Trials and Transformations, 2001–2004: The Howard Government

By Tom Frame

Few periods in Australian political history have generated more controversy than 20012004. Trials and Transformations examines the Howard Government's electoral revival in 2001, the collapse of HIH Insurance and Ansett Airlines, and the MV Tampa and 'children overboard' affairs, as well as the military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Frank Bongiorno, Simon Crean, Philip Ruddock, John Howard, and others also consider the escalation of the history wars, policy announcements in health and the environment, and the continuing strong performance of the Australian economy. This third volume in the Howard Government series draws on official documents, private papers, and personal items donated to UNSW Canberra, now held in the Howard Library at Old Parliament House.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Independent Publishers Group
• Release date: Mar 1, 2020
• ISBN: 9781742244129

Book preview

TRIALS AND TRANSFORMATIONS, 2001–2004

PROFESSOR TOM FRAME AM has been a naval officer, Anglican Bishop to the Defence Force, a member of the Australian War Memorial Council, a theological college principal and a cattle farmer. He is a graduate of UNSW with an Honours degree and a doctorate in history. He became Professor of History at UNSW Canberra in July 2014 and was appointed Director of the Public Leadership Research Group in July 2017 with responsibility for the establishment of the Howard Library at Old Parliament House. He is the author or editor of more than 45 books, including HMAS Sydney: Loss and controversy, Stromlo: An Australian observatory, The Life and Death of Harold Holt, Evolution in the Antipodes: Charles Darwin and Australia and Gun Control: What Australia got right (and wrong).

TRIALS AND TRANSFORMATIONS, 2001–2004

THE HOWARD GOVERNMENT

VOLUME III

EDITED BY TOM FRAME

A UNSW Press book

Published by

NewSouth Publishing

University of New South Wales Press Ltd

University of New South Wales

Sydney NSW 2052

AUSTRALIA

newsouthpublishing.com

© Tom Frame 2019

First published 2019

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

This book is copyright. While copyright of the work as a whole is vested in Tom Frame, copyright of individual chapters is retained by the chapter authors. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part of this book may be reproduced by any process without written permission. Inquiries should be addressed to the publisher.

ISBN:   9781742235820 (paperback)

9781742244129 (ebook)

9781742248547 (ePDF)

Design Josephine Pajor-Markus

Cover design Luke Causby

Cover image John Howard during Question Time in the House of Representatives, 14 August 2000.

Printer Griffin Press

All reasonable efforts were taken to obtain permission to use copyright material reproduced in this book, but in some cases copyright could not be traced. The editor welcomes information in this regard.

This book is printed on paper using fibre supplied from plantation or sustainably managed forests.

CONTENTS

Contributors

Preface    Tom Frame

1Setting the scene    Tom Frame

PART I: THE TAMPA CONTROVERSY

2The editorial view    Andrew Blyth

3An alternate crew    Mike Deeks

4A uniformed legal perspective    Michael Smith

5A commander’s perspective    Bob Morrison

PART II: THE 2001 ELECTION AND ITS AFTERMATH

6Turning around the votes – the 2001 election    Murray Goot

7The challenge of opposition    Simon Crean

8A certain political scandal    Tom Frame

9The conduct of public inquiries    Scott Prasser

10 The Latham factor    Frank Bongiorno

PART III: INTERACTING WITH A CHANGING WORLD

11 Immigration and public opinion    Philip Ruddock

12 Trade and economic growth    Mark Vaile

PART IV: CONFLICT AND CONTROVERSY

13 Afghanistan – a war without end    William Maley

14 Iraq and the politics of alliance relationships    Albert Palazzo

PART V: THE POLEMICS OF THE PAST

15 The history wars    Zareh Ghazarian and Jacqueline Laughland-Booÿ

16 National identity as a political tool    Kim Murray

PART VI: PORTFOLIO MATTERS

17 Economics and the environment    Aynsley Kellow

18 Transport in the post-Ansett age    David Hodgkinson

19 The politics of health    James Gillespie

PART VII: CLOSING REFLECTIONS

20 ‘You knew what he stood for’    Fiona Wade

21 The view from Kirribilli    John Howard

22 Postscript: appraisals and assessments    Tom Frame

Appendices

IThe Third Howard Cabinet and Ministry    Darren Aguis

II Public inquiries appointed by the Howard governments, 1996–2007    Scott Prasser

