Higgins Hockey Fantasy Index: 2010-2011

By Rob Higgins

ROCK YOUR FANTASY LEAGUE

Attention, hockey fantasy managers! Do you know which players offer the best value? Which player is a Cherry Pick? And who’s a Cherry Bomb? Are some players only Foxy by Proxy?

Higgins Hockey Fantasy Index is a gold mine for stats freaks—the key to unlocking hidden value and avoiding pitfalls in any hockey fantasy league. With his unique HFI system, Rob Higgins gives you the tools to make brilliant picks on draft day—and run the rest of your fantasy season like a rock ’n’ roll superstar.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Touchstone
• Release date: Sep 7, 2010
• ISBN: 9781439172629

Rob Higgins

Rob Higgins is the former cohost of the XM Radio show The Point: Fantasy Friday. He can be seen onstage with his band, Dearly Beloved. Higgins lives in Toronto.

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Copyright © 2010 by Robert Higgins

All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form whatsoever. For information address Touchstone Subsidiary Rights Department, 1230 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020.

First Touchstone export edition September 2010

TOUCHSTONE and colophon are registered trademarks of Simon & Schuster, Inc.

For information about special discounts for bulk purchases, please contact Simon & Schuster Special Sales at 1-800-268-3216 or [e-mail].

Designed by Ruth Lee Mui

Manufactured in the United States of America

10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

ISBN 978-1-4391-6944-5

ISBN 978-1-4391-7262-9 (ebook)

This book is dedicated to my coach:

BOB HIGGINS

January 31, 1950–May 14, 2006

 Contents

Foreword

Introduction: The Perils of Snap Decisions

Part 1: Hawks vs Pigeons

1. Language

2. HFI and the Higgins Fantasy Index

3. Value

4. Research

5. Durability

6. Reliability

7. Money

Part 2: The Season

8. October 2009

9. November 2009

10. December 2009

11. January 2010

12. February 2010

13. March 2010

14. April 2010

15. The Season 2009–10

Part 3: The Teams

16. Anaheim Ducks

17. Atlanta Thrashers

18. Boston Bruins

19. Buffalo Sabres

20. Calgary Flames

21. Carolina Hurricanes

22. Chicago Blackhawks

23. Colorado Avalanche

24. Columbus Blue Jackets

25. Dallas Stars

26. Detroit Red Wings

27. Edmonton Oilers

28. Florida Panthers

29. Los Angeles Kings

30. Minnesota Wild

31. Montreal Canadiens

32. Nashville Predators

33. New Jersey Devils

34. New York Islanders

35. New York Rangers

36. Ottawa Senators

37. Philadelphia Flyers

38. Phoenix Coyotes

39. Pittsburgh Penguins

40. San Jose Sharks

41. St Louis Blues

42. Tampa Bay Lightning

43. Toronto Maple Leafs

44. Vancouver Canucks

45. Washington Capitals

Part 4: The Players

46. Forwards

47. Defenders

48. Goalies

Part 5: The Future

49. Probabilities Index : Centers, Left Wing, Right Wing, Defense

50. Probabilities Index : Goalies

All Players with 09-10HFI

Acknowledgments

 Foreword

Several years ago, while enjoying some spring sun in our studio parking lot, I was approached by a young man whose bohemian appearance wasn’t any different from a hundred other musicians I’d met since we had first launched XM in Canada. I think I was digging in my pocket to offer him some spare change when he surprised me by asking if I had anything to do with our sports programming. When I confirmed that indeed I did, he politely introduced himself, and then asked if he could come on sometime to talk hockey. As bizarre as the request had seemed initially, there was something about this skinny rock and roller that resonated with me. He exuded cool; and believe me, cool is at a premium in the sports broadcasting profession. His strength, he said, was fantasy hockey and how he offered insight and strategic balance to a world that was once based solely on goals and assists.

After a moment of scrutiny, four words leapt to my mind: Why the hell not? So I gave him a shot on our XM hockey channel, NHL Home Ice, and it turned out that Rob Higgins was far more than just a fantasy guy. He was articulate, charming, thorough, intelligent, and, yes, cool. Very cool. But more important, his development of the HFI system makes him a first-ballot inductee into the fantasy sports Hall of Fame. He continues to amaze me with his dedication to the process and the fluidity with which he can alter or update his strategies. And to bring it full circle from that very first meeting all those months ago, Higgy is also one hell of a musician. Now, go win your hockey pool.

