The Art of Thinking Clearly

By Rolf Dobelli

Have you ever . . .

• Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it?
• Paid too much in an eBay auction?
• Continued to do something you knew was bad for you?
• Sold stocks too late, or too early?
• Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances?
• Backed the wrong horse?

These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it.

Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality.

Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

• Language: English
• Publisher: HarperCollins
• Release date: May 14, 2013
• ISBN: 9780062219701

Rolf Dobelli

Rolf Dobelli is a bestselling writer and entrepreneur. He is the founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of some of the world's most famed and distinguished thinkers, scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs, and a cofounder of getAbstract, the world's largest publisher of compressed knowledge. He lives in Lucerne, Switzerland.

Reviews for The Art of Thinking Clearly

[tina0822-1 · Rating: 3 out of 5 stars]

The Art of Thinking Clearly is compiled of 2-3 page stories and examples of biases and mistakes we make in our every day thinking. Most chapters explains the reasoning and influences behind the way of thinking and suggests how we can change them. Overall it was a good read. I would recommend this book to those self-helpers, anyone trying to understand and improve themselves.

[blueviolent · Rating: 2 out of 5 stars]

FYI: I won this book from goodreads Giveaways, but that in no way influenced my review.

The Art of Thinking Clearly presents a bunch of anecdotal evidence to support commonly known fallacies in logical thinking. You know that hindsight is 20/20, we cling to our narratives, and think we'll be like the models in makeup ads if only we buy their product, plus a bunch of other semi-obvious ways in which we end up making bad decisions (or poorly rationalized flukes that still turn out okay). This book *might* be the reminder you need to think critically about what assumptions and misconceptions you are basing your decisions on. However, if you're already a critical thinker you probably won't learn too much from this book. Also, it doesn't really seem academically researched enough to be otherwise worthwhile. If it was more humorous it would at least make the obviousness more palatable.

To its benefit, you will almost definitely find at least one logical fallacy within that applies more to you personally (the, "Oh, I didn't realize it, but I definitely do that!" moment), and I suppose there's a chance that it may make a huge difference in your life. Also, it's a pretty quick read, with separate 'chapters' (a page or two) for each fallacy. So readers who prefer informational shorts over long form compositions will appreciate the format.

[rajivc_18 · Rating: 3 out of 5 stars]

It may seem a bit strange that I give this book a three star rating and not more than that. The book is fascinating in many ways, and it does a great service in revealing many of the fallacies that we live by. This is, however, a part of our character. This is us! There is enough human stupidity that exists in the world, and the 99 bite sized chapters do expose many of the myths that we live by. Yet, the book does not reveal anything of the art of thinking clearly. This is a clever title, and this is one of the reasons I bought the book.... one of the great fallacies of our times. If the book was called, The Book of Human Fallacies, I probably would not have bought it. Yet, there is enough in the book to enthrall, and keep you engaged. The writing style is simple and down to earth. I like this.

[jen6e6moore · Rating: 2 out of 5 stars]

Is there a name for the fallacy of applying a logical fallacy where one does not apply? How about for the assumption that just because you helped edit a book that turned out to be brilliant, you also have a brilliant book in you? There's a little too much of both in this for me; gave up about sixty pages in.

[maxernst11 · Rating: 3 out of 5 stars]

