Robust Biz Continuity Plan Is Non-negotiable
Why would a virus outbreak in one city in China throw the world into disarray? The answer lies in a mathematical theory proposed almost half a century ago. In a 1972 meeting of the American Association of Advancement of Science, mathematician Edward Lorenz gave a talk titled, ‘Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?’
Lorenz was talking about the science behind complex systems, what we now know as the Chaos Theory. It tells us that the more complex a system gets, the more fragile it becomes. These systems are very sensitive to their starting conditions, so a tiny difference in the initial ‘push’ you give them causes a big difference in where they end up. This is also known as the ‘Butterfly Effect’.
The most complex of human-made systems is globalisation, with supply chains spanning continents. In 2014, Ian Goldin, professor at Oxford University, wrote a prescient book titled (an obvious pun on the Butterfly Effect) and warned of risks to the global economy arising from six vectors. Amongst them, one was ‘pandemics’.
