The Final Path of Flight Mh370: Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithms That Disprove Some Current Theories and Suggest New Answers

By Maged Marghany Ph.D.

Multiobjective Genetic Algorithms for detecting the Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 delivers the critical tool needed to understand its vanishing scenario in the southern Indian Ocean. Filling the gap between the conspiracy theories of MH370 vanishing and remote sensing detected debris, this reference is packed with technical details associated with the critical questions of has not MH370 vanished in the southern Indian Ocean, and where is last destination of MH370? Rounding out with practical simulation trajectory movements of MH370 debris using the ocean dynamic features, Multiobjective Genetic Algorithms bring an effective evident of the last destination of MH370.
Key Features
• Bridge between the conspiracy theories of missing MH370 and remote sensing technology.
• Understanding a new approach of debris automatic detection.
• Advance knowledge on image processing based on multiobjective genetic algorithms.
• Disprove some current theories of MH370 missing and suggest new answers

• Language: English
• Publisher: iUniverse
• Release date: Oct 31, 2019
• ISBN: 9781532084461

Maged Marghany Ph.D.

Maged Marghany is currently a Professor of remote sensing in Faculty Geospatial and Real Estate, Geomatika University College (GUC), Malaysia. He is author of “Advanced Remote Sensing Technology for Tsunami Modelling and Forecasting” which is published by Routledge Taylor and Francis Group,CRC. His research specializes in microwave remote sensing and remote sensing for mineralogy detection and mapping. Previously, he worked as a Deputy Director in Research and Development at the Institute of Geospatial Science and Technology and the Department of Remote Sensing, both at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. Maged has earned many degrees including a post-doctoral in radar remote sensing from the International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences, a PhD in environmental remote sensing from the Universiti Putra Malaysia, a Master of Science in physical oceanography from the University Pertanian Malaysia, general and special diplom of Education and a Bachelor of Science in physical oceanography from the University of Alexandria in Egypt. Maged has published well over 250 papers in international conferences and journals and is active in International Geoinformatic, and the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ISPRS).

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Copyright © 2019 Maged Marghany, Ph.D.

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Author Credits: Dr. Maged Mahmoud Marghany

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iUniverse rev. date:  10/30/2019

CONTENTS

Dedication

Preface

Chapter 1   Speculations behind the Vanishing of Flight MH370

1.1   Updated Presumptions

1.2   What happened on March 8th, 2014?

1.3   The search and rescue: What happened next?

1.4   When was the debris from the plane discovered?

1.5   What has MH370 debris revealed?

1.6   What are the theories behind the missing of MH370?

1.6.1   Shoot-down theory

1.6.2   Cyber Attacks

1.6.3   Cracking of the Fuselage Skin Lower SATCOM Antenna

1.6.4   MH370 Behind Terrain

1.6.5   Pilot Suicide

1.6.6   Diego Garcia Conspiracy

1.7   What Has the Final Report Said?

1.8   Search Area

1.8.1   Flight Routes

1.8.2   Frequency Offset

1.8.3   How did the search area identified?

1.8.4   End-of-flight scenarios

1.9   Physical Oceanography and the missing MH370

Chapter 2   Fundamentals of Genetic, Multiobjective Algorithms and Pareto Optimization

2.1   What Is A Genetic Algorithm?

2.2   How Does GA work?

2.3   Genetic Algorithm Principles

2.3.1   Fitness Proportional Selection

2.3.2   Crossover

2.3.3   Mutation

2.3.3.1   Mutation Interference

2.4   Typical Steps of Genetic Algorithm

2.4.1   How is an individual denoted?

2.4.2   How is an individual’s fitness computed?

2.4.3   How are individuals nominated for breeding?

2.4.4   How are individuals crossed-over?

2.4.5   How are individuals mutated?

2.5   What is the Difference between Genetic and Evolutionary Algorithms?

2.6   Genetic Programming

2.6.1   Operators of genetic programming

2.6.1.1   Crossover Operator

2.6.1.2   Mutation Operator

2.7   Multi-objective Genetic Programming

2.7.1   Decision Variable and Objective Space

2.7.2   Feasible and Infeasible Solutions

2.7.3   Ideal Objective Vector

2.7.4   Domination

2.7.5   Pareto- optimal Set (Non-dominated Set) and Pareto Pront

Chapter 3   Multiobjective Algorithm of MH370 Convinced Flying Route

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Inmarsat 3-F1 Satellite Data

