Reese on Play - An Introduction to Good Bridge
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Reese on Play - An Introduction to Good Bridge - Terence Reese
PART I
MAINLY ATTACK
CHAPTER I
WHAT COUNTS IN PLAY
GOOD players differ from average players mostly in this: that the good player tries to play all fifty-two cards, and the average player plays only the twenty-six which he can see. A player may have first-class technique, but if he plays blind, in the sense that in the play he does not try to reconstruct the unseen hands, he cannot be better than fair; while a player who does this, even if he knows little of elimination and nothing of squeeze play, is a player in a thousand.
To count the opponents’ hands requires no special talent. From a defender’s side, for example, the distribution of the suit led is often established at the first trick and almost always when the suit is played a second time; then a round or two of trumps by declarer and nine times out of ten it is possible to say how many trumps he started with. So in most cases the distribution of two suits is known after three or four leads; and as a rule the picture can be completed a trick or two later. There is nothing very difficult or abstruse about this kind of analysis; but it does require a conscious effort, and very few players consistently make the effort.
It is not so easy for declarer to gauge the distribution of the defending hands; he has much less to go on, especially in respect of inferences from the bidding. In the early stages of most hands declarer has to rely on his knowledge of simple probabilities, and on the theory of symmetry; as the play develops, the picture of the enemy distribution becomes more clear. There is nothing very remarkable about the hand which follows; but it will serve as a starting-point for discussion.
E-W were vulnerable and North dealt. The bidding was:
The A was led, followed by another Spade which declarer trumped. The problem was to place the missing Queens correctly. Declarer decided that as the opponents had bid to Four Spades vulnerable, the trumps were more likely to be 3–1 than 2–2. So when East followed to a second trump, South successfully finessed the Jack.
This hurdle over, it remained only to find Q. As West had a singleton Heart, it was likely that he had the long Clubs. To complete his count of the hand South played Diamonds before tackling the Clubs. After three rounds of Diamonds it was established that East held six cards in the red suits; as East had made the overcall of One Spade, it was likely that he had six Spades, so declarer finessed Clubs against West with every confidence.
Only the two Aces were lost, so South landed his contract of Five Hearts. Most players would have done as much, but although the play was not difficult, it does raise some important points. First of all, the finesse in trumps before much was known about the East-West hands: there was an inference to be drawn from the bidding that the trumps were more likely to be 3–1 than 2–2, but suppose there had been no opposition bidding: then would it have been right to finesse trumps or to play for the drop?
The answer depends on two things: simple probabilities and the theory of symmetry. Probabilities are the safer guide and we will look at them first.
The Simple Probabilities
Precise odds can be quoted to show the likely distribution of any number of outstanding cards. The odds are as follows:
Two cards will be divided 1–1 fifty-two times in a hundred, 2–0 forty-eight times. Other things being equal, therefore, it is slightly better to play for the drop than to finesse with King and one other card outstanding.
Three cards will be divided 2–1 seventy-eight times, 3–0 twenty-two times.
Four cards will be divided 3–1 fifty times, 2–2 forty times, 4–0 ten times. But although 3–1 is rather more probable than 2–2, it does not follow from this that when nine cards are held and a Queen is missing, it is better to finesse than to play for the drop of the Queen. The odds vary every time a card is played: when the moment arrives for declarer to make the decision on the second round of the suit, the odds slightly favour the play for the drop. So when the trump suit was played in the hand above, simple probabilities favoured the play for the drop on the second round rather than the finesse.
Five cards will be divided 3–2 sixty-eight times, 4–1 twenty-eight times, 5–0 four times.
Six cards will be divided 4–2 forty-eight times, 3–3 thirty-six times, 5–1 fifteen times, 6–0 once.
Seven cards will be divided 4–3 sixty-two times, 5–2 thirty-one times, 6–1 seven times, 7–0 less than 0·5 times.
Knowledge of probabilities is of considerable importance in play. For example, a declarer should know that a finesse, which is a fifty-fifty chance, is a better proposition than the play for the 3–3 split of six outstanding cards, but not so good as the play for a 4–3 split of seven outstanding cards. Of course there are generally clues available which affect normal expectation. For example, one player may be known from the bidding or from the play to have unusual length in one suit. Then naturally his partner is more likely to have length in another suit. Apart from such direct inferences there is one other factor to be taken into consideration, and that is the so-called theory of symmetry.
The Theory of Symmetry
Some players speak of the Law of Symmetry
, but it is at best only a theory, whose basis is this: that from the character of his own hand pattern a player can draw inferences concerning the patterns of the other hands and of the distribution of the four suits. If a player has four cards of a suit, certain mathematical probabilities can be laid down concerning the likely distribution of the remainder of that four-card suit. Those who have great faith in the theory of symmetry contend that those probabilities are affected by the distribution of the hand in which the four-card suit is held. If you have a common 4–4–3–2 pattern, they say, you are likely to find a similarly balanced remainder for your four-card suits; but if your shape is 7–4–1–1, then the suit in which you hold four cards is likely to be distributed in an unbalanced way throughout the whole deal, say 5–4–3–1, 6–4–2–1, or even 7–4–1–1.
To put this argument at its simplest, the contention is that if you have yourself an unbalanced hand pattern, such as 6–5–1–1, then you are likely to find that your long suits break badly against you.
