Japan, Germany's first '2 plus 2' dialogue shows extent of Tokyo's outreach amid China's rising assertiveness: analysts

The defence and foreign ministers of Japan and Germany are to hold their first "2 plus 2" discussions in mid-April, with security and the concept of a "free and open Indo-Pacific" heading the agenda. 

The Yomiuri newspaper's Monday report, citing unnamed sources, said the ministers would have the talks by videoconference on April 16, and added that Tokyo was expected to use the meeting to underline its growing concern at China's increasingly assertive stance in the region.

Given Germany's geographical distance from East Asia, the meeting was "interesting and significant", said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University. 

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"There has been quite a lot of discussion in the Japanese media in recent weeks about Germany sending a warship to the region, which has struck me as a major change in [Berlin's] attitude," she said.

"My impression is that Germany has for some years been quite close to China, primarily due to trade and perhaps because they did not want to antagonise an important trade partner, but this appears to be a significant shift. Perhaps the change in attitude there is because of the coronavirus pandemic, but it may also be because of growing concerns over human rights issues in China or ocean trade routes."

Japan appears to be motivated to seek out new allies to ratchet up the global pressure on Beijing to moderate its policies, which range from the repression of the political opposition in Hong Kong to reports alleging human rights abuses against the Uygur people in Xinjiang.

Other primary concerns revolve around territorial disputes, such as Diaoyu Islands, which are claimed by Beijing despite being controlled by Tokyo, which calls them the Senkaku Islands.

"Japan has been quick to win the support of the new US government in Washington on the question of the Senkakus, but Tokyo will be hoping to have more governments also recognise Japanese sovereignty," Murakami said. "And that is why they are exploring all the possibilities that exist."

Germany is expected to deploy a frigate to Asia in August, which is likely to take part in joint exercises with units of Japan's Self-Defence Forces. On its return journey, it will become the first German warship since 2002 to cross the South China Sea.

Japan's defence minister Nobuo Kishi in December held online talks with his German counterpart, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and asked the German government to take part in freedom of navigation operations in the disputed waterway.

Kishi, in a statement from the defence ministry, said discussions with Germany were "aimed at promoting cooperation with like-minded countries that share a goal of realising freedom of navigation, the rule of law and connectivity". 

The statement added that it was "important for each country, including China, to refrain from taking actions that escalate tensions and to act in accordance with the rule of law, taking into account the current security environment in the South China Sea".

A French warship is also expected to make a similar voyage this summer and take part in exercises with Japanese units, while Britain's new aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, is also due in the region with a support fleet in the coming months. 

Yakov Zinberg, a professor of East Asian studies at Tokyo's Kokushikan University, said Japan was clearly attempting to expand its security ties beyond its traditional partners, an approach that might be driven by concern that the United States under the Trump administration demonstrated that it might not be a reliable partner.

However, he said, there was still a desire in Tokyo to avoid being dragged into a trade or military conflict with China.

"Japan's economy and trade are heavily dependent on ties with China, and Tokyo does not want its economy to suffer any further damage that could be the result of Japan siding with the US," Zinberg said. "It is possible that Japan is hoping to reduce its dependence on the US and is reaching out to other countries, even if they are far away, that it sees as perhaps more reliable."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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