3.2.1   Inmarsat Satellite Frequencies

3.2.2   Inmarsat-4 F3

3.2.3   Polarization

3.2.4   Satellite Transmit Capability

3.2.5   Satellite Receive Capabilities

3.2.6   Communications Payload

3.3   How Did Inmarsat 3-F1 Detected the Path of MH370?

3.4   Multi-objective Optimisation

3.5 Optimal MH370 Paths Exploring

3.6   Probability of Flaperon and Weather Effects of the MH370 Path Deviation

3.7   Optional Filtering of Routes

3.8   Mutation Operator

3.9   What is the Precise Route of MH370?

Chapter 4   Tracking MH370 Debris using Optical Remote Sensing Satellite Data

4.1   Theoretical of Target Detection in Optical Sensors

4.1.1   Specific Definition of MH370 Remote Sensing

4.1.2   Spectral Signature of Remote Sensing Data

4.2   Electromagnetic Spectral Regions For MH370 Debris

4.3   Optical Satellite Remote Sensing

4.4   Gaofen-1Satellite

4.4.1   PMC (PAN and Multispectral Camera)

4.4.2   Wide Field Imager (WFI)

4.4.3   GF-1 Data for Possible MH370 Debris

4.5   Digital Global for Tracking MH370 Debris

4.5.1   WorldView-2 Satellite

4.5.2   Suspected MH370 Debris by Worldview-2

4.6   Thaichote Satellite

4.6.1   Possible Debris in Thaichote Satellite

4.7   Pleiades imagery

4.7.1   Possible MH370 Bebris in Pleiades 1A Satellite

4.8   Google Earth for Possible Debris Data

Chapter 5   Multiobjective Genetic Algorithms for Automatic Detection of MH370 Debris using Satellite Optical Images

5.1   MH370 Debris Located In Southern Indian Ocean

5.2   Briefing of Satellite Images Tracked Debris

5.3   Expected MH370 Debris

5.4   Spectral Signature

5.5   Image Pre-processing

5.5.1   Atmospheric Correction

5.5.2   Radiometric Calibration

5.5.3   Dark Subtraction

5.5.4   Internal Average Reflectance Calibration

5.5.5   Layer Stacking

5.5.6   Georeferencing

5.5.7   Images Enhancement

5.5.8   Region of Interest (ROI)

5.6   Genetic Algorithm

5.6.1   Data Organisation

5.6.2.   Population Initialisation

5.6.3   The Fitness Function

5.6.4   The Selection Step

5.6.5   The reproduction step

5.6.6   Morphological operations

5.7.   Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm NSGA-II

5.7.1   Crowding Distance

5.7.2   Recombination and Selection

5.8   Debris Segmentations From Satellite Data

5.8.1   Debris Investigations From Panchromatic Data Using MOEA

5.8.2   Debris Investigations Using NSGA-II From Panchromatic Data

5.8.3   Debris Investigations in Multispectral Data Using NGSA-II

Chapter 6   Modeling Wave Pattern Impacts on MH370 Flaperon using Altimeter Interferometry

6.1   Synthetic Aperture Radar Altimeter Interferometry

6.2   Altimeter Interferometry Technique

6.3   Precision Procedures Of InSAR Altimeter Scheme

6.4   Echo-Tracking Algorithm

6.5   Delay-Doppler Altimeter

6.6   Data Acquisitions

6.7   Multiobjective Algorithm For Modelling Significant Wave Height On Movement Of MH370 Debris

6.8   Wave Pattern Impacts On Flaperon

6.9   How Can Wave Power Mobolize MH370 Flaperon?

6.10   Why Has Not Flaperon Reached to Réunion Island?

Chapter 7   Rossby Wave Pattern Impacts on MH370 Debris Based on Pareto Optimization

