Is Prabowo Subianto fit to lead Indonesia? Surgery sparks health speculation

Indonesia's president-elect Prabowo Subianto recently underwent a major medical procedure, reigniting rumours about his health that analysts say "reflect anxieties" about his fitness for office and a scenario in which his 36-year-old vice-president has to take over.

In an Instagram post on Sunday night, Prabowo, 72, revealed he had undergone a "major operation" related to an injury to his left leg sustained during parachuting incidents while he served in the military in the 1980s.

"I am aware and understand that the medical procedure I am undergoing is full of risks to my life, I assure you that all of this is for the State and Nation," Prabowo wrote in the post.

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"Thank God, 1 week ago, a team of doctors succeeded in carrying out medical treatment to restore the injury I had sustained. God willing, in the future, I will be even more prepared to serve the country and people of Indonesia," he added.

He also thanked outgoing president Joko Widodo, 63, for paying him a visit as he recovers from the surgery.

Prabowo, who is currently serving as defence minister, is poised to take over the presidency in October following his landslide victory in February's election.

Observers say rumours have circulated about the health of the upcoming leader, fuelled by concerns that he appeared less steady on his feet and looked tired while he campaigned for the presidency and in recent political forums.

According to Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst with the Jakarta-based National Research and Innovation Agency, Prabowo's health issues have indeed been a major concern within political circles in recent months.

"But at the same time, he has tried to tackle this rumour by showing off his sporting activities such as swimming and riding a horse on his social media accounts," Wasisto added.

The broader rumours around Prabowo's health "reflect anxieties over his capacity to govern and what may happen if he is unable to," said Ian Wilson, a senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Research Centre at Murdoch University in Perth.

"This is exacerbated by the inexperience of the vice-president elect, who would, by default, become president in Prabowo's absence," he added.

If Prabowo is incapacitated or in some way unable to complete his five-year term, his running mate, incoming vice-president Gibran Rakabuming Raka would be expected to succeed him.

Gibran, 36, is the eldest son of incumbent leader Widodo and currently serves as mayor of Solo.

His journey to becoming Prabowo's vice-presidential candidate was marked by controversy and allegations of nepotism. Gibran was initially ineligible for the position due to age requirements set in the constitution, but a last second ruling by the country's top court - then led by Widodo's brother-in-law - created an exemption enabling his nomination.

The Prabowo-Gibran pairing was seen to have benefitted hugely during the elections from the tacit support of Widodo, who has maintained his high approval ratings at the end of his two terms in office.

While rumours about Prabowo's health continue to dog him, Wasisto said it is too early to speculate what might happen next. But if the relatively inexperienced Gibran was to assume the top job, he would be expected to rely on his father Widodo's guidance.

At this stage, with Prabowo preparing to take the reins of the presidency from Widodo in a few short months, analysts have also noted potential tensions between the two over concerns that Widodo is hoping to maintain his influence in the political sphere.

"Many rumours suggest this would see, in effect, a continuing Jokowi presidency, reflecting uncertainties as well about what the role of Jokowi will be in the new administration," added Wilson, referring to Widodo by his popular nickname.

Noting that "Prabowo's health has been a major public concern since before the presidential election began", Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel, said that the country's constitution would "ensure a smooth transition should health issues prevent him from serving as president".

In the event that Prabowo's health deteriorates before his inauguration, Dedi said the 2017 Election Law requires that the vice-president be inaugurated as president instead.

"The parliament, involving both the upper and lower houses, would then vote for a new vice-president from two candidates proposed by the new president.

"In this scenario, Gibran would be in a significantly advantageous position to shape the future trajectory of Indonesian politics," Dedi said.

"On the flip side, such a scenario would be unfavourable for Prabowo's inner circle and family members, who are poised to hold strategic positions in Prabowo's administration."

Dedi also noted that Gibran taking over the presidency would almost certainly mean Widodo would maintain a significant role in the next administration. "If Gibran becomes president, Joko Widodo will likely serve as a key adviser to his administration, taking on whatever role his eldest son assigns to him."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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