Leuk boekje, lekker vlot verpakt in 52 stukjes van elk drie bladzijden. Het gaat dan ook om een bundeling van columns die eerder in de krant verschenen. Veel van wat Dobelli beschrijft is herkenbaar, zo zeer zelfs dat je dikwijls denkt: dit is een open deur, ondanks de geleerd aandoende begrippen (action bias, endowment bias, enz). Alles bijeen krijg je een mooie staalkaart van de dubieuze drijfveren achter het menselijk handelen. Maar toch... echt veel bij te leren valt er niet (en dat is heus niet omdat ik g??n denkfouten zou maken). Bovendien heb ik het moeilijk met Dobelli's voortdurende verwijzingen naar de bedrijfswereld, en vooral de kansberekening bij beleggingen; dat maakt veel duidelijk over welk publiek hij vooral voor ogen had. Want ook dat is een kritiek op het boek: veel van wat Dobelli beschrijft is cultureel bepaald, en geldt vooral in het (materieel-financieel) rijke wereldje van de managers in het Westen. Tenslotte: "denkfouten", vind ik niet zo'n geschikte term; veel van wat de auteur aanbrengt berust net op intu?tief handelen; in enkele gevallen komt Dobelli er ook dicht bij aan te tonen hoe arm en schraal ?cht-rationeel handelen kan zijn; op het einde houdt hij zelfs een vurig pleidooi om je hart te volgen (is dat geen denkfout?).

[bookomaniac-1 · Rating: 3 out of 5 stars]

Leuk boekje, lekker vlot verpakt in 52 stukjes van elk drie bladzijden. Het gaat dan ook om een bundeling van columns die eerder in de krant verschenen. Veel van wat Dobelli beschrijft is herkenbaar, zo zeer zelfs dat je dikwijls denkt: dit is een open deur, ondanks de geleerd aandoende begrippen (action bias, endowment bias, enz). Alles bijeen krijg je een mooie staalkaart van de dubieuze drijfveren achter het menselijk handelen. Maar toch... echt veel bij te leren valt er niet (en dat is heus niet omdat ik géén denkfouten zou maken). Bovendien heb ik het moeilijk met Dobelli's voortdurende verwijzingen naar de bedrijfswereld, en vooral de kansberekening bij beleggingen; dat maakt veel duidelijk over welk publiek hij vooral voor ogen had. Want ook dat is een kritiek op het boek: veel van wat Dobelli beschrijft is cultureel bepaald, en geldt vooral in het (materieel-financieel) rijke wereldje van de managers in het Westen. Tenslotte: "denkfouten", vind ik niet zo'n geschikte term; veel van wat de auteur aanbrengt berust net op intuïtief handelen; in enkele gevallen komt Dobelli er ook dicht bij aan te tonen hoe arm en schraal écht-rationeel handelen kan zijn; op het einde houdt hij zelfs een vurig pleidooi om je hart te volgen (is dat geen denkfout?).

[drt_4 · Rating: 4 out of 5 stars]

