Election backlash looms for UK Indian diaspora's ex-poster boy Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak, once a poster boy for Britain's Indian diaspora, now faces their growing dissatisfaction amid rising living costs and economic stagnation - further hurting his prospects in the country's general election on Thursday.

The opposition Labour Party has been more than 20 points ahead in surveys for over 18 months as Britons tire of Conservative Party rule. Polls last month forecast that Sunak could even lose his own seat in the general election.

The Indian diaspora makes up about 2.5 per cent of Britain's population, meaning their disenchantment with Sunak and his Tories could prove significant.

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"A lot of pain points are coming out in the open and the larger diaspora is going with the sentiment of an anti-Tory wave. People are saying that maybe it's time to bring a new government," said Ashwin Krishnaswamy, a UK-based technology investor.

Rising living costs and disappointing economic growth have contributed to this perception, said Krishnaswamy, adding that the Conservatives are "getting squeezed from both sides because they have not increased wealth creation".

The downbeat sentiment contributed to a drubbing for Sunak's Conservatives in local elections held in May. The Tories lost control of 10 councils and more than 470 council seats, besides ceding 10 police and crime commissioners to Labour.

Since announcing snap elections about a month ago, Sunak's election campaign, which has heavily focused on promises to fix the economy and public services such as the National Health Service (NHS), has not gained much traction.

"Sunak's campaign has been about looking to the future. But in the past you [Conservative Party] have had so many leadership changes, [people are thinking] what is the guarantee that you will remain," said Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based Indian author.

Sunak, the first British Asian prime minister, has served in the position and as leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. He previously held two cabinet positions under Boris Johnson from 2020 to 2022.

"The diaspora had lots to celebrate when Rishi took charge of 10 Downing Street. The euphoria has fizzled out due to a failure to keep fundamental promises like tackling the cost of living and the National Health Service crisis," Debsarkar said.

Since late 2021, prices for many essential goods in Britain have been increasing faster than household incomes, resulting in a fall in real incomes. The phenomenon has been termed a cost-of-living crisis.

Born to parents of Indian descent who immigrated to Britain from East Africa in the 1960s, Sunak earned a Master of Business Administration degree from Stanford University and worked for Goldman Sachs and later as a partner at hedge fund firms the Children's Investment Fund and Theleme Partners.

He was elected to the House of Commons for Richmond in North Yorkshire at the 2015 general election, and supported the Brexit campaign in the country's 2016 European Union membership referendum.

Sunak was expected to help fix Britain's economic woes since the nation's withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. But gross domestic product was estimated to have increased by only 0.1 per cent last year, following growth of 4.3 per cent in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Public sentiment has also soured over the state of facilities such as health services, which have suffered from chronic under-investment, spurring frequent protests by doctors over pay disputes since last year.

"The NHS is a big disaster. There is a huge pay disparity in the NHS between different sections of doctors," Krishnaswamy said, on the reasons for the loss of confidence.

Labour traditionally enjoyed a stronger support base among British Indians, but it has weakened over the years with a new breed of richer and well-educated diaspora identifying more with the Conservatives, a trend which was only expected to accelerate under Sunak.

"However, a lot of water has now flowed between the Thames and the English Channel, so even the Indian diaspora has had second thoughts," Debsarkar said.

Labour leader Keir Starmer has been able to project the party as a stable government-in-waiting, which has resonated with voters struggling with rising costs of living.

"House rents are 100 per cent higher than six to seven years back," said Supriyo Chaudhuri, CEO of e1133 Ltd, a firm specialising in higher education, noting that it was tough for new immigrants to Britain to buy a house. "If you are a new immigrant, you can't [afford to] buy a house."

Chaudhuri, who has been living in the UK for a decade, said Sunak "does not talk about public services and the cost of living crisis", nor had he succeeded in creating business dynamism.

If Labour toppled the Conservatives, they too "will need to find a new play book" to resolve the issues, he said.

Cedomir Nestorovic, a professor of geopolitics at the ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific in Singapore, said the key to enticing voters would be solving the economic riddle.

Companies needed to be provided with opportunities to create a ripple effect of jobs and salaries, which had not come through strongly under Sunak, he said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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