Notes

Acknowledgments

Index

CONTRIBUTORS

DARREN AGUIS was a University of New South Wales (UNSW) professional staff member from 2018 to 2019. He joined the university through the Professional Graduate Program and was seconded to the UNSW Canberra Public Leadership Research Group. A Chinese speaker, he undertook his academic studies in Australia, Taiwan and China, culminating in a postgraduate qualification in translation studies. His interest in Australian politics began as a young boy watching Prime Minister Howard on the evening news and a desire to understand the decision-making process of those in power. His continuing research interests include East Asian Political Studies, International Relations and Linguistics.

ANDREW BLYTH is a senior member of staff at UNSW Canberra. More recently, Blyth was the former CEO of the ACT & Region Chamber of Commerce and Industry and a former chief of staff and senior adviser in the Howard Government. He holds an undergraduate degree in government and postgraduate qualifications in business and international relations. In 2012 he was awarded a Fulbright Professional Scholarship in Australia–US Alliance Studies that he used to conduct research at the University of Texas in Austin into off-grid energy solutions. He is a contributing author to The Long Road: Australia’s train, advise and assist missions (UNSW Press, Sydney, 2017); The Ascent to Power, 1996: The Howard Government, Volume 1 (UNSW Press, Sydney, 2017) and Back from the Brink, 1997–2001: The Howard Government, Volume II (UNSW Press, Sydney, 2018). Andrew is currently researching the role and effectiveness of think tanks in the development of public policy through a professional doctorate. Andrew has been admitted as a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.

FRANK BONGIORNO AM is Professor of History at the Australian National University and Head of the School of History in the Research School of Social Sciences. He has previously held posts at Griffith University, the University of New England and King’s College London. In 1997–98, he was Smuts Visiting Fellow in Commonwealth Studies at the University of Cambridge. He is a fellow of the Royal Historical Society and the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and is the author and co-author of two books on the Labor Party in Australia. He has published on various aspects of Australian history, including politics, sexuality and religion. His most recent book is The Eighties: The decade that transformed Australia (Black Inc. Books, Melbourne, 2015).

SIMON CREAN was a Cabinet minister in the Hawke, Keating, Rudd and Gillard governments, holding portfolios in the areas of science and technology, primary industry and energy, employment, education and training, and trade. He was Leader of the Opposition from 2001 to 2003 and former Deputy Leader of the Opposition from 1998 to 2001. He served as federal member for Hotham (1990–2013). Prior to being elected to the House of Representatives he was President of the Australian Council of Trade Unions from 1985 to 1990. Crean is a graduate of Monash University. He is currently chair of the Australian Livestock Exporters’ Council, a board member of the Museum of Australian Democracy at Old Parliament House, deputy chair of the European Australian Business Council, member of the Monash University Council and a member of the Linfox Board.

MIKE DEEKS CSC had a 32-year naval career including command of three Oberon class submarines and the replenishment ship, HMAS Success. His last post was Senior Defence Officer in Western Australia and Commander of the Australian Submarine Group (2001–04) for which he was awarded the Conspicuous Service Cross. He retired as a Commodore in 2005. He pursued a career in marine and defence Industries, holding senior executive roles with L3 Nautronix, Raytheon and, most recently, Civmec. He has also held non-executive directorships with the Pilbara Ports Authority and the Dampier Port Authority, deputy chair of the Governing Council of Challenger Institute and member of the West Australian State Training Board. Deeks was appointed as the Western Australian Agent General to the United Kingdom, Europe and Israel in July 2018, based in London. Deeks has a Bachelor of Arts (UNSW) and a Masters of Management (MGSM).

ZAREH GHAZARIAN is a lecturer in politics and international relations in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University. He is a leading commentator on politics and government and regularly contributes to the political debate by appearing on national and international media. He has published widely in academic journals and his teaching and research interests include political parties, elections and public policy. He was a fellow in the Australian Prime Ministers Centre at the Museum of Australian Democracy at Old Parliament House in 2015–16. His most recent book is The Making of a Party System: Minor parties in the Australian Senate (Monash University Publishing, Melbourne, 2015).

