Sir Martin Sorrell, the founder of pure-play digital advertising company S4 Capital, acknowledges the recent surge in ad dollars but asks, “Is this a dead cat bounce?”
He tells AdNews: “The true test of these companies, the ad hold companies, will be in 2023 when all the noise is out of the numbers from the fiscal and monetary stimulus, which quite rightly was put in post-hand pandemic.
“They said we had the best Q2 that we have ever had and they forgot to mention that the year previously they had the worst one.”
The big global advertising groups reported, for the September quarter, numbers which mostly show a return to pre-pandemic times, 2019.
Sir Martin isn’t impressed: “Omnicom has still not got back to where it was in 2019. Publicis has just got back to a little over where it was in 2019.
“We're much smaller, obviously, but we're running in the first half of the year 75% ahead of where we were two years ago.”
He says the self-satisfaction being exhibited by those saying the advertising industry is doing well isn’t the case when you take a pre-pandemic or full pandemic view.
“GDP growth this year will be 5% to 6%, next year 4% to 5%. In 2023, it'll go back, the pundits say, to 2%-3%.
“That's when the rubber hits the road. Now we have two tailwinds driving us. One is GDP growth and the other is digital transformation. And usually digital transformation accelerates when economic growth slows.
“What we learned this year is that there are two worlds, two planets, and really with all due respect to yourselves and analysts, you should really look at two different industries.
“Look at an analog industry, which is represented by the ad hold companies. And you should look at a digital industry which is represented by ourselves and the tech platforms and the hardware companies, the software companies and those companies that focus on digital.
“We grew by 20% last year. This year, so far, we've grown by 50% and that's organic, and we've indicated we'll grow by 40% for the year. And the hold Cos are saying, at best, they'll
