Malaysia's Sabah state elections: what issues will decide the polls?

With just days to go before Malaysia's Bornean state of Sabah heads to the ballot box on Saturday, the fight for political primacy has hit fever pitch as candidates of all stripes engage in wars of words in their bids to come out on top.

A total of 447 candidates from 15 parties will contest 73 state assembly seats in Sabah, the vast state on the island of Borneo that is home to some of Malaysia's most pristine beaches and jungles but also lags in development - a major source of discontent among voters, many of whom are young.

Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin of the Perikatan Nasional coalition, which came to power in March following a political coup, has already pledged that a victory in Sabah would see the federal government "hurry up and have the general election" - a move that is required to legitimise his position and solve the razor-thin majority his coalition holds in the country's parliament.

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The elections will see Shafie Apdal - leader of the Sabah Heritage Party (Warisan) that has governed the state since 2018 - and his allies from opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan go up against candidates from Muhyiddin's Perikatan Nasional and its collaborators such as the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), which has styled itself as the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (Sabah People's Alliance) for this election.

Nativist sentiment

One of the key campaign issues is that of undocumented foreigners living and working in Sabah, a matter that holds particular resonance among the Kadazan, Dusun and Murut indigenous ethnic groups in the state. This vote bank are the "kingmakers" in the state's elections, according to political analyst Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

The Sabah People's Alliance have used the issue of undocumented foreigners against Warisan and its allies in an attempt to erode support, a gambit that has gained traction in some constituencies. With Warisan smeared as a party for migrants, its leader Shafie - the state's incumbent chief minister - has been forced to point out that his ancestor's graves are in Sabah.

"Where is the [grave] of Musa's grandmother? Anifah's grandmother? I don't wish to mention. But don't go overboard in insulting and belittling me," Shafie was reported as saying, referencing the relatives of rival candidates while on the campaign trail.

Nativist sentiment has been on the rise in Sabah, which at 28 per cent has the highest proportion of non-citizens among its population of any Malaysian state. The Philippines recently renewed its controversial claim over the region - with Philippine Foreign Minister Teddy Locsin Jnr writing on social media in July that Sabah "was not in Malaysia"- and state police have reported receiving information that "immigrants from a neighbouring country" are set to arrive "in big numbers to create disturbance".

A graphic showing the Malaysian state of Sabah and the historical territory of the Sultanate of Sulu, which forms the basis of the Philippines' claim. Image: SCMP alt=A graphic showing the Malaysian state of Sabah and the historical territory of the Sultanate of Sulu, which forms the basis of the Philippines' claim. Image: SCMP

A territorial dispute over Sabah between the two countries that traces its roots back to the colonial period has long been dormant, with Malaysia's control over the region largely uncontested through the decades - though Philippine officials publicise Manila's official position that the region is part of the country's Sulu province from time to time.

Last month, Malaysia issued a diplomatic note pushing back against the Philippines' territorial claims, in response to a note from Manila in March that had challenged Putrajaya's plan to establish an extended continental shelf in waters off Sabah.

Arnold Puyok, a researcher working on electoral politics in Sabah and Sarawak, said that the undocumented migrant issue feeds into wider security concerns.

"Warisan and its allies have said that this issue falls under the jurisdiction of the federal government, but its rival parties accuse Warisan of not being bold enough, lacking leadership to deport these migrants," he said. "Factoring in the issue of a claim by the Philippines, they say that Warisan is not standing up for Sabah."

Pandemic campaigning

As a tourism hotspot, Sabah has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, though domestic tourism is starting to slowly pick up. On Monday, 49 new cases and a sixth new cluster were reported in the state, with public health professionals warning that campaigning and voter movements could worsen the situation.

Malaysia's Election Commission had earlier been urged to look into postal voting for the state, particularly as many voters do not live there full-time and would have to take flights home after voting.

