PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE RARELY WON or lost over foreign affairs. But in the early stages of the 2024 race for the White House, Ukraine has already become a potent issue on the campaign trail. President Joe Biden insists he’ll support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” Former president Donald Trump claims he’ll end the war in “one day” as soon as he re-takes office. The two candidates’ dueling visions offer voters the starkest contrast in foreign policy between the major parties in 20 years, since the debate over the Iraq War played a key role in the 2004 presidential race and eventual victory by George W. Bush.
The split between Biden and Trump on Ukraine—and the divide within the Republican field of candidates over U.S. involvement in the war—reflects a broader national debate about the role America should play on the world stage in the post-Iraq and Afghanistan era.
Biden points to Ukraine as proof that robust American leadership is necessary for democracies to prevail over autocratic regimes in the great power competition of the 21st century. Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, favor “America First”-style isolationism, calling for sharp limits on U.S. involvement in other countries’ conflicts. Some longshot GOP hopefuls like former Vice President Mike Pence espouse more traditional conservative foreign policy views, supporting a more activist role for America as leader of the ‘‘free world.’’ But they are increasingly out of step with the party’s grassroots base, who have soured sharply on aid to Ukraine since the conflict began.
Just as Ukraine will likely play a pivotal role in who wins the presidency, so the 2024 election could be also a determining factor in the outcome of the war for Kyiv. The winner of the White House will set the tone for the NATO alliance backing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and help determine how much Western military assistance it gets going forward, if the war hasn’t ended by