—Joe Thistel, Director of Programming, Sports & Talk, XM Canada

Oh, the anxiety. The pontificating. The sizing up and the gauging. The propaganda. The drama. The doubt. It doesn’t get any better than this.

The first three rounds are complete; you’ve spent $17 million of your $56.8-million cap on a trio of durable, reliable, stat-stuffing models of consistency from contending teams, effectively establishing a legitimate core to drive your juggernaut. But with thirty of the most hyped and/or productive NHL players already tucked away into their cozy, little roster slots by their creepy and doting owners, and that annoying online queue repeatedly telling you to take instant-fantasy-death-in-a-can Ales Kotalik with your next pick, it dawns on you that you’ve got, like, a gazillion plus one roster spots to fill in order to construct that world-beating winner you’ve been fantasizing about since the end of June. So far, you have exactly two forwards and a goalie, and $41.7 million left to spend on seventeen players who are somehow supposed to bring you that elusive gaming glory that 486 NHLers before them couldn’t.

So now what?

Well, you’ve survived the first hour without totally blowing it, and rounds four to twenty-three are where you win this thing. So, focus. Remind yourself that the thirty best players from last season came from only fifteen teams, so be selective. Remind yourself that goal scorers and goalies dominate more than a category or two, and that you’ve done your homework heading into the draft. You can do this.

By its very nature, predicting the performance of NHL players is a risky proposition. You can consume every statistic the NHL conjures up as an official quantification of its sport, memorize them all, and be able to regurgitate any facet upon request, and still not be guaranteed a dominating run in your fantasy league.

Why? Because our subjects, these possessions we refer to as assets and components while emulating the tone and timbre of our favorite general managers and professional pundits, are human beings—flesh and bone wrapped in a unique genetic order specific to them alone. Unless you’re a Sedin, I suppose. They’re all human beings who, like the rest of us, struggle with confidence, ego, insecurity, scrutiny, growth, decline, experience, and job performance.

Ask yourself this: How quickly would you recover from a broken left wrist? What, you’re not sure? You don’t know because all breaks are different and you’ve never had a broken wrist before? A reasonable response. Chances are that a complete recovery from such an injury would be a fluid situation unique to your own physical and mental makeup. People resist and recover from injury differently, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the variables that dictate the on-ice results we all pine for and, sadly, lose sleep over.

The bright side is that we do know that a player’s output will be shaped by his talent, health, opportunity, and context, the last both his within the team and his team’s within the league. Conventional wisdom suggests that professional athletes producing at a certain level will continue to do so as long as the necessary ingredients that comprise the context he needs to succeed remain in place.

Think of Alex Burrows, a talented forward who goes from boom to bust when his Vancouver linemates of the last two years, the Sedin twins, are taken out of the equation. Lined up with his usual mates, on a competitive Canucks squad, with Roberto Luongo in net, in his prime, with a healthy and steady collection of blueliners, it’s reasonable to expect Burrows to produce at a clip similar to what we saw in 2008–09. His 2009–10 season provided no evidence to the contrary. In fact, Alex was a nonfactor with Daniel Sedin out of the lineup due to injury, and then he was a hat-trick–bagging scoring machine with both Sedins once again cycling down low and feeding him the puck as he gathered speed.

Anytime personal considerations like age and decline, and/or such team considerations as success and competition change enough to affect the winning formula for a player like Alex, chances are that our expectations of him, and our perception of his fantasy value, will need adjustment.

Some players are just beasts who manage to dominate no matter whom they’re played with, how good their team is, or how strong the teams around them are. But identifying those players and knowing when to obtain them is easy-peasy. It’s the more context-sensitive players who are harder to nail down in terms of fantasy value, and they just happen to be the ones who will make the difference between a winning and losing team.

Probability. That’s what you’re confronting at the draft as you agonize over whom to take in round five. Predicting, forecasting, prognosticating, whatever you want to call it, is an ongoing process that requires your full attention all year. Should a single variable take hold of any situation, you have to be there, adjusting your gaze and acting accordingly. You must constantly update your files on players so that you’re prepared for any potential deal or waiver-wire pickup. It ain’t about prophecy; it’s about analysis. And the one thing this book is not short on is analysis.

