India's BJP is 'on the back foot' with Manipur-Gandhi double whammy. But can Modi still claim a 'moral victory'?

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be left red-faced this week as he confronts an opposition-led vote of no confidence over his government's handling of deadly ethnic violence in northeastern Manipur state.

Although the vote has little chance of toppling his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which commands a majority in parliament's lower house, analysts say it could provide the opposition with an opportunity to claim a moral victory over a sensitive issue ahead of next year's general elections.

Violence in the remote mountainous state, which has been raging for months, sparked nationwide protests when videos recently surfaced of two women from a minority ethnic group being paraded around naked and assaulted by an angry mob.

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Modi, who had not previously commented on the issue in public, condemned the women's assault as "shameful" and promised action, but opposition parties disrupted parliament and demanded a detailed statement. As head of the government, Modi is expected to respond to the no-confidence motion.

"If he speaks now, then that becomes a moral victory," said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of the book Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. "If he [avoids] speaking up, then the opposition can say he has been completely silent on this issue."

It could prove to be a double whammy for the BJP, after main opposition Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi was reinstated to parliament on Monday following the suspension last week by India's Supreme Court of his two-year prison sentence for defamation.

"The BJP is on the back foot, and this can be understood from the fact that it has made a tremendous effort to revive the National Democratic Alliance," said Mukhopadhyay, referring to a coalition of political parties that he said had virtually gone into "cold storage" since the BJP won 303 seats in the 542-seat lower house in 2019.

Congress staged a surprise victory in the key southern state of Karnataka in May, which likely rang alarm bells within the ruling party, observers say.

A clearer idea of the BJP's political fortunes in next year's general election is likely to come from state polls to be held in November and December this year in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Rajasthan and Mizoram.

Opposition parties have their work cut out for them, however, because of their disparate political ideologies.

"The opposition is trying to get it together," said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator and founder of research firm C-Voter, adding that Gandhi returning to parliament "catapults him back into leadership".

While parts of northeast India have seen violence flare up in the past, Deshmukh said that previous incidents weren't as deadly and didn't receive the same amount of national attention. "Still, it's not likely to cause any serious damage to the BJP electorally," he added.

In the run-up to a general election that is due in eight months time, Tuesday's parliamentary proceedings could also shed light on issues the opposition wants to highlight and the BJP's strategy in countering them.

Prashant Bhushan, an Indian Supreme Court lawyer and human rights activist, said the parliamentary proceedings would focus on issues besides Manipur, including what action the government had taken against the Adani Group, which came in for scrutiny following share-price rigging allegations by short seller the Hindenburg group earlier this year.

"If the BJP [in its response] wants to focus on its governance record, it implies that after 10 years in power, it wants to highlight achievements," said Sandeep Shastri, national coordinator of Lok Niti Network, an election studies group. "On the other hand, if it prefers to attack the opposition, then it shows they don't have enough work to highlight achievements."

He said it would be better for the opposition to focus on issues such as the violence in Manipur rather than get into a debate about leadership issues that BJP lawmakers could use Modi's continued popularity to quash.

"What has happened in Manipur is a reflection of identity politics taken beyond acceptable levels. But then all the political actors should have seen the writing on the wall," Shastri said, adding that more should have been done to resolve the situation.

About 150 people have died in Manipur since violence erupted in May between the state's majority Meitei group and the minority Kuki/Zo people over job quotas and land rights, triggered by a court order that extended special benefits to the former that were previously the preserve of the latter.

"You have a frightening situation. The dominant group is carrying on with violence regardless of authorities. There is no democratic institution which seems capable of stopping the violence," said Colin Gonsalves, founder of the Human Rights Law Networks NGO.

"The BJP government has always managed to win elections, but violence of this kind may make people absolutely fed up."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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