JAMES GILLESPIE is associate professor in Health Policy in the Menzies Centre for Health Policy and the Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney. His research interests focus on the better integration of the health system to meet the challenges of chronic illness and mental illness. His research on health services focuses on the interaction of public and private sectors and politics of health in Australia. He is author of Making Medicare: The Politics of Universal Health Care in Australia (UNSW Press, Sydney, 2013). His work on the history of international health has focused on relations between institutions, national and international politics. He has also published on the development of international agencies and health programs.

MURRAY GOOT is an emeritus professor in the Department of Modern History, Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University. His most recent book is The Conscription Conflict and the Great War (Monash University Publishing, Melbourne, 2016), co-edited with Robin Archer, Joy Damousi and Sean Scalmer. He contributed to The Ascent to Power, 1996: The Howard Government, Volume 1 (UNSW Press, Sydney, 2017) and Back from the Brink, 1997–2001: The Howard Government, Volume II (UNSW Press, Sydney, 2018), and is currently exploring the history of political campaigning in Australia and the history of opinion polling in Australia, Britain and the United States.

DAVID HODGKINSON is an associate professor in the Faculty of Law at the University of Western Australia and a consultant with international law firm Herbert Smith Freehills. He was formerly Director of Legal Services at IATA, the organisation of the world’s airlines, in Montreal and Geneva. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree (First Class Honours) and Bachelor of Laws and Master of Philosophy degrees. He was also a postgraduate fellow at Columbia University. Earlier in his career he was Senior Legal Research Officer at the High Court of Australia. He is the co-author of the books Aviation Law and Drones (2018), International Air Carrier Liability, Safety and Security (2017) and Global Climate Change: Australian Law and Policy (2008), and author of numerous refereed journal articles.

JOHN HOWARD OM AC was the twenty-fifth prime minister of Australia, leading the nation from March 1996 to December 2007. He was the federal member for Bennelong in the House of Representatives (1974–2007) and filled several ministerial and shadow ministerial posts prior to 1996. He was made a companion of the Order of Australia (AC) and a member of the Order of Merit (OM) in 2012. He is the second-longest serving prime minister of Australia.

AYNSLEY KELLOW, a graduate of the University of Otago, is Professor Emeritus of Government at the University of Tasmania. He retired at the end of 2017, having taught previously at Griffith University (as Professor of Social Sciences in the Australian School of Environmental Studies) and Deakin University. He has interests in public policy, especially energy and environmental policy. He is a former president of the Australian Political Science Association and former chair of Research Committee 38 on Politics and Business of the International Political Science Association, and his recent interests centre on the multi-arena, multi-level nature of the international policy process, including the representation of interests within it. He is the editor or author of several books, including two on the OECD (with Peter Carroll). In 2018 he published Negotiating Climate Change: A forensic analysis and Handbook on Research on NGOs (edited with Hannah Murphy-Gregory).

JACQUELINE LAUGHLAND-BOOŸ is a research fellow in the Office of the Deputy Vice Chancellor (Education and Innovation) at Australian Catholic University. She is also an adjunct research fellow in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University. She is a sociologist working on the ARC-funded ‘Social futures and life pathways project’. Her research relates to the personal and professional pathways of young people as they transition from adolescence into adulthood, and the political attitudes and behaviours of young Australians. She has published in a number of academic journals including the Journal of Adolescent Research, Current Sociology and the Australian Journal of Political Science.

WILLIAM MALEY AM is Professor of Diplomacy at the Asia-Pacific College of Diplomacy, where he served as the foundation director from 1 July 2003 to 31 December 2014. He taught for many years in the School of Politics at UNSW Canberra, and has served as a visiting professor at the Russian Diplomatic Academy, a visiting fellow at the Centre for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde, and a visiting research fellow in the Refugee Studies Programme at Oxford University. He is a barrister of the High Court of Australia, vice-president of the Refugee Council of Australia, and a member of the Australian Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP). He is also a member of the International Advisory Board of the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-determination at Princeton University. In 2002, he was appointed a Member of the Order of Australia (AM). In 2009, he was elected a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia (FASSA).

