If you think a writers' strike will be bad for viewers, status quo may be even worse

It's beyond question that the WGA strike, which began Tuesday, will have potentially devastating effects on writers, on the industry, and on the economy. That's not controversial; people don't engage in strikes expecting them not to be painful. A strike is, at its core, based on a calculation that the painful short-term effects of being out of work are worth the long-term gains, and that the pain to the people you're negotiating with will — if not immediately, then eventually — motivate them to make concessions.

But the analysis of short-term and long-term benefit doesn't always make it to the viewership side. Audiences are, for instance, often listed among of a strike, based on the possibility of disrupted production and the existence of fewer things to watch. And those effects will come: late-night shows will likely be affected first, with other gaps potentially varying based on the lead times of very