Art Of Thinking Clearly Paperback – by Rolf DobelliWhy I picked this book up: It came up on YouTube which reminded me I bought it at B&N during Christmas-season one year so I picked it up. It seemed like a fun book to read. Thoughts: Cognitive errors, we all have them, Things don’t change like Camus and Aurelius saw and we interpret things differently than the past. These short chapters, based in cognitive errors, sales, psychological factors, social functions, biological, logic and he said he is not a philosopher or a Psychologist, etc. but and what he offers in these short, fun chapters are worth the read. Table of contents:1 Why You Should Visit Cemeteries: Survivorship Bias2 Does Harvard Make You Smarter?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion3 Why You See Shapes in Clouds: Clustering Illusion4 If Fifty Million People Say Something Foolish, It Is Still Foolish: Social Proof5 Why You Should Forget the Past: Sunk Cost Fallacy6 Don’t Accept Free Drinks: Reciprocity7 Beware the “Special Case”: Confirmation Bias (Part 1)8 Murder Your Darlings: Confirmation Bias (Part 2)9 Don’t Bow to Authority: Authority Bias10 Leave Your Supermodel Friends at Home: Contrast Effect11 Why We Prefer a Wrong Map to None at All: Availability Bias12 Why “No Pain, No Gain” Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing: The It’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy13 Even True Stories Are Fairy Tales: Story Bias14 Why You Should Keep a Diary: Hindsight Bias15 Why You Systematically Overestimate Your Knowledge and Abilities: Overconfidence Effect16 Don’t Take News Anchors Seriously: Chauffeur Knowledge17 You Control Less Than You Think: Illusion of Control18 Never Pay Your Lawyer by the Hour: Incentive Super-Response Tendency19 The Dubious Efficacy of Doctors, Consultants, and Psychotherapists: Regression to Mean20 Never Judge a Decision by Its Outcome: Outcome Bias21 Less Is More: Paradox of Choice22 You Like Me, You Really, Really Like Me: Liking Bias23 Don’t Cling to Things: Endowment Effect24 The Inevitability of Unlikely Events: Coincidence25 The Calamity of Conformity: Groupthink26 Why You’ll Soon Be Playing Megatrillions: Neglect of Probability27 Why the Last Cookie in the Jar Makes Your Mouth Water: Scarcity Error28 When You Hear Hoofbeats, Don’t Expect a Zebra: Base-Rate Neglect29 Why the “Balancing Force of the Universe” Is Baloney: Gambler’s Fallacy30 Why the Wheel of Fortune Makes Our Heads Spin: The Anchor31 How to Relieve People of Their Millions: Induction32 Why Evil Is More Striking Than Good: Loss Aversion33 Why Teams Are Lazy: Social Loafing34 Stumped by a Sheet of Paper: Exponential Growth35 Curb Your Enthusiasm: Winner’s Curse36 Never Ask a Writer If the Novel Is Autobiographical: Fundamental Attribution Error37 Why You Shouldn’t Believe in the Stork: False Causality38 Why Attractive People Climb the Career Ladder More Quickly: Halo Effect39 Congratulations! You’ve Won Russian Roulette: Alternative Paths40 False Prophets: Forecast Illusion41 The Deception of Specific Cases: Conjunction Fallacy42 It’s Not What You Say, but How You Say It: Framing43 Why Watching and Waiting Is Torture: Action Bias44 Why You Are Either the Solution—or the Problem: Omission Bias45 Don’t Blame Me: Self-Serving Bias46 Be Careful What You Wish For: Hedonic Treadmill47 Do Not Marvel at Your Existence: Self-Selection Bias48 Why Experience Can Damage Your Judgment: Association Bias49 Be Wary When Things Get Off to a Great Start: Beginner’s Luck50 Sweet Little Lies: Cognitive Dissonance51 Live Each Day as If It Were Your Last—But Only on Sundays: Hyperbolic Discounting52 Any Lame Excuse: “Because” Justification53 Decide Better—Decide Less: Decision Fatigue54 Would You Wear Hitler’s Sweater?: Contagion Bias55 Why There Is No Such Thing as an Average War: The Problem with Averages56 How Bonuses Destroy Motivation: Motivation Crowding57 If You Have Nothing to Say, Say Nothing: Twaddle Tendency58 How to Increase the Average IQ of Two States: Will Rogers Phenomeno59 If You Have an Enemy, Give Him Information: Information Bias60 Hurts So Good: Effort Justification61 Why Small Things Loom Large: The Law of Small Numbers62 Handle with Care: Expectations63 Speed Traps Ahead!: Simple Logic64 How to Expose a Charlatan: Forer Effect65 Volunteer Work Is for the Birds: Volunteer’s Folly66 Why You Are a Slave to Your Emotions: Affect Heuristic67 Be Your Own Heretic: Introspection Illusion68 Why You Should Set Fire to Your Ships: Inability to Close Doors69 Disregard the Brand New: Neomania70 Why Propaganda Works: Sleeper Effect71 Why It’s Never Just a Two-Horse Race: Alternative Blindness72 Why We Take Aim at Young Guns: Social Comparison Bias73 Why First Impressions Are Deceiving: Primacy and Recency Effects74 Why You Can’t Beat Homemade: Not-Invented-Here Syndrome75 How to Profit from the Implausible: The Black Swan76 Knowledge Is Nontransferrable: Domain Dependence77 The Myth of Like-Mindedness: False-Consensus Effect78 You Were Right All Along: Falsification of History79 Why You Identify with Your Football Team: In-Group Out-Group Bias80 The Difference between Risk and Uncertainty: Ambiguity Aversion81 Why You Go with the Status Quo: Default Effect82 Why “Last Chances” Make Us Panic: Fear of Regret83 How Eye-Catching Details Render Us Blind: Salience Effect84 Why Money Is Not Naked: House-Money Effect85 Why New Year’s Resolutions Don’t Work: Procrastination86 Build Your Own Castle: Envy87 Why You Prefer Novels to Statistics: Personification88 You Have No Idea What You Are Overlooking: Illusion of Attention89 Hot Air: Strategic Misrepresentation90 Where’s the Off Switch?: Overthinking91 Why You Take On Too Much: Planning Fallacy92 Those Wielding Hammers See Only Nails: Déformation Professionnelle93 Mission Accomplished: Zeigarnik Effect94 The Boat Matters More Than the Rowing: Illusion of Skill95 Why Checklists Deceive You: Feature-Positive Effect96 Drawing the Bull’s-Eye around the Arrow: Cherry Picking97 The Stone Age Hunt for Scapegoats: Fallacy of the Single Cause98 Why Speed Demons Appear to Be Safer Drivers: Intention-to-Treat Error99 Why You Shouldn’t Read the News: News IllusionWhy I finished this read: I finished because all the chapters were so short and I found it an enjoyable read. If you want to dig deeper for more comprehensive material on each topic you are able to do that. Stars rating: this was difficult for me to rate. If I rate it on depth it would be rather low but if I rate it on my enjoyment I rated it at a 4 out if 5 stars.

