South China Sea: why Philippines' Duterte may be doing U-turn on pro-Beijing stance

Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who once called Chinese President Xi Jinping a very close friend, is taking a harder stance against Beijing by doubling down on his country's claims in the South China Sea, a move seen as a bid to shore up support for his family's electoral ambitions.

In a Sunday press conference aired by local media, Duterte said that as a Filipino he would insist the West Philippine Sea - Manila's term for waters in the South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone - belonged to the Filipinos, a stance that appeared to contradict his soft foreign policy towards Beijing when he was in office.

"As a Filipino, the contested area ... if you ask me, it is really ours. As a Filipino, I would insist that that part of the West Philippine Sea is ours," Duterte told reporters. "We didn't have a conflict with China then. We were free to fish in and out of the area. Nobody was bugging us and there was no issue of territory."

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In the last six years of his term, Duterte affirmed the "importance of continuing" talks in solving the maritime dispute. He worked to rebuild ties with Beijing that had frayed after the international arbitration court in The Hague rejected China's expansive claims in the contested waterway in 2016. Duterte was also hostile towards the United States and steered Manila away from military cooperation with Washington.

Political analyst Edmund Tayao, president and CEO of the think tank Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, told This Week in Asia that Duterte's new stance was a tactic to win over many Filipinos who have been wary of Beijing since his daughter Sara and the country's vice president announced that three of her family members, including the senior Duterte, would run in next year's Senate election.

"That's the only likely reason. He has to take the popular position otherwise many will likely shift [away from] support he originally enjoyed," Tayao said. "It seems he remains popular, but no longer as before."

A survey released last month by Octa Research indicated that most Filipinos supported current Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos Jnr's military and diplomacy actions in dealing with China's maritime aggression.

The survey - conducted in March as part of a series by private pollster Octa Research tracking Filipino attitudes towards the South China Sea dispute since 2021 - showed that 73 per cent of the 1,200 respondents nationwide favoured "further asserting the Philippines' territorial rights through military action, such as expanded naval patrols and troop presence in the West Philippine Sea".

"Duterte had vacillated on some issues before even when he was president. Perhaps it's a result of his having weighed issues and thought it's right to adjust or recalibrate," Tayao said of the former leader's current stance.

"In this case it must have become obvious that his stance before of being out-and-out pro-China is not popular and he needs to maintain his popularity hence the necessity to take a different position. He justified this change in position [by saying] that before there was no conflict, hence his previous stance," he added.

Security analyst Chester Cabalza, president of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, told This Week in Asia that Duterte's comments were intended to send a strong message to the Marcos Jnr administration to guard Sara Duterte's presidential bid in 2028 as the Dutertes were known for surprise moves and strategic ambiguities during elections. Marcos Jnr's tenure will end in 2028 as the president is limited to a single six-year term under Philippine law.

"It could be possible that this may be seen as revenge for Marcos' pivot to Washington after Rodrigo Duterte befriended Beijing during his tenure, but after a failed rapprochement he [Duterte] repaired his ties with the US," Cabalza said.

"This is the result of a flip-flopping foreign policy in the Philippines due to choices made by dynastic leaders amid the volatility in the West Philippine Sea," he added.

Relations between Marcos Jnr and Duterte, both of whom became allies ahead of the 2022 Philippine presidential election, started souring when Marcos Jnr sided with the US by allowing Washington to have bases in the Philippines and distancing himself from Duterte's Chinese allies.

After entering the Malacanang Palace in 2022, Marcos Jnr issued strong statements on the South China Sea dispute and promised not to abandon "even one square inch" of Philippine territory.

Joshua Espena, a resident fellow and vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation, said family interests weighed heaviest behind Duterte's recent remarks.

"He is trying to save his family's future in the realm of Philippine politics since territorial integrity is a default to get the appeal of the 'military lobby' at the expense of Marcos Jnr in the upcoming election cycles in 2025 and 2028. This is less about recantation than recalibration," Espena said.

"So it seems that Duterte is putting more smokescreens to keep Marcos Jnr guessing but ultimately win the blessing of the military lobby to ensure the longevity of their stay in the game of thrones."

Meanwhile, at a thanksgiving dinner on June 28 aboard the BRP Melchora Aquino, a Philippine patrol vessel that has been deployed in the South China Sea, former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio proposed the government file new arbitration cases against China over its actions.

"We should file another arbitration case. China is in dread of the Philippines filing another arbitration case. In fact, we should file several arbitration cases," said Carpio, who played a significant role in the Philippines' case against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that was concluded in Manila's favour in 2016.

"Let us challenge China to submit the entire Spratlys territorial dispute to arbitration by the International Court of Justice [ICJ] ... I have been saying that but let's finally and formally challenge China. China will either put up or shut up. China knows it will lose in any arbitration because its claim is very weak and very dubious. It is fictitious," he added.

At the same event, Marcos Jnr's National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano reassured the public that the administration would continue to defend the nation's territorial integrity and sovereign rights in the face of Chinese incursions.

"While we vehemently denounce and repeatedly express grave concerns on the continued hostile behaviour of our neighbour, our commitment and pursuit for peace and stability within and around our territory is not pushed to the side," said Ano.

He urged China to respect international laws in alignment with Beijing's statements.

"In the face of all these foreign incursions, we are determined as ever to progressively build our defence capabilities to effectively deter and counter all threats to our nation's peace and security," he added.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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