Deep Space Deployments: A Durable U.S. Triad's Final Frontier?

By Joe Buff MS FSA and Rick Severinghaus

What if some hypothetical new, all-seeing sub hunting breakthrough rendered today's super-stealthy nuclear missile submarines easy to locate and attack? How might America then regain the guaranteed second-strike deterrence needed to sustain global strategic stability against nuclear-armed adversary superpowers? The author suggests looking to the outer solar system, while thinking about another pressing defense need affecting Humanity: a reliable method for deflecting comets and asteroids that are on a collision course with Planet Earth, especially those known to be "flying rubble piles," or which move in weakly bound groups, or even sometimes have their own moons or rings.

• Language: English
• Publisher: BookBaby
• Release date: Jun 11, 2022
• ISBN: 9781736391037

Book preview

DEEP-SPACE DEPLOYMENTS: A DURABLE U.S. TRIAD’S FINAL FRONTIER?

ADVANCE PRAISE FROM A LEADING NUCLEAR STRATEGY EXPERT:

Joe Buff has combined an accessible writing style with impressive logical rigor, to produce an imaginative and forward-looking overview of the nexus between three compelling threats to America’s security: asteroid and comet impacts with Earth, possible basing of nukes in space by our adversaries, and hypothetical loss of stealth for our SSBNs. This insightful new monograph deserves widespread attention throughout the national defense communities in the U.S. and our overseas allies.

— MR. PETER HUESSY, Founder and President of GeoStrategic Analysis, Senior Defense Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Bonn Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council

AND THIS FROM AN UPCOMING LETTER TO THE EDITOR SENT TO THE U.S. SUBMARINE VETERANS, INC.’S AMERICAN SUBMARINER:

If you have not read any of [Joe Buff’s nuclear deterrence works], then I recommend that you do. And while you are at it, please give your Congressman and your Senators a call and strongly suggest to them that they read them as well. How much do they know and are they willing to learn more?

— T. MICHAEL BIRCUMSHAW, Former USSVI National Commander (2010–2014) and Former Editor of American Submariner (2005–2010 and 2018–2020)

JOE BUFF’S NON-FICTION/REFERENCE BOOK, FROM JOE BUFF INC. (2021), ON 21ST CENTURY NUCLEAR DETERRENCE—VOLUME I, GOT A GREAT REVIEW FROM THE MILITARY WRITERS SOCIETY OF AMERICA (MWSA):

"A thoroughly dog-eared copy of Joe Buff’s ON 21ST CENTURY NUCLEAR DETERRENCE deserves a spot on the bookshelves of policy advisors and strategic thinkers. Buff tackles and confronts the complex and highly nuanced planning that goes into maintaining an effective nuclear deterrence strategy using the sea-air-land triad. Buff writes with a balanced approach that will be appreciated by readers of varying interest and experience in the subject, offering useful anecdotes, historical insights, and subtle wit throughout his book. He faces a touchy subject that many are unwilling or reluctant to address: that among the myriad issues facing the world in the first quarter of the 21st century, there are still a tremendous number of nuclear weapons out there, and while rational powers can surely agree that their use would have catastrophic consequences, we must indeed contend with the fact that they exist…and might end up in the wrong hands.

Buff writes with enthusiasm and earnestness, and his professional role as an actuarial comes out frequently in the mathematical calculations he provides to support his views. He also has a frank and honest approach to writing about a subject that gets too little attention in superpower struggles today in jargon-free prose. I was particularly drawn to the subject of nuclear weapons getting into the hands of terrorists and rogue powers which may not have a rational, game-theory approach to their decision making. It’s a chilling scenario to ponder, and Buff’s book should be a key reference for both US and global policy makers on this important topic.

— Frank Biggio for the MWSA, June 2021

VOLUME I OF BUFF’S NON-FICTION/REFERENCE SERIES ALSO GOT THIS STRONG ENDORSEMENT FROM A NOTED ARMS-CONTROL EXPERT:

Most excellent! In this engaging, readable, and up-to-date exploration of nuclear deterrence, risk-management actuary Joe Buff brings unconventional yet compelling insights to this daunting and complex topic, by drawing from his different set of professional touchstones than most academic (or for that matter practitioner) nuclear policy experts. … In a word, bravo!

