US urged to take firm steps in support of Philippines amid rising South China Sea tensions
A senior US official in the Philippines has reiterated an appeal to China to stop harassing Filipino vessels in the South China Sea, but observers say firm actions are needed from Washington amid the risk of tensions spiralling out of control in the event of an accidental clash.
United States ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson on Wednesday gave reassurance of Washington's support for Manila, saying at a press briefing in Manila: "The chorus against threats to peace and stability in the South China Sea is growing louder and stronger each day."
"We urge the [People's Republic of China] to cease harassment of Philippine vessels lawfully operating in the Philippine exclusive economic zone," the envoy added, stressing Manila's "sovereign rights" and "freedoms of navigation" in the South China Sea for all ships.
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The Philippines and the US are bound by their 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) which obligates both sides to help each other in the event of an attack on one side by an external power. Washington has said the treaty's scope extended to the South China Sea dispute.
Political analyst Edmund Tayao, president and CEO of think tank Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, told This Week in Asia that US pronouncements had been helpful, noting they made China aware of the dire implications if it went beyond deploying "grey-zone tactics" to buttress its territorial claims.
"Still and all, doubts remain as this rhetoric is not consistent if we review statements before. It was the US that ... established a partnership with China before recognising it without consulting Japan which was supposed to be its close ally during the Cold War," Tayao said, referring to the establishment of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing in 1979.
"So, the US has to do concrete actions, that is to have its presence in the region more, perhaps assisting the Philippines and other southeast Asian countries in policing the region."
The US can signal to China its firm support of the Philippines over the South China Sea dispute without invoking the MDT, according to Tayao.
In 2022, US Vice-President Kamala Harris said Washington had a "profound stake in the future" of the region and stood ready to support Manila during her visit to Palawan, an island in the western part of the Philippines facing the South China Sea.
US President Joe Biden reassured Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in May last year that Washington's commitment to defending its Southeast Asian ally remained "ironclad".
Tayao said it remained to be seen if the US could be counted on by the Philippines in times of need. "Other than talk, there has not been any concrete action shown," he said.
The comments by the US envoy came in the aftermath of a June 17 clash between the Philippine navy and Chinese coastguard at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, in which several Filipino sailors were injured with one having his thumb severed. The Philippine side was attempting to resupply troops stationed on a military outpost at the shoal.
Mike Chinoy, a non-resident senior fellow at the University of Southern California US China Institute, said on Wednesday in an interview with ABS-CBN Dateline Philippines that one great danger in the South China Sea was an accidental clash between the US and China.
"There are large naval Chinese vessels and a large Chinese military presence in the waters of the Philippines. And more broadly in the South China Sea there are American naval assets that are transiting those waters just like they transit in Taiwan Strait ...there are planes flying," Chinoy said.
Analysts have flagged the potential of overlapping risks in the South China Sea to trigger a serious conflict, partly because of the proximity of some Philippine islands to Taiwan.
China views Taiwan as a renegade province that should be reintegrated into mainland control, by force if necessary. While many nations, including the US, do not officially acknowledge Taiwan as an independent state, they oppose any use of force to alter the existing status quo.
"The biggest immediate danger is an accidental clash. Chinese and American ships could run into each other, planes could collide, and people could die or get injured," Chinoy said.
Chinoy, a former Beijing-based CNN bureau chief, added that the crisis could spiral out of control even if the Chinese or the Americans attempted to avoid a fight with each other. "There's a lot of poking, jabbing, testing, and probing going on right now."
A war between the two superpowers would have catastrophic implications for the region and beyond, Chinoy said.
"I think there is a high risk, but nobody wants to get into a conflict. Even the Chinese are pushing the envelope but they are cautious. They don't want a war. President Xi [Jinping] doesn't want a war."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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