Manila sees more Chinese vessels ahead of Beijing's maritime arrest policy

China this week increased its number of vessels in the West Philippine Sea, Manila said, ahead of the start of Beijing's policy on Saturday to detain foreign nationals it considers to be trespassing in its maritime territory.

Analysts warn China's aggressive moves in the region, including its detention policy, could escalate into armed conflict as Beijing continues to push a strategy designed to provoke other nations "to be the first to fire".

Philippine navy spokesman Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad said on Tuesday that 146 Chinese vessels, including 22 warships, were detected this week in the West Philippine Sea - Manila's term for the part of the South China Sea that falls within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. This was up from 125 vessels last week.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

Trinidad's comments follow President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr's Monday warning to the Philippine military to be prepared for "external threats" from the South China Sea as he spoke to soldiers at Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in the northern Philippine province of Isabela.

Ahead of the start of the detention policy, Trinidad said the navy had stepped patrols in the area and were coordinating with their security partners.

Marcos Jnr's warning was a "call to readiness to any eventuality", including armed conflict, said political analyst Edmund Tayao, president and CEO of think tank the Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists.

"It is also a call to commitment and, for those who are not inclined to commit," said Tayao, who is also a professor at the Manila-based Graduate School of Law of San Beda University.

"[Beijing's actions] are a statement of vigorous aggressiveness that simply has to be tempered by today's international atmosphere of non-violence. China will continue to do what it has always been doing, which is designed to induce their counterpart to be the first to fire."

Security analyst Chester Cabalza, president of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, said Beijing would recalculate its position the day it implements its trespassing regulation.

"If the voice of Manila and the international community contradict and resist its stringent enforcement, China may become more flexible in its enforcement or totally withdraw from it," Cabalza said.

"China will temper its actions so as not to start a shooting war or confrontation. This is still part of China's grey zone tactics."

The president also highlighted the need for northern Philippines to be "well-prepared for any eventuality" considering its "proximity to Taiwan".

"The external threat has become more pronounced, more worrisome. And that is why we have to prepare."

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of mainland China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

The Philippines, China, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam have competing claims in the South China Sea. Beijing asserts its "nine-dash line" claim over large swathes of the waterway, but a tribunal in The Hague ruled in 2016 that those claims had no legal basis and recognised the Philippines' sovereign rights in the resource-rich waterway.

China has refused to accept the verdict.

Last week, the United States coastguard assured the Philippine coastguard that it would help prevent China from targeting Filipino fishermen for detention and upholding its sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea.

The Philippines and US have an agreement that calls on both countries to aid each other in times of aggression by an external power. The Pentagon has previously said it was prepared to assist Manila if the Philippines invoked the treaty.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.