7.1   What is a Rossby Wave?

7.2   Mathematical Description Of Rossby Waves

7.3   Convergence and Divergence Due to Rossby Waves

7.4   Modelling Rossby Wave Patterns From Satellite Altimeter

7.4.1   Estimation Sea Surface Height UsingCollinear Analysis

7.4.2   Fast Fourier Transform For Rossby Wave Pattern

7.5   Altimeter Data Used To Model Rossby Wave

7.6   Simulation Of Rossby Wave Pattern By Multiobjective Algorithm

7.7   Population of Solutions

7.8   Fitness

7.9   Cross-over and Mutation

7.10   Pareto Dominance

7.11   How Did Rossby Wave Mobilized the MH370 Debris?

Chapter 8   Multiobjective Algorithm for Trajectory Movement of MH370 Debris

8.1   Altimeter Theory For Measuring Sea Surface Current

8.2   Geoid Error

8.2.1   Geoid and Ellipsoidal Concepts

8.2.2   Geoid Error Impacts

8.3   Modelling Sea Surface Current Using JASON-2 Altimeter

8.3.1   Volterra-Lax-Wendroff Algorithm

8.3.2   Volterra Model for Geostrophic Current Equation Modification

8.3.3   Lax-Wendroff Scheme

8.3.4   Boundary Conditions

8.4   Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOE)

8.5   Pareto Front

8.6   Ocean Circulation Impacts On MH370 Debris

8.7   Why Has Not the Flaperon Drifted Towards Réunion Island?

Chapter 9   Why is it Impossible for MH370 to Vanish in Southern Indian Ocean?

9.1   Genetic Algorithm Encoding for MH370 Vanishing

9.2   Pareto Optimal Solution For MH370 Vanishing

9.3   Why Is It Impossible for MH370 Flaperon to Drift Towards Réunion Island?

9.4   Why Has Not MH370 Vanished In Southern Indian Ocean?

9.5   Significant of Search Area of MH370

9.6   Where is MH370?

9.7   Why the Flight Found in Cambodian Jungles is not MH370?

About Contributor

DEDICATION

Dedicated to my mother Farida, Captain Azlan Zainal Abidin and, Nikola Tesla and Richard Feynman who taught me that the real professor survives even after his death, whereas the fake professor does not exist after his death.

PREFACE

Since March 8th, 2014 there is no one can logically address the question of where is the Flight MH370? Moreover, has not MH370 finished in the southern Indian Ocean? These questions must be answered with the full consideration of the Indian ocean dynamics. The surprising issue is the Malaysian oceanography researchers and professors who published numerous reports at highest-indexed journals have been unable to provide any conclusion regarding how MH370 debris drifted to Réunion Island. In this sense, the marine research university Terengganu Malaysia (UMT) as the pioneer of oceanography studies has been unable to develop a trajectory movement model for tracking MH370 debris in the southern Indian Ocean. Moreover, even the Malaysian remote sensing senior professors who are scattered over many public universities never also convey any piece of a clue for tracking the debris of MH370 in satellite data. In fact, the fundamental research studies published in well-known indexed journals are unable to reveal the mystery of vanishing of MH370. In this regard, the main crisis is that professors used to pay money for some researchers from non-developed countries to write papers to be published in impact factor journals without understanding what the topic is all about. This sort of academic practice leads to impoverish knowledge in oceanography and remote sensing, which are the keystones to solve the mystery of MH370. As a result, Malaysian academic professors have been unable to defy the conspiracy of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s committed suicide.

In this view, this book provides the logical explanations: based on the existences of flaperon and the debris of MH370 under the impact of the Indian Ocean dynamic system. According to this viewpoint, the gap between ocean dynamic forces, MH370 debris, and remote sensing technology can be bridged. This approach is the keystone to solve the mystery of MH370. To this end, the book involves the evolutionary algorithms to provide a full understanding of the finishing mechanism of MH370. In fact, evolutionary algorithms provide answers to questions about how long did MH370 fly, where did MH370 go, and how did MH370 finish?