ROBERT (BOB) MORRISON CSC served in the Royal Australian Navy for 39 years, a period which included commanding the amphibious warship, HMAS Manoora, on operational tours to the Solomon Islands and to the North Arabian Gulf following 9/11. He commanded Manoora during the MV Tampa crisis near Christmas Island in 2001, and through the transportation of Afghan and Iraqi asylum seekers to Nauru. He has also commanded the naval air station, HMAS Albatross, and in 2011 deployed on operations to Afghanistan as the ADF representative and Special Assistant to the Commanding General, NATO Training Mission. His final appointment prior to leaving the ADF was with the implementation team for the 2015 First Principles Review reform program for the Department of Defence.

KIM MURRAY worked on the staff of Coalition Senators and Ministers, and with the Minister for Defence in the Howard Government from 1996 until 1998. At the University of Adelaide she gained a BA (Hons) in English (2003), winning a university prize for Australian Literary Studies, and a PhD in Politics (2010) entitled John Howard: A Study in Policy Consistency. At the 2006 Howard Decade Conference in Canberra, she presented a paper, ‘John Howard’s policies: formed over a lifetime, so why were we surprised?’. From 2004 she has tutored in Australian and International Politics and was Guest Lecturer in Comparative Politics in Leadership at the University of Adelaide.

ALBERT PALAZZO is the Director of War Studies in the Australian Army Research Centre. His Ohio State University doctoral thesis was published as Seeking Victory on the Western Front: The British Army & Chemical Warfare in World War I. He has published widely on the history of the Australian Army and the contemporary character of war. His major works include The Australian Army: A history of its organisation, 1901–2001; Moltke to bin Laden: The relevance of doctrine in the contemporary military environment; The Australian Army in Vietnam; The Future of War Debate in Australia; and Forging Australian Land Power: A primer. His current research is on the effect of resource limits and climate change on the future of war and multi-domain operations.

SCOTT PRASSER has held senior policy and advisory roles across a variety of portfolios in state and federal governments in both public service and ministerial offices. He has also served in academic positions across five universities in four states and territories, teaching in government, public policy and business courses. He gained his Bachelor of Arts and Master of Public Administration degrees from the University of Queensland and his doctorate from Griffith University. His recent publications include: Audit Commissions: Reviewing the reviewers (with Kate Jones, 2013) and Royal Commissions and Public Inquiries: Practice and potential (co-edited with Helen Tracey, 2014).

PHILIP RUDDOCK is the second-longest serving federal parliamentarian in Australian history and the first born in Canberra. Elected in 1973 and retiring in 2016, his parliamentary service spanned 42 years. Only Billy Hughes served longer, from 1901 to 1952. The son of a New South Wales Liberal state parliamentarian, Ruddock was raised in The Hills district of Sydney and studied law at the University of Sydney. After securing preselection on his first attempt in 1973, he represented the electorates of Parramatta (1973–77), Dundas (1977–93) and Berowra (1993–2016). He served in several shadow portfolios before he became Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs in 1996. He was appointed Attorney-General in 2003 and remained in this post until the Coalition’s election defeat in 2007. Ruddock has been a Special Envoy for Human Rights and was elected Mayor of Hornsby Shire in 2017 – a post once held by his father.

MICHAEL SMITH AM is from Broken Hill, far western New South Wales. He grew up in Geelong, Victoria. Smith attended the University of Melbourne, graduating in Arts and Law. He holds postgraduate degrees in international law from the University of Sydney and the London School of Economics and Political Science. Smith was admitted as a barrister and solicitor in Victoria in 1976. He then joined the RAN as a legal officer. He has served in a broad range of legal and staff appointments, including as Staff Officer to the Vice Chief of the Defence Force, Chief Staff Officer to the Chief of Navy, Commanding Officer RAN Naval College, and Director General of the Defence Legal Service. It was in this latter role that he was a legal adviser to the government during the MV Tampa matter. Since transferring to the active Navy Reserve in 2005, Smith has served in general bar practice in Tasmania, and been a visiting fellow at the ANU College of Law. His current professional interests include the use of enhanced maritime pursuit capabilities in the Pacific region, and the development of rules-based norms in the Indo-Pacific.