When it comes to taking home the glory at the end of the regular season, it’s all about the late rounds of a draft, and asset management during the season. It has been said that you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it. I would tend to agree with that assessment, and when you use systematic processes to determine the likely end results not only of the league’s stars, but its supporting cast—the lesser-knowns who actually determine the winners of the millions of leagues out there—you’re often able to avoid the perils of the snap decisions that can end an owner’s season before it’s even begun. Making sound, well-informed, best-guess choices when it matters most will give you at least a fighting chance to survive the ever-increasing numbers of factors and forces plotting against the narratives that we so desperately want to unfold according to the scripts we write for these teams and players.

A scientific approach to something as trivial as a fantasy league might seem a bit dramatic to those new to the fantasy sports scene, or to those hockey veterans who still scoff at its relevance. Or those who thought using a monkey to make picks was entertaining for an audience growing more quickly than the sport itself.

I’ve said it a thousand times before, so I’d be remiss not to say it now: Fantasy hockey is the most cost-effective grassroots marketing solution the NHL has at its disposal. Watching Florida play Carolina on a Tuesday night is no match for the addictive qualities of a season-long race for bragging rights over your friends, family, and coworkers. That’s no hype, that’s plain truthin’. I’ve done it myself. I’ve turned people who had little to no interest in hockey into rabid, plus/minus-quoting fiends who would run their car into a ditch to get their roster changes in on time. Those same people now buy the hockey packages, the specialty channels, the magazine subscriptions, the premium Internet services, the jerseys, and the tickets to the games. That’s a feat the game itself famously struggles to achieve.

Fantasy Nation, once taken for granted and viewed as something parasitic by the hockey establishment, is finally getting the attention, respect, and service that it needs from its host, the NHL, as well the outlets that have aimed at serving hockey’s audience over the years.

It’s a beautiful thing.

Fallback

 Language

Why am I here?

What’s past space?

What happens after we die?

I have no idea. And in no way, shape, or form will we explore those topics in this book.

I gave up on that type of question years ago. Now, I focus on a much simpler and far more calming pursuit: establishing and attaching values to NHL hockey players.

Okay, that’s a lie. I can totally tackle at least one of those frustrating and timeless questions. Why am I here? To help you win.

Can I do that by predicting, with 100-percent accuracy, the outcome of twenty-three statistical categories for more than three hundred NHL forwards? No. Prognosticating, forecasting, whatever you choose to call it, is by no means an exact science. In rotisserie baseball, even the best in the business at dealing in probability and likelihood accept 70 percent as the gold standard for accuracy.

Hockey is a simpler game than baseball, but its variables, its inherent intangibles, make it as random a sport to play or predict as any other major North American sport.

Snapshots, box scores, and season stats don’t tell the whole story when it comes to hockey. If anything, they’re tools of deception. An NHL season is fluid, as are its likely end results. It’s the combination of statistics and sound, perceptive game analysis over the long term that paints a clear picture of player value, and that, my friends, is how I can help you win.

To achieve that, we’ll need to fill in some blanks and connect a few dots, if you will. And in order to do that, I’m going to have to hip you to some of the language I use.

HFI and RV are two statistics that, technically, do not exist. Yet, they may be two of the most important nonexistent statistics that the hockey world has never seen.

No single stat in existence gets to the core of a player’s true fantasy value better than HFI. It measures the entire stats pack, including the few and precious NHL-endorsed performance metrics that can actually be attributed to an individual, such as blocked shots and takeaways. Those limited and outmoded measures of greatness, goals and assists, have their place, but tell us little. HFI’s companion stat, RV, packs the same punch but from a purely roto, category-driven perspective.

Whether it’s a Points league, which, typically, assigns value to each eligible statistic and uses a year-end point tally to decide winners, or a Head-to-Head, category-driven league that pits different competitors, teams, and players against each other each week in a battle of the boxes, these two numbers are all you need to go from zero to hero in a fantasy hockey league without having to do the research or watch the endless hours of hockey that I do in order to validate the observations in this book.

