Will Japan's Kishida call snap election amid G7 success, improved South Korea ties?

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may be playing down the likelihood of a snap election, but as he basks in the afterglow of the successful G7 summit in Hiroshima and his public support rate follows a positive trajectory, he may yet be tempted to seek the approval of the electorate.

Kishida's rebound has been sudden and is the result of a series of social and political developments that have gone in his favour, according to observers. With uncertainty an inevitability in politics, analysts add that it would be wise to take advantage of the spike in support for his policies before they can be derailed by circumstances.

Suggestions that Kishida was considering calling an election have rumbled around the Diet for several months, but have taken on new energy since his public support began to rise from around 33 per cent in the four months until February.

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An opinion poll taken before Japan hosted the G7 leaders indicated that figure had recovered to a respectable 46.6 per cent and was very likely to be higher given the success of the Hiroshima summit.

"It's fair to say that the G7 leaders gathering in Hiroshima has been a great moment for Japan for several reasons," said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

For Japanese people, it is symbolic that a meeting that focused so much on regional and global security and the threat posed by nuclear weapons took place in the first city in the world to have been the target of an atomic attack, she said.

Similarly, it highlighted the position on nuclear weapons by Kishida, whose family is from Hiroshima.

It was "a clever move" to invite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to take part in the May 19-21 summit, she added.

"That guaranteed that the eyes of the entire world were on Hiroshima when these summits can offer turn out to be rather dull and boring," Murakami said. "Having Zelensky speak guaranteed that would not be the case."

Still, Kishida himself seemed to rule out the possibility of an election "as of now" during remarks to the media in Hiroshima on Sunday, insisting that his administration is "putting our priority on important challenges".

Analysts say that was far from an absolute dismissal of the idea and they point to an alignment of positive factors that will help Kishida's campaign.

As well as being in the spotlight for the summit, Kishida has presided over a sharp improvement in relations with South Korea, Murakami said, which has been welcomed by the public.

"Bilateral ties with Seoul have been really bad under previous administrations, but now it looks like there has been a real breakthrough and things are moving in a more positive direction," she said. "The people of both countries have seen that improvement and, at least here in Japan, that has helped the public's impression of Kishida."

Increasing defence spending has historically been a government position fraught with the danger of a public backlash. However, the announcement earlier this year that Kishida's administration will dramatically increase money spent on the Self-Defence Forces met virtually no resistance, primarily as most Japanese have concluded that the nation's defences need to be dramatically enhanced as three immediate neighbours - China, North Korea and Russia - are all showing increasing hostility.

The only drawback relates to finding the funds to pay for improved defence capabilities. Kishida will want to have the election wrapped up before he has to get into the details of where the money is coming from.

Similar questions will be asked about the cost of the government's plans to solve the nation's worsening population crisis. The details of measures to encourage couples to have more children have not been spelled out yet, but if the government goes ahead with the comprehensive approach that it has promised, the price tag will be considerable.

Yet another reason Kishida should call a general election is the general "feel-good" sensation around the country, Murakami said.

"After a few difficult years, things are getting better in Japan again," she said. "The economy is recovering and the worst of the pandemic is behind us, which means that people are able to take off their masks again and think about taking a holiday abroad again. It's psychological, but it's a powerful positive sensation."

If Kishida does call an election for later in the summer or in the early autumn, he is likely to make an official announcement before the end of the present Diet session on June 21.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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