MARK VAILE AO was leader of the National Party of Australia and deputy prime minister of Australia from July 2005 to December 2007. He was the federal member for Lyne (1993–2007). He held several ministerial portfolios throughout his time in parliament, including transport, agriculture, trade and regional services. He was appointed an officer (AO) in the General Division of the Order of Australia in 2012. After leaving the federal parliament in 2008, Vaile has embarked on a career in the private sector and is currently chairman or director of several ASX listed companies.

FIONA WADE has been a media professional for over two decades and an adviser to both Liberal and Labor backbenchers. Her doctorate from the University of Southern Queensland, Feeding the World: Australia, live export and the interplay of influence, considers the effect of reactive policy change on international relations using the live export of Australian cattle to Indonesia as a case study. Formerly senior adviser to the Police Federation of Australia, she is an adjunct lecturer at Charles Sturt University in the Graduate School of Policing and Security, and a visiting fellow at UNSW Canberra, where she is currently researching the marketing of leadership within a political context.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed by contributors are their own opinions and do not necessarily represent the position of the Commonwealth of Australia, the University of New South Wales, the Australian Labor Party, the Liberal Party of Australia, the National Party of Australia or any organisations with which the contributors were or are now associated. The publication of their chapter in this book does not imply any official agreement or formal concurrence with any opinion, criticism, conclusion or recommendation attributed to them.

PREFACE

TOM FRAME

The four Howard governments were very different. To understand their mood and appreciate their mindset, we need to consider each of them as a distinct entity. The first (1996–98) brimmed with energy and ideas but lacked insight and experience, leading to miscalculations and mistakes. The second (1998–2001) was courageous and committed despite ebbing public support, a situation that produced concessions and prompted electorally popular but politically questionable decisions. In sum, the first five years were marked by considerable continuity with the reforms the Hawke– Keating governments (1983–96) had pursued. In the 13 years before returning to office, the Coalition, although in opposition, had substantial and perceptible influence by encouraging and then supporting changes Labor proposed that were largely consistent with its own policy platform. Thanks to Hawke and Keating, the Howard Government was able to continue restructuring government agencies and transforming the public service. Cabinet solidarity worked against the drift to party disunity while the steady succession of ministerial retirements, starting with Deputy Prime Minister Tim Fischer in 1999, afforded the prime minister plenty of opportunity to renew his leadership team. After focusing initially on a largely domestic agenda, the Coalition’s emphasis began to shift towards defence and security with the rise of international terrorism and increasing instability in the Asia-Pacific region stemming, not least, from what became known as the Asian financial crisis.

The Third Howard Government (2001–04) was determined and defiant, claiming a renewed mandate to promote cultural change while staring down sectional opposition. It played towards its strengths and was probably the most experienced of the four. It certainly enjoyed the greatest popularity.

As the third volume in a four-part series, this collection of essays examines the Coalition’s performance between August 2001 and September 2004. Why focus on this particular period? The first volume covered the March 1996 election and the crucial first year in office. The second volume dealt with events from January 1997, as the Workplace Relations Act came into effect, to July 2001 when the Liberals retained the seat of Aston at a by-election. The decision to conclude in mid-2001 meant the tumultuous events of the second half of that year would be addressed in this volume together with the overall performance of the Third Howard Government. The final volume will start with the October 2004 election campaign and end with an assessment of the Coalition’s electoral defeat in November 2007. It will be the only book in the series examining two elections.

This volume looks at 37 months of Australian political life, although several contributors examine activities spanning the Howard years, foregrounding 2001–04 where possible. The Third Howard Government attempted to consolidate its domestic agenda further while dealing with emerging international issues, many a consequence of the attack on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC in September 2001. Easily the most controversial decision the Coalition took during the Howard years was deploying Australian military personnel to Iraq in 2003. Notwithstanding contemporary justifications, the invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq remains the most disastrous military and diplomatic episode for Australia and the Western world over the past half century. This period is not marked by bold policy initiatives or daring responses to dramatic events. There was nothing to rival the Port Arthur massacre and the National Firearms Agreement, the High Court’s Wik decision and the government’s 10-Point Plan, the continuing shrinkage of revenues and the introduction of a consumption tax, the implementation of workplace bargaining and the waterfront dispute or the MV Tampa and ‘children overboard’ controversies. WorkChoices and the Northern Territory Intervention into Indigenous communities came later.