In this regard, the first chapter reviews most conspiracy theories behind the disappearance of MH370. The second chapter explains in details all about the evolutionary algorithms as based on genetic and multiobjective algorithms. The multiobjective algorithm is used to determine the route of MH370 as explained in chapter 3. Therefore, chapter four investigates the debris of MH370 in optical satellite images. The validation of the detected debris is provided in chapter five using multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. Moreover, ocean dynamic force impacts on MH370 debris, for instance, ocean wave pattern, Rossby waves, and ocean surface current are also examined in chapters six, seven and eight, respectively.

More advanced work on the Indian Ocean wave dynamics is presented in chapter six. This work is done by using altimeter satellite data. This book also presented a new technique, which is based on the altimeter interferometry to monitor the impact of the significant wave height fluctuations on the MH370 debris and flaperon. Unlike other studies, the book does not only concern the surface trajectory model but involves other dynamic ocean components such as Rossby wave, eddies, velocity potential, and vorticity. These were taken into account to answer the critical question of How did flaperon wash up on Réunion Island?

The book also introduces the new technique to model the trajectory drift of the MH370 debris based on the amalgamation between Volterra-Lax-Wendroff algorithm and multiobjective algorithm. Therefore, chapter nine answers the critical question of why has not MH370 crash in the southern Indian Ocean? Lastly, this book answers the question of where is the MH370? In this regard, Pareto optimal solution is used to provide the logic answer of what are the benefits behind the intensive sea operations for searching MH370 approximately 1500 km of Perth, Australia?

Prof. Dr. Maged Marghany,

Professor of Microwave Remote Sensing, and

Director of Institute of Geospatial Applications,

Geomatika University College,

54200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

119355.png    CHAPTER 1    11935.png

Speculations behind the Vanishing of Flight MH370

The speculations behind the vanishing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 are difficult to be apprehended since some of these theories are not logically based. For instance, those concerning aliens and the Bermuda Triangle are far out from reality. The conspiracies that are presented by international media are the reasoning approach of such brainwash. Alas, it appears as the fake information just to satisfy the victim’s families of MH370. Consequently, Malaysian scientists are unable to convey any logic theory or information regarding the mystery end of MH370. Although there are many physical oceanography experts and remote sensing professors who are scattered in many Malaysian and Australian universities, no one able to convey any piece of a clue for tracking the debris of MH370 in satellite data and in the Indian Ocean. Indeed, ocean dynamic and remote sensing are the keystones for solving the mystery end of MH370. In this regard, modern physics and innovative data analysis are necessary to comprehend the tragedy of MH370. There was continuous research, both hypothetically and experimentally by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), to comprehend precisely the grounds for the airplane’s disappearance. In this sense, the mystery of MH370 still remains unresolved. This chapter reviews the novel findings and speculations behind the vanishing mechanism of MH370.

1.1   Updated Presumptions

In the five years since the disappearance of Flight 370, numerous new theories approximating the fate of the missing aircraft, have been acquiring the internet by storm. On March 8th, 2014, the Boeing 777 aircraft, which had 239 people on board, vanished on the route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur above the Indian Ocean. Yet, there is no one can logically address the question of where is the Flight MH370? Moreover, has not MH370 finished in the southern Indian Ocean? The Daily Star [1] reported that Peter McMahon, an Australian mechanical engineer made the shocking claims that the missing flight has been tracked down on Google Earth riddled with bullet holes, and suggested a location near Round Island, north of Mauritius (Figure 1.1).

FIGURE%201.1.jpg

Figure 1.1. The claim that MH370 crashed north of Mauritius.

Conversely, the disappearance of Flight 370 remains mysterious. In this view, MH370 investigators argued that the images supposedly belonging to the missing flight (Figure 1.2) were acquired years earlier, previous to the flight disappeared. They explained that those images (Figure 1.2) were captured on November 6, 2009, more than four years earlier than the flight vanished.

(a)   

FIGURE%201.2a.jpg

(b)   

FIGURE%201.2b.jpg

Figure 1.2. The claim images of missing flight (a) aircraft fuselage and (b) part of the front cabin, in the south of Rodrigues Island.

