What to know about Australia's Aukus subs and why it's causing anxiety in Asia

The United States, Britain and Australia on Monday announced a plan for Canberra to purchase up to five conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered US submarines, starting in the early 2030s, in an effort to counter China's influence in the Pacific.

Starting this year, Australian military and civilian personnel will integrate with US and British navies and submarine industrial bases.

The Aukus pact, which was first sealed in 2021 and has four phases, drew a strong reaction from China which called it a "blatant act that constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines international non-proliferation system, fuels arms race, and hurts peace and stability in the region".

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Critics have also raised concerns that the Aukus deal may undermine the non-proliferation regime, as it is the first time a loophole in the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been used to transfer fissile material and nuclear technology from a nuclear weapon state to a non-weapons state.

Here's what you need to know about the Aukus pact and its implications for Asia.

The nuclear-powered submarine programme between Australia, the US and Britain may cost up to A$368 billion (US$244 billion) over the next three decades - the largest single defence project in history that will give Australia its first nuclear-powered submarines.

The programme would start with a A$6 billion investment over the next four years to expand a major submarine base and the country's submarine shipyards, and to train skilled workers, said Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

"This will be an Australian sovereign capability built by Australians, commanded by the Royal Australian Navy and sustained by Australian workers in Australian shipyards," he said in San Diego, California on Monday.

Albanese also said the scale, complexity and economic significance of the programme was comparable to the creation of the Australian automotive industry in the post-war period.

The total cost of the programme will account for around 0.15 per cent of the country's gross domestic product each year and would create 20,000 jobs in Australia over three decades.

"Australia can't afford not to do this ... it will be worth every cent when it comes to our national security, our national economy," said Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who called the government's decision "a game-changing investment".

In the first part of the programme, the US and UK will train Australian officers and engineers to operate nuclear-powered submarines, before the UK and Australia begin production and operation of the "trilaterally developed" submarine class.

The US will also sell three Virginia-class submarines that will arrive in the early 2030s, and Australia will have the option to purchase two more if necessary, said US President Joe Biden.

Britain intends on delivering the first SSN-Aukus, which is what the new class of submarines are called, by the late 2030s as Australia begins construction later this decade to deliver the first boat by the early 2040s.

After that, one sub will be built every two years in Australia until the late 2050s.

The HMAS Stirling, a Royal Australian Navy base situated on the west coast of Australia, will also host a rotational presence of British and US nuclear-powered submarines to build Australia's experience.

The deal sparked concerns that it would set a dangerous precedent that can be used by other states to hide highly enriched uranium, or plutonium, the core of a nuclear weapon, from international oversight.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations nuclear watchdog, urged the three states to implement safeguards and remain committed to global nuclear non-proliferation.

"In their communications, the Aukus Parties reaffirmed their previously stated commitment that maintaining the integrity of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and Agency safeguards remains a core objective in relation to Aukus," it stated.

The Aukus scheme uses a loophole in paragraph 14 of the NPT that allows fissile material utilised for non-explosive military purposes, like naval propulsion, to be exempt from inspections and monitoring by the IAEA.

Before the announcement of the deal, the Aukus partners had held discussions with the IAEA about the plans and taken steps to limit proliferation risks.

Southeast Asian countries have expressed concerns that Australia's nuclear-propelled submarines may mainly operate in their region, particularly in the South China Sea.

Malaysia and Indonesia expressed worry about the risk of nuclear proliferation, with Jakarta noting that sharing nuclear technology with power submarines could heighten the risk of new weapons of mass destruction. Vietnam and Thailand also shared these concerns.

In a series of tweets, the Indonesian foreign ministry said it expected Australia to "remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the NPT and IAEA safeguards" and develop a verification mechanism that was effective, transparent and non-discriminatory.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian foreign ministry warned about a possible "arms race" in the region, urging states to refrain from any provocation.

Experts who spoke to This Week in Asia say the deal, which gives more muscle to Australia's naval capabilities, is not seen as helpful, given that there are already measures in place to deal with China and such a move might be seen as antagonistic.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, international relations professor at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University said previously that Asean had become increasingly split on the US-China rivalry, with most member states having strong economic ties with China but depending on the US for security.

With the presence of China's nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine fleet already active across Southeast Asian waters, this may spell trouble for states in the region, some experts told This Week in Asia previously.

Australia has sought to allay these concerns, with the country's Chief of Navy Mark Hammond visiting Singapore and Indonesia this week.

In a wide-ranging interview with Singapore's Channel NewsAsia, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that the country agreed to acquire the fleet of submarines only "to seek to better ensure a strategic equilibrium".

As a "middle power" like most of the countries in the region, Wong said: "We seek to acquire this capability in order to help keep the peace. We want a peaceful, stable, prosperous region, as Singapore, as Malaysia, as Indonesia do."

Australia seeks to "replace an existing and ageing submarine capability with a new capability, which is nuclear propulsion, very different to nuclear-armed", she said.

Responding to a question about China's views and the possibility of destabilising, instead of stabilising, the region, Wong reiterated the reason for acquiring nuclear-power submarines.

"We want a region where no single country is dominated, (and) no single country dominates," she said.

But the move may destabilise the security situation in the region, according to a Singapore-based analyst.

"The deal will heighten tensions with China despite Canberra's attempts to restore some degree of good relations with China," said Alan Chong, an associate professor at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

He added that Southeast Asia's nuclear free zone may be undermined if Australian nuclear-powered submarines patrol there.

But Chong expects a muted response from Asean, as "they do not want to antagonise both Beijing and Canberra".

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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