Malaysian police officers show their ink-stained fingers after casting their ballots early during the 2020 Sabah state elections. Photo: Bernama/DPA alt=Malaysian police officers show their ink-stained fingers after casting their ballots early during the 2020 Sabah state elections. Photo: Bernama/DPA

So far, according to Puyok, candidates have not been deterred from campaigning. But a representative from Warisan said that the Election Commission was closely monitoring the situation and enforcing a standard operating procedure to keep numbers at campaign events and polling stations small, with hand sanitising checkpoints set up, as well as physical distancing and temperature checks.

Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Malaysia's senior minister for security, said that a special cabinet committee would discuss the Sabah elections to ensure that the virus was kept under control, adding that no politicians from Peninsular Malaysia had yet tested positive for Covid-19.

Political realignments

Sabah's elections were triggered by a slew of defections from Warisan, undergone in the hopes of delivering the state government into Perikatan Nasional's hands. However, the state decided to hold elections instead, with Warisan making its opposition to party-hopping a central plank of its campaign platform.

An increasing number of parties and politicians in Malaysia have begun discussing anti-hopping legislation, but political scientist Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said this was unlikely to happen.

"Most parties still want to keep the option of buying 'frogs' to either strengthen their own government or topple opponents," said Wong, warning that "frog-shopping" may continue even after the election results were out.

With a style of politics that is heavily predicated on pre-election coalitions and alliances, state governments in Malaysia are particularly vulnerable to collapse because of lawmakers switching parties or parties switching coalitions. Anti-hopping laws, said Wong, would only penalise individual lawmakers rather than whole parties - resulting in what he described as "yes men" politicians.

Although Sabah has long had a culture of politicians switching parties, younger voters have begun to criticise such party-hopping moves.

"Younger Sabahans are very angry about it, although it does depend on the demographic," said Rizal Rozhan, an activist with SabahPeka, a youth-driven initiative monitoring the state polls.

"Those who live in [Peninsular Malaysia] will be angry that they have to keep returning to vote, but young Sabahans in Sabah who feel the presence of their representatives in the area they live are not fazed by whether their representatives are frogs or not. As long as their representatives give the impression that they are 'close to the rakyat (ordinary people)', that's fine,"

Federal funding

Another issue in the elections is that of oil royalties, as Sabah's output accounts for about 40 per cent of Malaysia's crude oil production.

State leaders have been pushing for a greater share of oil revenue in return for Sabah's contributions to national oil and gas company Petronas, which recently paid out nearly 3 billion ringgit (US$725.4 million) in sales tax to the neighbouring state of Sarawak - something detractors argued was in "trade-off" for the state's oil and gas rights.

Khairy Jamaluddin, a federal-level minister and Umno member, has accused Warisan leader Shafie of throwing in his lot with former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, who refused to give Sabah or Sarawak a share of oil tax revenue during his most recent stint in power. Shafie, for his part, has said that if Warisan is returned to power he would ensure Sabah receives a similar deal from Petronas as the one granted to Sarawak.

Puyok, the academic, described the issue as one of development: with more money, more infrastructure and aid can be put in place in a state that lags behind Peninsular Malaysia in terms of development despite its vast natural resources and wealth.

The parlous state of Sabah's internet infrastructure was highlighted recently when a video of a teenager studying and taking exams from the tree tops - where she had better Wi-fi - went viral.

Veveonah Mosibin, 18, was praised for her grit and resourcefulness for erecting a makeshift wooden platform kitted out with a mosquito net and exam supplies, including stationery, power banks, insect repellent, food and water. As part of the country's antivirus measures, Malaysia's schools have increasingly turned to e-learning, but rural Sabah's poor infrastructure has hamstrung efforts, according to state education officials, with 52 per cent of students lacking internet access, as well as computers, smartphones or tablets.

Although the oil royalty question is a perennial one, the global economic downturn brought about by the pandemic has also put the federal government in a tight spot: Sabah's economy needs reviving, but oil prices remain low.

"Sabah feels like it's not getting its fair share of the oil royalty, which leads to not having enough funding to develop the state," said political scientist and academic Azmil Tayeb. "The oil royalty is complicated, and it's not financially feasible to increase the royalty from the current five per cent to 20 per cent."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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