No statistics-based analysis can tell us all we need to know, so we need to complement any conclusions to which numbers lead us with a human perspective. A sense of passion for the game that can separate the fact from fantasy fiction while taking into account the ever-increasing number of intangibles that deserve consideration over the course of an 82-game schedule. The intangibles that make the game what it is. Hockey’s culture, industry, and stats pack, for that matter, require an interpreter, pilot, or archaeologist of sorts to get to the root of what is and what isn’t.

That is how I can help you win. By marrying my nerdy hockey metrics to my innate hockey sense and the ability (i.e., time) to actually watch hundreds of hockey games, with avenues in the form of radio and television programs to share and articulate my game analysis from a true, fantasy perspective, I can help you win.

Will I be right all the time? Hell, no. For every trio of astute observations I make, it seems there lurks a rogue bomb waiting for an opening to make me look like an ass. If you happen to be the lucky soul that drafts entirely from the 25 to 30 percent that I get wrong, well, you’re in deep.

Identifying those mistakes early, before that player’s perceived value drops to meet his lousy actual value, is the key to dealing with and surviving them.

Any owner who underestimates the value of trading within their league is selling their pursuit of victory short. Negotiation is an art form and a significant contributor to success in the hockey business, and just as they do in the big leagues, there are times when we, as owners, need to cut bait and/or position ourselves to move an underperforming asset with an eye for the bigger picture. Just because Alexei Kovalev should be a lock for 35 goals doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, and if you can recognize that it’s not going to happen before everyone else does, you’ll be able to fix that mistake before it costs you too much.

So, how do you identify a situation like that? We’ll get into that, but in Kovalev’s case, after reading this book you’ll know (a) not to ever include a player like him as part of your core and that (b) he’s what we refer to as a heart-breaker. He’ll never want it as badly as you do, so why bother?

Mining for player value and illustrating the results of this type of analysis requires some classification, some grouping and some labeling, so that we can get an idea of what type of commodities are in play and in what quantities they exist.

Think of yourself as a scientist studying specimens, observing them as closely as possible without putting yourself in a position to be physically harmed. Think of this book not only as your guide, but your companion and your journal. Something worth adding to and updating as the season unfolds so that by June it is, in effect, a collaborative work that should lead to a better understanding of the season as it happens as well as the many to follow. You’ll find plenty of negative space around my work to jot down notes and thoughts of your own as you thumb through and prepare for draft day, so get busy with the pencil and leave your own mark.

In this book, you’ll not only find statistics that don’t exist but labels inspired by the punk and rock ’n’ roll music I grew up listening to. If the NHL can have a Lady Byng Memorial Trophy, I believe I can make the determination that Alex Burrows is only Foxy by Proxy, not a Cherry Pick. Any scene that’s genuinely cool has its own vernacular, its own language and slang that outsiders should find stupid and unnecessary. Think about it: How much fun would talking about baseball be if you couldn’t refer to gems like ERA and slugging percentage? We need and revel in that type of quantification without even knowing it, so put your big pointy finger away if you don’t like the idea of me creating a statistic and referring to it as HFI. It gives the large and evolving conversation that is fantasy hockey circa 2010 a common point of reference. Not an absolute one, but one that gets to the core of player values, from a true fantasy perspective.

The following are some of the labels I use in my radio show, and you will also find them in this book. We’ll start with my favorite, the one that Joan Jett’s song of the same name ushers in every Friday afternoon on XM’s NHL Home Ice.

CHERRY BOMBS

Players unworthy of consideration for your roster

For two years in a row I have been telling people that life is too short to wait for Alexei Kovalev to want it as badly as you do. He may be one of the most talented ever to lace ’em up, but he’s the prototypical Cherry Bomb, and the risk-laden upside he brings to the table isn’t worth the heartbreak.

Some Cherry Bombs with upside, like Kovalev, may be worth acquiring if they’re still sitting there at the end of a draft or auction, but by no means should they be relied upon to fuel your team’s engine.

Players with durability and/or reliability issues can find themselves earning Cherry Bomb status. A player who just can’t stay in the lineup can kill your team’s momentum, so identifying the ones with crippling durability and reliability issues is key.