Many major events in the Howard years have already been the subject of close attention, although the source documents have not been available until now. The first tranche of Howard Government papers dating from 1996 and 1997 were released to the public on 1 January 2019. It is in the nature of such documents that they do not disclose what a government did not do or why. Official records do not usually identify problems it should have addressed but ignored or avoided. Nor do they outline whether opportunities were lost or possibilities were squandered. For instance, the Howard Government did not develop a national energy policy. It certainly showed little interest in constitutional change, such as altering the relationship between the Commonwealth and the states on revenue powers, and seemed indifferent to the cause of electoral reform, such as extending parliamentary terms from three years to four. It had obvious misgivings about some aspects of law reform, such as amending the Marriage Act to preclude same-sex marriage, while its relationship with the courts was mixed, especially regarding judicial interpretations of the Migration Act. Notwithstanding its investment in marking the Centenary of Federation and its willingness to hold a referendum on the possibility of Australia becoming a republic during its second term in office, extending participation in Australia’s democracy and enhancing respect for democratic institutions was not among the Coalition’s priorities after 2001.

Internally, neither of the Coalition parties paid much attention to their animating philosophy and there were no serious attempts to devise a continuing vision for the nation’s future. John Howard did not revisit his ‘Headland’ speeches of 1995 five years into Coalition rule, as the government’s sympathies seemed to narrow and its patience with debate evaporated. To mitigate this criticism, its sympathisers would point out that the Third Howard Government needed to pay close attention to international affairs, but it was arguably the least proactive and creative of the four. This is an observation rather than a criticism. I am not implying that the Coalition was idle or indolent between 2002 and 2004, only that this period was marked more by consolidation, unavoidable in the area of taxation reform given the breadth and depth of the changes wrought by the New Tax System and the introduction of a consumption tax, than others.

This assessment is reflected in the chapters that follow. They have been written with the benefit of hindsight and while a number of the contributors personally participated in the events under review, they needed neither to profess nor resist partisan political pressure. Several chapters deal with subjects such as health, the environment and public inquiries, that traverse the entire span of the Howard years. In these instances, the writers have attempted to foreground the period 2001–04 when considering the breadth and depth of the Coalition’s performance. Being critical means offering constructive analysis and not bleak condemnation. The cause of gaining a deeper understanding of the processes and pressures of government is advanced more by elucidations than denunciations. I am especially grateful to Philip Ruddock, Mark Vaile, Simon Crean and John Howard for being willing to canvass their own decisions and to offer some insights into where they might have done better or, at least, acted differently.

The purpose of these volumes is to provide an overview of the Howard Government for students and the interested public and to offer an agenda for scholars conducting research into the period 1996–2007. Many questions have yet to be asked of the Coalition’s time in office; just as many await a reasoned answer. This collection will hopefully provoke a deeper consideration of John Howard and his government among students and scholars, and better inform media commentators and everyday Australians of where and why the Coalition deserves both credit and censure for what it did and did not do over its nearly 12 years in office.

1

SETTING THE SCENE

TOM FRAME

In Australia, the start of the twenty-first century echoed Charles Dickens’ oft-quoted depiction of the last decade of the eighteenth century in his novel A Tale of Two Cities:

