GROWTH SHOULD PICK UP FROM SECOND HALF OF THE FISCAL

India’s economy is expected to shrink in FY21. Most economists predict India will enter recession by September. What is your assessment?

Not just India, but the world economy will shrink in FY21. However, most analysts estimate the fallout in India will not be as severe as in other countries. In April, the International Monetary Fund had stated the Indian economy will grow in FY21, albeit at a slower pace. Even high frequency indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), showed improvement between April and May. June might be better, given that the economy is opening up. If India does see a full-year recession, it is not likely to be very deep, and we should see the economy bounce back in the next fiscal.

In which quarter do you expect India’s GDP to start growing instead of shrinking?

We have started opening up the economy over the past month. As more data starts flowing in, we will be