Players with poor context and/or limited opportunities can be hit with the Cherry Bomb stick, too. Consider Jordan Staal. He’s talented, but as Pittsburgh’s third-line center behind Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, his opportunities on the power play, where the points are found, are limited. Given that, his role with the team is not favorable from a fantasy standpoint, and despite Pittsburgh’s above-average standing within the league, Staal is a Cherry Bomb if the expectation is that he’ll produce like an elite first- or second-tier option in all stat categories.

SICK SICK SICK

The NHL’s best: Tier 1 players who must be considered for your team’s core

A simple and effective way to assemble a winning fantasy roster is to build around a core of balanced, durable, and reliable players who drive your team’s production, night in and night out. These players don’t miss games, don’t take nights off, and don’t lose their focus. These are the dominant forces who produce from wire to wire. Think Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals and Duncan Keith of the Chicago Blackhawks.

The ideal approach is to diversify—spread your core players around the league. Consider the consequences if your two biggest producers are from teams in the same division. Because of the modern-day NHL schedule, they’re going to face each other six times over the course of a full season. Having your best players go head-to-head that often—not good.

In 2009–10 we witnessed the evolution of Henrik Sedin from a Cherry Pick (see below) into someone who is Sick Sick Sick. He didn’t need his brother to cycle and score goals for the Canucks and he didn’t need linemate Alex Burrows during Daniel’s 18-game absence, either.

To put it as simply as I can: The owner with the most Sick Sick Sick players wins. I’ll help you identify them; all you have to do is pick them up before your opponents do.

CHERRY PICKS

Genuine articles: Tier 2 players worthy of inclusion on a winning roster

Cherry Picks are legit. They play a consistent brand of hockey and their production, from a fantasy perspective, is commensurate with their hype. Think of the younger NHL players, like Steven Stamkos or Drew Doughty, who seem to be growing by leaps and bounds with every game. These are players with youth on their side for whom the quality of their linemates doesn’t matter; they carry the play and produce. Given the parity in the league, these guys are difference makers who won’t kill you with negative defensive values, no matter what ineptitude happens to be cooking around them.

Older players like Ray Whitney can find themselves earning Cherry Pick status by maintaining their health and landing plum assignments with young, relevant counterparts on contending teams. Ray isn’t Foxy by Proxy (more about that category in a moment); he’s more of a player than that. He’s a bona fide Cherry Pick.

Even secondary offensive and defensive players can be Cherry Picks. In 2006, Derek Roy and Thomas Vanek were third-line players for the Buffalo Sabres. Not having to face opposing teams’ best checking units, while possessing the skills to be threats in the offensive zone for a team that wasn’t paying them or playing them to lead the way, made for dream seasons for both players, statistically. Suddenly, these two players, whom few had on their radar at the start of the 2006–07 season, had become Cherry Picks.

FOXY BY PROXY

Tier 3 options: Not core material because they require a beneficial context

The aforementioned Alex Burrows is a textbook case. From October 8 to November 21, 2009, Mr. Hat Trick was a veritable fantasy wasteland without both of his usual linemates, the Sedin twins, healthy and in the lineup. Daniel Sedin missed 18 games due to injury, and in those 18 contests, Alex Burrows recorded exactly 2 goals, and in not a single match did he put more than 5 shots on net. Toss in his measly 8 assists, and you’ve got a player with production equivalent to a middling blueliner. He did manage two markers in the first four games of the season, with both Sedins playing, which was an encouraging follow-up to his unexpected output of 2008–09, but with Daniel out of the equation, Burrows’s production dropped below a level acceptable for a winning roster, and it’s a point that should be lost on no one.

Once Burrows was reunited with both Sedins at the end of November, he put up 24 points over his next 24 games including—count ’em—16 goals. Without the Sedins by his side, cycling and feeding him the puck, Alex was nowhere to be found as a fantasy destination. He proved to be only as good as his linemates. But in the right context, his production was among the league’s best.

Players like this are Foxy by Proxy and should not be confused with, or put on the same lofty level as, Cherry Picks. They are candidates who will require very specific working conditions to provide adequate return. Approach with caution.

RADAR LOVE

Tier 4 options: Worth scouting for your team—but the potential exists for that to change

Monitoring the development of the players on your roster is one thing, and a very necessary thing, but it’s just the beginning. You also need to be mindful of the dynamics of a league that can be more fluid than any other in professional sports. It’s not enough to simply manage your roster; you need to scout, read, follow, dig, and, most important, watch the NHL players who aren’t on your fantasy roster.

