Will Philippines' new defence deals with New Zealand, Japan provoke China?
The Philippines has signed a logistics support agreement with New Zealand and is nearing a military access deal with Japan that will enable joint military exercises and logistical support, enhancing Manila's strategic capabilities to better counter Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Analysts say the moves align with both Wellington and Tokyo's broader strategic interests of ensuring regional stability and safeguarding their own security concerns. However, they also warn that it could provoke a reaction from Beijing, potentially escalating military aggression and diplomatic tensions in the region.
"We can expect more dangerous operations from the People's Liberation Army to test the capability and will of the Philippines and its allies," said Joshua Espena, a resident fellow and vice-president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation think tank. "This is likely to be coupled with more rebukes from China to signal a position of strength to its domestic audience."
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Under the Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement signed on Monday, New Zealand and the Philippines can provide each other with logistical support during joint exercises, training, humanitarian assistance, and disaster response operations.
The agreement follows a meeting between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in April that committed the nations to "maintaining and strengthening defence engagements while exploring new frameworks of cooperation to deepen defence ties".
Talks over an agreement for joint military exercises and humanitarian missions are also likely to be concluded "in the near future", Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said in a Monday joint press briefing with visiting New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Raymond Peters.
Manila is also on the verge of signing a deal with Tokyo that would allow forces from both sides to train in each other's territories.
Negotiations for the Reciprocal Access Agreement commenced in late November, after Marcos Jnr and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida earlier that month agreed to initiate talks to boost ties.
Philippine defence chief Gilberto Teodoro said in previous statements that the pact would enable Japanese forces to join the annual large-scale Philippines-US war games known as Balikatan.
Tokyo has a long-standing territorial dispute with Beijing over the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea that are claimed by China but administered by Japan, which calls them the Senkakus.
Japan has backed the Philippines in its own maritime row with Beijing in the South China Sea and has also supplied Manila with more than a dozen patrol vessels and other military equipment over the years.
Manila in 2020 bought four mobile long-range air surveillance radar systems from Japan to bolster its detection capabilities in the South China Sea. Two of the units have already been delivered, while the other two are expected to arrive within the next two years.
Manila's expansion of defence partnerships comes as tensions in the South China Sea grow over Beijing's assertion of its maritime claims.
The Philippines, China, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam have competing claims in the South China Sea. Beijing asserts its "nine-dash line" claim over large swathes of the waterway, but a tribunal in The Hague ruled in 2016 that those claims had no legal basis and recognised the Philippines' sovereign rights in the resource-rich waterway.
China has refused to accept the verdict.
While Japan's constitution limits its ability to supply other countries with lethal military capabilities, Espena said Tokyo could support its defence partners by providing critical enabling capabilities to strengthen their operational momentum at sea.
"The Philippines can hardly operate so much when alone [so] signing the Reciprocal Access Agreement will mutually serve interoperability," he said. "An access agreement can also enable Philippine forces to tap domain awareness capabilities with an enduring operational tempo."
He said New Zealand, a US ally, is an unusual defence partner for the Philippines given its historically low threat calculus towards China.
Like Australia, New Zealand's political orientation towards Pacific nations and its relatively limited military capabilities have prevented it from fully aligning with the US against China, Espena noted.
"However, with more maritime traffic from China against the US and allies in the Pacific Ocean, New Zealand is likely forced to softly prevent a doomsday scenario at its doorstep by looking at more distant parts of the region," Espena said.
Victor Andres Manhit, president of the Stratbase Institute think tank in the Philippines, said Manila had not maximised its cooperation with like-minded states as more were still willing to side with it in disputed waterways.
"This is effective, because what we share with these countries is a belief that we need to respect maritime rights of maritime nations like the Philippines as a basis for international law," Manhit told ABS-CBN News on Monday.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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