[writemoves · Rating: 5 out of 5 stars]

This book offers 100 examples of thinking errors and how to avoid them. As far as self-help books go, this book is very useful and one that I will re-read in the future. I have a prejudice that I have good judgments and make good decisions. But the author is right that we need to be critical of our own opinions and assumptions before we criticize others for theirs.

Easy book to read. Short chapters. Interesting examples to make his points.

Some notes from the book:

Survivor bias: people systematically overestimate their chances of success

Trying to be happier is as futile as trying to be taller

The sunken cost fallacy is most dangerous when we have invested a lot of time, money, energy, or loving something. No matter how much you have already invested, only your assessment of the future costs and benefits count.

Don't cling to things. Consider your property something that the "universe" has bestowed to you temporarily. Keep in mind that he can recoup this in the blink of an eye.

All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone," wrote Blaise Pascal.

Aim for as much free time and autonomy as possible since long lasting positive effects generally come from what you actively do. Follow your passions even if you must forfeit a portion of your income for them. Invest in friendships.

If you have nothing to say, say nothing. Simplicity is the Zenith of a long arduous journey, not the starting point.

Be all the more critical with yourself. Regard your internal observations with the same skepticism as claims from some random person. Become your own toughest critic.

Adopt a life strategy similar to a corporate strategy: write down what not to pursue in your life. In other words, make calculated decisions to disregard certain possibilities and when an option shows up, test it against your not to pursue list.

Try to avoid evaluations based on first impressions.

It is safe to assume that half of what you remember is wrong. Our memories are riddled with inaccuracies, including the seemingly flawless flashbulb memories.

News is irrelevant. In the past 12 months you're probably consumed about 10,000 news snippets – – perhaps as many as 30 per day. Be very honest: name one of them, just one that helped you make a better decision – – for your life, your career or your business – – compared with not having this piece of news.

Find out what your circle of confidence is. Get a clear grasp of it. Hint: it's smaller than you think. If you face a consequence decision outside that circle, apply the hard, slow, rational thinking. For everything else, give your intuition free rein.

[jasonhanold · Rating: 4 out of 5 stars]

Definitely some powerful thoughts!

[flydodofly · Rating: 4 out of 5 stars]

Good exercise and basis for interesting conversations. Quotes Kahnemann a little too often for my taste, but I suppose it is only in order to include every kind of behaviour/thinking and studies about it that seems relevant.I read it in German because was not sure whether it was written in German or English - am still not sure...?