The NHL season is a long and grueling marathon that takes more of a physical toll than ever, and injuries are just one of the many variables that will affect the performance of the hundreds of players in the league. Not to be mindful of the ebb and flow that takes place is foolhardy. Foolhardy, I tell you.

Not to take advantage of the obvious shifts in momentum that can be observed over the course of an 82-game schedule is just plain dumb. If you have the ability to change your roster in your league but choose not to... well, if you still win, you’re either psychic or the luckiest human being of all time. Injuries alone should derail that approach. Other variables, like chemistry and context, just add to the mountain of forces conspiring to annihilate your gaming fantasies.

So do yourself a favor and monitor the play and production of as many players as you can. It doesn’t take much effort to run stats reports on the Web sites that host our leagues, so check out two- and three-week windows of play and keep tabs not only on the players who are picking up steam but those who are hitting the wall face first.

NHLers with Radar Love status should be on your scouting list for the upcoming NHL preseason and deserve your immediate attention.

THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT

Rookies who have or should be expected to produce at an acceptable level

Knowing which first-year players have the potential to actually deliver value in year one is of vital importance. This is especially so in keeper leagues with rookie components, but even in one-off, season-long head-to-head or points-driven leagues, rookies can be a cheap source of fuel if their team provides them with the right context.

Freshman players who earn Alright status are the ones who also earn the trust of their coaches and teammates, who, in turn, give them opportunities to make a difference on the score sheet.

In 2009–10, the Colorado Avalanche were the perfect freshman storm. They had skilled and hungry rookies in the organization. They had a coach in Joe Sacco who possessed the magical motivational touch required to harness their collective youthful energy. They had a goalie in Craig Anderson who was hell-bent on proving himself as a legitimate first-string NHL goaltender. And they had a ton of roster spots to fill, especially up front, as veteran Joe Sakic retired after the 2008–09 season.

As a result, first-round draft pick Matt Duchene was an automatic choice as the team’s second-line center behind Paul Stastny. And, therefore, an automatic viable rookie option who might actually make an impact from a fantasy perspective in 2009–10. The only question marks surrounding Duchene’s contribution going into last season were how long it would take him to adjust to the size and spend of NHL players and how bad his plus/minus rating might be by the end of the year.

The answers to those questions came early in the schedule as Colorado proved that their hot start wasn’t an aberration, and Joe Sacco proved that you can win with kids if you teach them well and give them the opportunity to develop the confidence that is vital for success in the NHL.

The Avalanche, without knowing it, really, proved to us all that dismissing rookies as a component of a winning fantasy roster, no matter what positional requirements your league may set out, is not all right.

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Players who get more attention or value attached to them than they deserve

Remember Fabian Brunnstrom? He of the import free-agent frenzy, followed by the hat trick in his first game, followed by the season of decline?

Yeah. Water always finds its level, and when your season is 82 games long, imposters get exposed. It may take as many as 40 games before a player’s production levels off, bringing his year-end totals into the appropriate range, but for the most part, paces too good to be true usually are, and identifying those situations before your opponents do presents you with the unique opportunity to sell high, bringing in return a player who will actually outproduce the one you’re giving up.

Looking back at 2009–10, New York Ranger rookie defenseman Michael Del Zotto serves as a solid example. He started the season as the rookie of the month for October, putting up 12 points in his first 14 games, including 3 power-play goals and a plus-3. His HFI of 2.05 ranked him among the top ten blueliners, and the Rangers were not only winning hockey games, but were scoring goals to get it done. Should we have been surprised, then, that for the second year in a row the Rangers started a season looking able and confident, only to slip into passive mediocrity by January—regardless, it seems, of personnel or coaching changes? But that’s another story for another day; the point here is to recall the insane amount of hype that greeted Del Zotto’s first month in the NHL.

While dealing a player like that so early into the season wouldn’t cross the minds of many—the logical person would sit back and enjoy racking up the points until they go dry—it’s the first thing I think of. If I determine that both the New York Rangers and Michael Del Zotto could not possibly maintain—or, even, in some cases replicate—an established momentum, I would advocate turning that perceived equity into a legitimate, durable, and reliable asset.