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness …

By 2001 and after five years in office, the Coalition had proved itself capable of effective and efficient national government. The country’s finances were in good shape, the country was enjoying protracted prosperity and there was enthusiasm for investment. The Budget was in surplus and the economy was continuing to grow. Government debt was being steadily repaid and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) had been efficiently implemented. Throughout the first half of 2001 the government responded to criticisms of the quarterly Business Activity Statement (BAS) and made changes that met with broad approval. None of the New Tax System’s doomsayers were vindicated. There had been upheavals in the region, principally the implosion of East Timor after an independence referendum, but the Australian people were experiencing prolonged peace and felt safe and secure. The community strongly supported the continuing presence of Australian military personnel in East Timor and the government was managing its other external portfolios well. The government was credited with tackling the need for administrative reform and its relationship with the public service, once fraught, was much improved with the creative centenary celebrations for the Australian Public Service. The Sydney Olympics had been a national triumph and the Federal Government had achieved a compromise deal with the Northern Territory Government on mandatory sentencing. The Coalition had found the advisers it could trust, settled on effective staffing arrangements, and presented a united front to the electorate. There was one challenge, however, to which the Coalition seemed to have few answers.

Despite the Coalition’s best efforts, the Labor Opposition looked far more appealing to the electorate and had been the preferred party for some time in the polls. After the Coalition lost the previously safe seat of Ryan at a by-election held on 17 March 2001, the Howard Government looked headed for near-certain electoral defeat. John Howard and his ministers had done nothing wrong. Yes, the BAS had caused frustration, and anger about the fuel excise took the government by surprise. Kim Beazley and his team simply looked more attractive. But then the popular mood began to change, imperceptibly at first. There was no obvious reason for the tide beginning to turn. The government had not launched any new policies or made any fresh funding commitments. It was largely business as usual. Labor had not stumbled with any new policy positions of its own nor had it failed as an opposition to capitalise on Coalition shortcomings. Yet the government’s standing in the polls was improving for no immediately apparent reason. Nonetheless, it had a long way to go overcoming the Opposition’s substantial lead and the electorate was far from convinced that the Coalition deserved a third term in office.

On 15 July 2001, the ABC launched a new weekend current affairs television program called Insiders to be hosted by Barrie Cassidy, who had been the press secretary to former prime minister Bob Hawke. The first guest was Prime Minister John Howard. The main talking point was the Aston by-election held the previous day, a poll brought on by the sudden death of the sitting Liberal member, Peter Nugent, on 24 April 2001. The Liberal candidate, Chris Pearce, was elected to the House of Representatives and the Liberal Party was greatly relieved. As by-elections traditionally go against the government and big shifts in the primary vote are now common, a swing of only 3.66 per cent against the government was a very commendable result. When asked for his assessment of the outcome, the prime minister remarked with undisguised enthusiasm: ‘I believe that the government is well and truly back in the game. If there were an unstoppable momentum for Labor to win the federal election, they’d have rolled us over in Aston’. Was this a predictable attempt to encourage the party faithful or a reasonable interpretation of the result? Was Aston merely a temporary reprieve from discouraging polling or did it indicate a changing mood?

Notwithstanding conventional wisdom that oppositions do not win elections, it is governments that lose them, the pundits still thought Labor would win the next election comfortably despite the government’s improved standing in the polls. The faint possibility that the Coalition might be re-elected prompted a vigorous response from a coterie of progressive-left critics who could find little positive to say about the Howard Government. In a country that rarely discusses the philosophical restraints or practical limits of national government, the Coalition faced an array of determined detractors with firm opinions about what the Howard Government should have done differently. Whereas Australian politics has historically been dominated by competing visions of how the state might promote the common good and advance the public interest, moral obligations and ethical duties were the new fault-lines in public life, with ‘left’ and ‘right’ no longer necessarily defining contrasting mindsets within the political continuum. Overcoming longstanding concerns about expansive and intrusive government that had no legitimate mandate beyond managing the economy and handling external affairs, Australians expected politicians to promote a holistic vision of Australian society that had previously been the domain of families and neighbourhoods, community organisations and churches. Fulfilling this expectation was complicated because of the nation’s demographic diversity, a natural consequence of a substantial and sustained immigration program.

Programs marking the Centenary of Federation focused on Australian statecraft and elicited bipartisan praise for the quality of Australia’s governance arrangements and the prestige of its supporting institutions. Conversely, assertions about Australian identity became an ideological battleground beyond, and then gradually within, parliamentary politics. Who defined the Australian nation and what unified its people? Were Australians soft-hearted, hard-headed or both, or neither? Were they generous and welcoming or callous and indifferent to those who sought a new and better life in the Great South Land? And what would become of Indigenous people and their unique aspirations as the nation’s first inhabitants? There was no shortage of debate and dispute.