It must be stated at once that this argument has no support among mathematicians. It is easy to show that if you divide a pack into two halves of twenty-six cards each (which, in effect, is done in every deal), the distribution of the cards among one set of twenty-six cards cannot be affected by the distribution among the other set. Nevertheless it may be that this rationalistic argument oversimplifies the matter. The fact that the shuffle is imperfect gives ground for supposing that mathematical probabilities do not express the true odds in actual play. The opinion of most expert players is that unbalanced patterns do tend to co-exist in one deal. They trust in this to the extent of playing for a 3–1 rather than a 2–2 break when either dummy’s hand or their own is unbalanced. So far as can be judged, experience does support the belief that one singleton is likely to be balanced by another. The hand which began this discussion is an example. The player with firm belief in the theory of symmetry would be influenced to finesse trumps rather than to play for the drop, because his own hand pattern was an unbalanced 6–4–2–1.
A more extravagant belief is that a player’s hand pattern is more likely than normal odds suggest to be reflected in the distribution of his long suit throughout the entire deal. If you have a 7–2–2–2 pattern, it is said, you may expect the remainder of your 7-card suit to be divided 2–2–2 among the other hands. There are opportunities for research on this subject.
The conclusion is this: that when the odds are mathematically very close, as they are when it comes to finessing or playing for the drop of the Queen with nine cards, symmetry is a better guide than nothing. If there are singletons about, then it may be best to play for a 3–1 division.*
A Count to Avoid a Finesse
We have wandered some way from the original hand, but there is one more point about it which is worth noticing: that is declarer’s play of three rounds of Diamonds in order to complete his count of the hand. Although in general it is more difficult for declarer to count the hands than it is for a defender, declarer has this advantage, that he can plan the play so as to obtain a complete picture of the hand. He does this in the following hand.
South plays in Four Hearts after West has made an overcall of One Spade. West leads the K continues and with three rounds of the suit in order to kill dummy’s 9. South plays Hearts and West wins the second round and exits with a Heart. Declarer has now the problem of avoiding a loser in Clubs. There is a chance that the Diamonds will break, and also the chance of a Club finesse. Before testing the Diamonds it is correct technique for South to play off the last trump, discarding a Club from dummy. Three rounds of Diamonds follow, but East is found to have the suit guarded. Then K is led and another Club; East plays the 10, but as he is known to have a Diamond for his last card the finesse is refused and the doubleton Queen is brought down—not by looking at West’s hand but by counting East’s.
Testing the Lie
A hand like the last one is a perfect test of the difference between the player who goes ahead without thinking of what the other players hold, and the good player who explores every means to discover how the cards lie. The next hand is a slightly more advanced example of the same principle.
South plays in Five Diamonds after West has made an overcall of One Heart. As it happens, Three No-Trumps would have been an easier contract.
West leads K on which East plays the 2. West then switches to Diamonds and declarer takes two rounds, finishing in dummy. There is a reason for this. South can see that he may lose a trick in Spades as well as in Clubs. He wants to get a count on the Spade suit, and an important preliminary is to find out how the Clubs lie, if necessary by playing four rounds. When he leads Clubs South wants the trick to be won by West, for it would interfere with his plans if he had to trump a lead of Hearts from East.
So to the fourth trick a small Club is led from dummy and the Jack is won by West’s King. West returns a Club, won in dummy. Declarer ruffs a Club, draws the last trump and leads a low Spade, finessing the 10. Then he leads the fourth Club from dummy and discovers for certain that West started with four cards in this suit. West is known to have had two Diamonds and in all probability, since he bid them, five Hearts. So it is clear that West’s K is now single; accordingly South plays a small Spade to the Ace and not one of his honours. Had West turned up with only three Clubs declarer would have placed him with three Spades and 5–3–3–2 distribution. For remember that East played the two of Hearts on the first trick, from which it was reasonable to infer that East had three Hearts and not a doubleton.
Inference and Hypothesis
The next hand shows something rather more difficult than anything we have met so far. Declarer’s process of thought is carried one stage farther. The picture of an opponent’s hand has to be based on a premise which is purely hypothetical.
South made a third-hand opening of One Spade and West overcalled with Two Hearts. North raised to Two Spades and when East said Four Hearts, South bid Four Spades, which was passed all round.
West opened 3 and East won with the Ace. East returned 2 and West won with the Jack, cashed the K and played A.
In actual play South led the Q at this point, and although the Diamonds lay favourably he went one down as he had to lose a trick in trumps. There was no reason to suppose that West had the K alone, but nevertheless South should have played on that assumption. The reasoning is as follows:
The opposing Clubs appear to be divided 4–4 and the Hearts 5–4.
Declarer cannot afford to lose a trick in Diamonds, so he must assume that East has K x and West x x x.
If this is in fact so, West can have only one Spade.
If West has only one Spade, then the only hope is that he has a singleton King.
Placing the Cards
Inferences from the play sometimes make it possible to place the cards exactly, always a satisfying achievement. Declarer achieved a spectacular success on the following hand.
E-W were 40 up, and West opened with a bid of Two Hearts, playing the Two-Club system. This was passed round to South, who to save the game hazarded Two Spades. West doubled and all passed. As West had opened with a two-bid, his double was for penalties rather than for a take-out.
The K was opened and when dummy went down South regretted his lack of caution; it looked as though he was in for a heavy set, for it was obvious from the bidding that East had a singleton Heart. However, after K had met with a discouraging discard, West led a low Spade; the 10 was played from dummy and