DURABILITY

No fancy name here, just one superimportant factor to consider before acquiring any player

I’m going to be using this word quite a bit in this book, and after reading it you should be using the word as well. Like, all the time, okay? Durable NHLers do not miss hockey games and will play through pain to stay in the lineup. If a player isn’t durable, you don’t want him on your team. It’s that simple. There are just too many other options to get hung up on, and commit to, assets that can’t reciprocate. If a player is determined to be a genuine Tier 1 to Tier 3 option, as well as durable, the only thing left to think about before seriously considering an acquisition is reliability.

RELIABILITY

Durability’s best friend

It’s another simple truth: Players who are reliable can be expected to meet the expectations we attach to them on a consistent basis. If you’ve found a specimen who’s productive and appears to be the right fit for your team, I highly recommend that you determine whether the player has any durability or reliability issues before making the move to acquire him. Players with reliability issues will produce in an inconsistent fashion, both within a single season and/or over the course of a career. Jeff Carter of the Philadelphia Flyers, despite being a beast of a specimen (that’s a good thing), has been known to take nights off from time to time, something that has been painfully evident to Flyers fans—and for that reason he simply hasn’t earned reliable status. He’s a Cherry Pick—there can be no doubt about that. His season totals are too good for him not to be. But Sick Sick Sick he isn’t.

HAWKS VERSUS PIGEONS

Remember when your father told you there are people who make things happen and those who watch things happen, and that you shouldn’t be the latter? If you don’t remember that, it’s because you’re either an orphan or someone whose father didn’t like them. I can’t even think of another explanation. So, if you’re not in the former category, it’s clear that your dad never really expected much from you to begin with and thought it best that you be more of the watcher type.

In life, as in fantasy hockey, there are Hawks and there are Pigeons. Hawks do their homework. They identify both the good and bad values in the league. Hawks make things happen. They win every time. Pigeons watch leader boards instead of hockey games. Pigeons have no sense of player value. Pigeons think in terms of point totals. Pigeons make poor decisions. Pigeons lose every time. (Pigeons also have no sense of humor.)

Before I continue, let me acknowledge something: I’ll bet you totally had no idea this book was going to be so mean to orphans, did you? If there’s a daddy issue out there, I have it, believe me. In fact, my saying believe me just then is, in itself, probably some telltale indicator of daddy issues. Sigh... Something tells me that once you’ve—scratch that, once I’ve—spent six months playing with words, alone, overtly blue passages like this become an inevitability. Please excuse its random and borderline offensive nature. It shouldn’t happen again for another sixty pages or so.

MICK KERN

LANGUAGE AND THE SACRED CLOTH

Maybe it only seemed as if the majority of the hockey media across North America, particularly in English-speaking Canada, tut-tutted the choice of Jacques Martin as the new head coach of the Montreal Canadiens during the summer of 2009. In the wake of the post–All Star Game implosion by Les Glorieux, underscored by a seemingly endless litany of public embarrassments off the ice, and the subsequent playoff sweep at the hands of their age-old rivals, the Boston Bruins, the Habs were ripe for a reboot. General manager—and former captain of the team during far better days—Bob Gainey set out to do exactly that. He gutted the underachieving club, simultaneously removing himself from behind the bench, where he had been since firing good friend Guy Carbonneau late in the season.

When the fog of overhyped 100th-anniversary celebrations finally lifted, the task of setting Les Canadiens back on the righteous path was immense. The fans and media debated the merits of Gainey’s free-agent signings, yet it was the hiring of Martin that garnered the most criticism.

Hockey media types who should have known better pounced on the hiring as an example of the shallow talent pool Montreal has to draw from, owing to the fact the head coach of the Canadiens must be able to speak French, the dominant language in the province of Quebec. That very qualification immediately disqualifies the vast majority of coaching candidates. Many cited this as the key reason that Montreal would never again ascend to sustained relevance in the National Hockey League.

The argument is a sound one, and in this day and age of globalization, maybe it is time for Quebecers to step out from behind the tradition of centuries-old parochialism and embrace the world. For any other industry, cold reality may have dictated precisely such a course, but the Montreal Canadiens are not in any other industry.

Regardless of the relative lack of success since their last Stanley Cup championship in 1993, the Habs have remained one of the pop-culture pillars of Québécois society; they are one of the pop-culture pillars of all Canada, for that matter, a necessary respite from the hegemony that is Leaf Nation.