Although John Howard told ABC television reporter Liz Jackson, early in 1996, that he hoped Australians would be ‘comfortable and relaxed’ about the past, the present and the future, he could not prevent the nation from being nervous and agitated in the second half of 2001. Existential angst was everywhere. Crises at home and catastrophes abroad were about to unsettle the nation. Devastating corporate collapses, such as HIH Insurance in March and Ansett Airlines in September, and the unscheduled arrival of the Norwegian cargo ship MV Tampa in waters off Christmas Island in August together with the ‘9/11’ terrorist attacks in Washington and New York in September, left no one indifferent to a rapidly changing world that was putting Australian political processes to the test. Had the Howard Government adequately prepared the nation for what was to come? Did its attempts to be re-elected come at the expense of the national interest? In essence, was this a good government that deserved another term in office?

There were few extended appraisals of the first two Howard governments from either journalists or academics until mid-2001 – more than five years after it was elected.¹ Attention focused on the Coalition’s notable election victories rather than its conduct in office. The first was remarkable because of its magnitude; the second on account of its narrowness. Commentators presumed the Coalition would probably lose the first election of the new millennium and measured retrospectives could be compiled when the Howard years had ended. From 2001, the Howard Government attracted more attention from its opponents than its supporters, who clearly felt no need to produce their own account of the Coalition’s achievements or to defend its performance. My use of the word ‘opponents’ is not intended to be either an assertion or an accusation. It was how a range of authors described themselves and accounted for their motivations in writing. They were self-declared opponents of John Howard and antagonistic to the things for which his government stood. They wrote with a degree of vehemence rarely seen previously and there was no pretence at even-handedness. These were partisan accounts published for overtly polemical purposes. Both the possible re-election of the Howard Government and the campaigning that led to its victory provoked renewed attention.

In October 2001 and with election campaigning underway for the poll scheduled on 10 November 2001, Guy Rundle, the co-editor of Arena magazine, published ‘The Opportunist: John Howard and the triumph of reaction’ in Black Inc.’s Quarterly Essay series. The book was promoted as a ‘plea for right-thinking people of every political persuasion to resist the call to prejudice and reaction’. It went beyond reporting or even analysis; it was commentary of an expressly political character.

The Opportunist portrays Howard not as the ‘ordinary man’ but as a ‘small man’ who could not compete with the real ‘common Aussie’, Bob Hawke. Rundle contends that anyone could have won the 1996 election against a ‘burnt-out and distracted’ Paul Keating. Over the ensuing years Howard merely continued his predecessor’s macro-economic program while weakening the influence of moderates in his own party and dividing the nation. After five years in power and few achievements he could claim as his own, Rundle damned Howard for bringing ‘his party to the point where only the bullying of a boatload of stateless people has allowed him the chance to remain in power’.² This claim was factually questionable and ignored the flow of public opinion, which looked to the government for strong action. Rundle was not to be distracted. He thought Howard was willing to ‘summon up the worst side of the Australian spirit, forcing your more scrupulous opponents into a position where sooner or later they cannot bear to match you blow-for-blow, and are revealed to the public as the anti-patriotic time-servers they were all along’.³ According to Rundle, Howard did not enjoy the loyalty or the affection of his colleagues – he was just a convenient figure for them to have around.⁴ Howard departed from the ideological foundations of his party when it suited and damaged the political institutions for which he claimed to have respect. The twenty-fifth prime minister was unlike his Australian Liberal predecessors, he was ‘far more Nixonian – more distanced, as a politician, from his own personal political and moral beliefs – than either his opponents or supporters would like to imagine’. The prospect of more John Howard and another Coalition government filled Rundle with despair because it would be achieved on the basis of irrational fears and blind prejudice of the kind he thought had long passed into memory. Perhaps worse, ‘the Howard team had provided government that had pleased almost no one, except the CEOs of large businesses’. And yet, the polls said that more people were prepared to vote for Howard and the