Hezbollah Watches and Waits
Villagers in southern Lebanon have been heading north, fearing all-out war. Most schools are closed. Israel has ordered its citizens to vacate 28 towns along the border with Lebanon. The Israeli army has exchanged fire with Hezbollah—Lebanon’s Shia political and paramilitary group—every day since October 7, resulting in casualties on both sides. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said, “We must respond to what is happening in Gaza”; its foreign minister, Amir Abdollahian, warned of a preemptive strike by Iran’s allies against Israel.
And yet, 12 days after the Hamas attack on Israel, the man who holds some of the cards and usually sets the tone, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, is still silent—no speeches, no interviews. For someone who loves to give fiery addresses to his followers and does so regularly, Nasrallah’s reticence is notable and can mean only one thing.
Hezbollah is keeping its powder (mostly) dry while Iran weighs its options and their possible outcomes. Israel has called up 300,000 reservists, the United States has sent two carrier strike groups to the Mediterranean, and President Joe Biden headed.” For Tehran, regime survival trumps all considerations—and it requires the survival of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic’s most valuable asset and a key line of its defense. Every Israeli strike on Gaza, every mass-casualty event, will factor into the calculation as both Iran and Hezbollah assess their next moves.
