Nothing Good Would Come of an Israeli War in Lebanon
Last week, former Israeli Minister and retired General Benny Gantz said that Israel could destroy Hezbollah’s military in a matter of days. But if such a thing could be done, Israel would have already done it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu similarly promised “total victory” against Hamas after October 7.
These declarations are dangerous bluster. Not only do they ultimately portend devastation, for Lebanon as for Gaza, but the military goals they suggest are maximalist and largely unattainable. Israel tends to underestimate the militias it’s fighting and to take a hammer to a problem that a hammer has never fixed.
War has been a fact of life for civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border since October 8, when, after 17 years of relative calm there, Hezbollah launched its first missiles against northern Israel in support. Some 90,000 Lebanese have been displaced, and civilian infrastructure, livestock, and agricultural land have been destroyed. Israel has targeted Hezbollah fighters with some success, killing of them—but at least 50 Lebanese civilians have also been killed.