The Canadiens’ link to their past is carefully nurtured by the keepers of the flame, a shared responsibility taken on by the team, the media, and the fans. While the club has long been the agent of representation for a nation locked within a nation, the Canadiens also reflected all that was good about Canada. A team that succeeded by pooling the talents of French and English, for there are almost as many anglophone stars as francophone stars in the fabled past of the Habs. The influx of European players added another color to the team’s palette, and diminutive and courageous Finn Saku Koivu wore the C on the front of his sweater for almost a decade.

Yet there was open criticism of Koivu for not being able to speak French, despite being with the club for years. In Quebec, it was important—no, it was personal—that the captain of the Montreal Canadiens could not converse in the mother tongue of the land. Past players who struggled with the language, but at least made the attempt, were held close to the bosom of the fans. The men who don the bleu, blanc, et rouge are more than just hockey mercenaries, they are ambassadors for the province, for the nation of Quebec, and the people who live within, and without, its borders. To not speak French is as unacceptable as the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs not being able to speak English. It matters. It matters a lot.

To the English hockey media who looked down their noses at the fools in Montreal who impose linguistic qualifications on their hockey team, well, they’ve sorely missed the point. If anything, the culture behind the Montreal Canadiens is one of the last ties we have in professional sports to the outdated notion of community. The Habs are a business like the other twenty-nine NHL franchises, but one whose bedrock of support is predicated upon the belief that they are us and we are them. And in Quebec, that means French. To have it any other way would serve to sever the ties that bind, to dilute the blood.

It is unthinkable.

HFI (āch-ef-ī) n. a hockey statistic that takes a per-game perspective on player value and is driven by the relevant and vital statistics associated with a given position

WHY IT MATTERS

• It considers the entire stats pack.

• It does so from a per-game perspective.

• It gets to the root of a player’s true gaming value better than any other single NHL statistic.

THE HIGGINS FANTASY INDEX

• It’s where the HFIs are born and live.

• It lists the best producers in the game—from first to worst.

WHY DOES ANY OF IT EXIST?

• I just wanted to win.

SYSTEMS WITHIN SYSTEMS + HUMAN ELEMENTS = WHO IS BETTER THAN WHOM

In the early days, I’d watch the games, call shenanigans on the dogs, file imaginary check marks on the players. I’d create a vision of the totality of their stats packs in my mind and would compare those impressions with players of their peer group.

CONSIDER THE WHOLE STATS PACK FROM A RATE-BASED PERSPECTIVE

I wouldn’t sweat if you snagged Joe Thornton before me, because Zach Parise was still out there. The modern era hath provided me with computers and software. Impressions have been replaced by files with specifics.

I’d never use point projections as a way to prioritize roster options; I’d prioritize based on value.

IDENTIFY THE BEST VALUES, PRIORITIZE, AND ACQUIRE

Even as recently as a few years ago, very few in the broadcast community were concerned with meeting the needs of the hockey fans like me: the addict sorting through way too many stats and scenarios, trying to figure out who it was that was gonna make with the numbers I was after. The fans for whom an NHL season would not be the same without building a team of their own to compete against their associates and rivals. The fans who didn’t have a stat to call their own, one that actually reflected the stats pack as a whole, actually getting at the root of true fantasy value.

HFI exists because it needs to. It’s taken years of tweaking and refining to arrive at a system that reflects a player’s true value, but this book is the result of that evolution.

It is intended to share the approach that has helped me win consistently, while offering my unique perspective on player values.

My approach? Watch games and do the homework. By watching the games, you stay on top of reality; by doing the homework, you stay on top of the gaming. When you do both, you can live the dream and win—over and over and over. An exact science, it isn’t. But putting your best foot forward, it is.

It so happens that my brand of homework—obsessive, since before my teens—led to my taking an interest in the whole stats pack of a player, not just the point totals. The glory guys, the players who wait on the perimeter and finish five-man rushes, have always been celebrated in hockey’s annuals and record books, but what about the guy who makes the first pass out of the zone so effectively for 82 straight games? Where’s his glory? Where’s his celebration?

Reality may not be as generous with its attention when it comes to the lesser-known, yet