This clarification can be true as long as the experts had never found any MH370 flew corpses as passengers. In this concern, there are numerous inquiries are raised up and necessitate scientific answers to reveal the mystery of MH370 vanishing. Did the suspected objects on satellite images belong to the missing flight? The first ‘location’ is near the round island can be found on an image was dated on June 11, 2009, specifically, five years prior to the flight disappeared. In addition, this site is located between 19°49'42.77S and 57°48'16.79E, which is approximately 1 mile northeast of Round Island. Consequently, these random patterns are shown in both images were dated on June 11, 2009, and October 27, 2014, respectively present the ocean wave propagations. Moreover, the deepwater far north coastal zone of Mauritius never allows the airplane fuselage to remain longer on the water surface. In other words, the flight MH370 must sink deeper. The collapsing of the recent conclusions to interpret the mystery of MH370 vanishing will raise the following critical questions.

1.2   What happened on March 8th, 2014?

Despite the superior space, marine, and communication technologies, the mystery of the missing flight cannot be clarified. In spite of twelve countries that joined in for the search and rescue efforts of the missing flight, it is extremely complicated to investigate its mystery vanishing from the Malaysian secondary ground radar, northwest of Penang Island, Malaysia (Figure 1.3). The aircraft was shown flying at a cruise altitude of 350 m and was traveling at an actual airspeed of 872.26 km/h. The later analysis estimated that flight MH370 had 41,500 kg (91,491.84 lb) of fuel when it disappeared from secondary radar.

FIGURE%201.3.jpg

Figure 1.3. Location of the disappearance of MH370 on the radar screen.

1.3   The search and rescue: What happened next?

Consequently, the Malaysian navy radar confirmed that MH370 traveled over the Malacca Straits, while the blue circle (Figure 1.4) shows the disappearance of MH370 from the radar screen, near Penang Island (Figure 1.4).

FIGURE%201.4.jpg

Figure 1.4. Last appearance of MH370 on the radar screen.

The Malaysian navy radar confirmed that the airplane changed rapidly its path to Beijing. It was suggested that the airplane continued flying for more 6 hours till lost contact with air control. In this view, the fuel must runoff for those 6 hours concerns. In fact, at 01:06 MYT, the total fuel remaining was about 43,800 kg (96,600 lb) [2]. In this concern, MH370 could not fly to the southern Indian Ocean as required adequate fuel more than 43,800 kg. In other words, the airplane was geared up with sufficient fuel for 6 hours, beginning in 1642. It is expected that there would be extra fuel for an emergency. In this regard, MH370 was able to fly until 0019 (approximately 7.5 hours). Therefore, the aircraft must have been flying economically – at a speed that minimized fuel consumption at a low altitude.

1.4   When was the debris from the plane discovered?

A week after the disappearance of flight MH370, satellite images of promising debris suggested that airplane crashed in the Indian Ocean, south-west of Australia. Nevertheless, the exploration of the black box of MH370 in the confirmed search area is not considered valid as long as the airplane was not discovered. This can be proved that the search area is carried in the wrong location. Consequently, on July 29, 2015, more than a year after the disappearance airplane, debris was discovered by volunteers cleaning a beach in St Andre, Reunion. As a result, investigators verified the debris came from the missing flight. It did not, conversely, assist to trace the airplane as it had flowed into the Indian Ocean. Later, on October 7, 2017, it was declared that two wing flaps located in Mauritius did belong to MH370. Finally, in August 2017, Australia broadcasted satellite imagery reported that 12 artificial MH370 debris, which found floating near the search area. The satellite images were detained by a French military satellite two weeks after the disappearance of Flight MH370, nevertheless never release to the public. In this regard, why the French authority did not share this information with the Australian?

1.5   What has MH370 debris revealed?

The Australian transport safety Bureau reported that the aircraft was not ditched accurately in the Southern Indian Ocean after the flaperon has split away from MH370. If the pilot turned into planning, a managed ditching of the aircraft, the wing flaps might have been configured for landing. However, MH370 seemed to be out of control during its flying. In this debate, if someone had been controlled the flight, it could have hovered a great distance than believed. In this concern, the MH370 investigators could survey the wrong search area. In fact, a deep-sea sonar