ushered in by the late leader Deng Xiaoping's capitalist market reforms in the late 1970s. The parade might help boost the Chinese people's confidence about the country's future and the legitimacy of communist rule but, internationally, the impact of Beijing's massive flexing of muscles has been mixed as it has generated as much suspicion, fear and scorn as it has admiration and praise.
The 70th anniversary of the republic's founding comes as Beijing faces its most serious challenges from the outside world since 1989, when the communist state was plunged into international isolation a few months after its bloody military crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in and around Tiananmen Square.
The national day celebrations also came at a time when China and the US are locked in their tit-for-tat tariff war, with confrontations escalating on anything and everything. The US and its democratic allies, including the European Union, have defined the rising communist power as their chief rival and a threat to established world order and peace.
On top of this, the anniversary came as Hong Kong has fallen into its worst constitutional and political crisis under Chinese rule. The unrest, which has gone on for more than four months, is seen as a protest against Beijing's control over and suppression of freedom in the former British colony.
Cross-strait relations have been at their lowest ebb since a thaw in the mid-1990s, amid rising anti-Beijing and pro-independence sentiment on the self-ruled island of Taiwan.
President Xi Jinping waves as he reviews the troops during the National Day parade. Photo: Reuters alt=President Xi Jinping waves as he reviews the troops during the National Day parade. Photo: Reuters
Beijing proclaimed that the parade was showing a "peace-loving and responsible China". Nevertheless, the widely asked question is what was the motivation behind such a massive show of Chinese military might " which included more than 160 aircraft and 580 active weapon systems, among them new fighter jets, bombers, tanks, missile systems and landing platform docks, as well as other deterrence tools such as electronic and cyber warfare gear.
The gigantic display has triggered concerns among China's neighbours over Beijing's rush to militarise the nation. Yes, China's leaders believed it was imperative to upgrade the military to match its growing global interests as a result of becoming the world's second-largest economy. Chinese strategists may also have wanted the display to demonstrate Beijing's determination to defend its core interests, including its disputed territorial claims in the South and East China Seas, its effort to bring back Taiwan under its control, and resist US intervention in these occasions. It is also a show of resolve to compete with the US for regional and global influence and domination.
In recent years, China's overhyping of its military prowess has served to frighten smaller nations, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, alienating them from Beijing and prompting them to forge closer military ties with Washington to secure protection. The rise of China's military is also likely to trigger arms races among its major regional rivals, Japan and India, and even China's quasi-ally Russia, as they speed up their military modernisation to remain competitive.
The blue-water amphibious operations on display during the parade were designed for an assault on and occupation of Taiwan. Beijing views the island as a renegade province that must one day be united with the mainland, by force if necessary.
The People's Liberation Army has ramped up manoeuvres close to Taiwan ahead of its crucial presidential and legislative elections in January. Reunification is a central part of Xi's goal of "national rejuvenation", also a key theme in the parade. The show of military might will prompt Taiwan to speed up its programme to upgrade its national defences, and help convince the White House to approve more arms sales.
A formation of unmanned combat armaments on display. Photo: Xinhua alt=A formation of unmanned combat armaments on display. Photo: Xinhua
The most unintended consequence of the display, however, is the loud wake-up call sent to the US and its allies in the free West. The thunderous show of complete missile systems " including anti-ship, anti-aircraft and cruise missiles, as well as a new long-range multiple rocket launcher " may push Washington to speed up the development of its land-based missiles, following its recent withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.
The US believes that China maintains the world's "largest and most diverse" range of land-based missiles as it is free from any international treaty. The Chinese-made DF-21D and DF-26 on display during the parade are dubbed "carrier-killer" missiles. The DF-17 is said to be able to carry a hypersonic glide vehicle that could evade US missile defences.
The DF-41, capable of carrying 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads and with a range of 15,000km, could theoretically hit anywhere in the US and Europe, according to the Missile Defence Project at Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The utmost goal of the Chinese military is to achieve the Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) strategy, a deterrent that would keep US warships away from China's coastline and areas of contention such as Taiwan and the South and East China Seas, while ensuring China's dominance in the region.
Fears of China's military are widespread and growing, as evinced by the alarm in news headlines that dominated global media after the parade.
Some Western military observers warned that the parade was evidence of the serious threat China poses not only to its Asian neighbours, but also to the rest of the world.
Beijing is walking a tightrope between its domestic and foreign audience.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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