Who will be China's durian king when the market expands? Do Philippines, Malaysia have a shot?

Competition between exporters is expected to intensify in China, the world's largest durian market, as the global crop has been projected to grow as much as 10 per cent by 2030 and voracious consumers are on the hunt for greater variety and better bargains.

The Philippines and Malaysia are getting ready to take on Thailand, the dominant exporter at present, over the next five years as all attempt to take the top spot as sellers of the pungent, spiky fruits in China.

The global durian market is set to expand by 7.51 per cent from 2023 to 2030, USD Analytics forecast in October, and fellow forecaster Research and Markets predicted a 9.77 per cent compound annual growth rate by 2030 in a report last month.

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China makes up 95 per cent of global durian consumption, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

The Chinese market has ample space to grow and supply would help lower prices, which consumers would welcome, said Zhao Xijun, a finance professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

"As far as the present goes, the price is pretty expensive, so the market is not saturated," Zhao said. If China received more imports, he said, "the price would definitely come down".

Durian, which has become so popular it is known in some quarters as the "king of fruits", varies in quality from one purchase to the next in China, some consumers said. The fruit, known for its strong smell, can cost anywhere from 100 to 200 yuan (US$14 to US$28) apiece.

Zhao Yu, a 37-year-old finance professional in Shanghai, pays 28 yuan per half kilogram of durian on average. She has gone as high as 400 yuan for a box, a bulk purchase that let her try a variety of flavours.

"If the durians are near home and the price is acceptable, I'll try it," she said. Overall, however, she finds the price to be "not cheap" and would prefer a wider range of sources.

Beijing consumer Wang Hui finds prices "high" and quality unstable - she suspects it varies by season. The 44-year-old would be happy to have more durians from Malaysia or the Philippines to choose from.

"The price is so high that if you pick a bad one, it'll affect your mood," Wang said.

China can handily accommodate more shipments from Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, Zhao Xijun said. All three countries aim to siphon Thailand's 68 per cent share of the Chinese market.

Durian has become a favourite tropical fruit for the middle class in China, sometimes serving as a treasured gift to newlyweds and future mothers-in-law.

However, domestic capacity is small and underdeveloped compared to Southeast Asia. Supply, demand and transport costs determine the final price for fruits on store shelves.

Malaysia, which is presently only allowed to sell frozen durian to China, is angling for a deal this year to start shipping fresh fruits. Growers there pride themselves on the bittersweet flavour of the beloved Musang King variety.

The Malaysian Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry said last year it would able to ship 22,000 tonnes of durian to China by 2030, up from 236 tonnes in 2018.

Vietnam's clearance in 2021 to sell fresh durian won it a 31.82 per cent share of the Chinese market last year. China imported a total of 1.4 million tonnes in 2023.

In the Philippines, national and local government departments are working to expand production from about 1,200 hectares to 3,000 hectares on the southern island Mindanao, said Faye Oguio, a durian specialist in the Philippine city of Davao. Philippine durians made up less than 1 per cent of China's total imports in 2023.

The national government is offering seedlings, equipment and technology to growers, Oguio said. The city, meanwhile, is vetting local packers with the qualifications to ship fresh durian to China, she added.

"The government is working across the value chain to take advantage of a very big market," Oguio said. "Our constraint now is low productivity. We are very young when it comes to technology, and hectarage is small compared to Malaysia or Thailand."

Cities in the north of China can absorb more durian imports, Zhao Xijun said, and the nation as a whole has yet to branch out into durian-based snacks and drinks.

Differing consumer tastes open the market to new types of durian, he added, meaning plenty of room for imports from other parts of Southeast Asia.

The prevalence of e-commerce and home deliveries in China should increase durian consumption nationwide and lower prices, said Victor Gao, vice-president of the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing.

But additional imports from the Philippines may get mired in politics, Gao said. Tensions over disputed areas of the South China Sea have worsened in recent months, caused by perceived violations on both sides. "Because of the increased friction between the two countries, it's difficult," Gao said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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