— David A. Cooper, PhD, The James V. Forrestal Professor of National Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War College, November 2021

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! … VOLUME II IS COMING IN LATE 2023

EXCERPTS FROM THE FOREWORD BY MR. PETER HUESSY TO JOE BUFF’S ON 21ST CENTURY NUCLEAR DETERRENCE MULTI-VOLUME SERIES:

"Nuclear deterrence and nuclear modernization–the strategy of having the forces needed to stop bad guys from using nuclear weapons against the U.S., and the policy to keep such forces up to snuff–were central to the mission of the United States and its allies for the nearly half century of the Cold War and now the three decades of what is termed an era of great power competition. Joe Buff is a prolific writer on these subjects. His analysis is a welcome and much needed addition to the body of commentary on nuclear matters, including material produced by professional academics, the entertainment community, and U.S. government officials, both military and civilian. Like many political subjects, there is often a narrative that gets established from which conventional wisdom does not vary. In the nuclear business this involves the constant repetition that America’s nuclear deterrent policy is outdated and dangerous; that its modernization efforts are vastly too expensive; and that the current program of record being proposed annually by the past two administrations and considered by Congress is causing an arms race and unnecessary tensions with our adversaries. …

"Joe Buff’s book[s are] a welcome antidote to these false narratives. Though lengthy, Buff takes the time to unwind the false narratives and then spends the time laying out the correct facts of the case. …

"As Buff points out, the U.S. stopped building nuclear missiles, planes, and [deterrence] submarines in the 1990s, and it will be almost forty years from that time to the point where the U.S. will start putting into the field our first new and replacement bomber (2029), submarine (2032), or land-based missile (2030). We are doing so, as Buff makes clear, because our Ohio-class submarine hulls at 42 years old cannot continue to be at sea; our land-based Minuteman III missiles are now 50 years old, requiring costly maintenance, and will not meet future mission requirements; while all our current bombers will not in the future be able to penetrate enemy airspace and overcome sophisticated air defenses …

"Buff does a highly credible job explaining the limits of arms control. …

Joe Buff deals with all of these issues in great detail. His material is a must read, as it is critically important that we undo the false narratives that dominate our nuclear discourse and stick to, as the famous TV show said, ‘Just the facts, ma’am.’

MR. PETER HUESSY is a Senior Defense Fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Bonn Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council, formerly was Director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and is President and Founder (1981) of defense consulting firm GeoStrategic Analysis of Potomac, Maryland. He is also an Instructor at the United States Naval Academy, on U.S. Nuclear Deterrent Policy and Strategy. Over the years, Mr. Huessy has hosted some fifteen-hundred seminars on Capitol Hill, about important aspects of national defense and strategic deterrence. In 2009 he was awarded a Meritorious Achievement Award by the National Defense Industrial Association.

ALSO BY JOE BUFF, his MILITARY WRITERS SOCIETY OF AMERICA’s ADMIRAL NIMITZ OUTSTANDING NAVAL FICTION PRIZE AWARD WINNING, and MILITARY BOOK CLUB BEST-SELLING technothrillers of future tactical nuclear war at sea!

The CAPTAIN JEFFREY FULLER / USS CHALLENGER submarine novel series:

Deep Sound Channel

Thunder in the Deep

Crush Depth

Tidal Rip

Straits of Power Seas of Crisis

ALL ARE AVAILABLE AS E-BOOKS, AT BETTER ON-LINE BOOKSELLERS WORLDWIDE

* * *

PRAISE FOR THE NOVELS OF JOE BUFF FROM OTHER BESTSELLING AUTHORS:

A superb high-water mark in naval fiction!

—Michael DiMercurio

Superbly researched and well-written, Joe Buff’s novels are the creme de la creme of submarine thrillers.

—Stephen Coonts

Joe Buff takes the reader through a labyrinth of action and high adventure. A rare thriller, highly entertaining.

—Clive Cussler

If you want a hair-raising trip to the bottom of the ocean, Joe Buff’s the guy to take you there.

—Patrick Robinson

MORE PRAISE FOR ON 21ST CENTURY NUCLEAR DETERRENCE—VOLUME I

Joe Buff explains the complexities of nuclear deterrent strategy, past, present, and future, in a manner easily understandable by the interested lay person. He brings a refreshingly new, pragmatic viewpoint to an area of discussion that has long been delegated to the esoteric world of think tanks and great-nation statecraft. This work is worth reading, giving emphasis to the increased importance of the delicate interplay of nuclear deterrence in a multi-polar 21st century.

— George Wallace, Commander, USN (Ret.), former CO of the LA-class USS HOUSTON, & co-author with Don Keith of SILENT RUNNING and 6 other submarine novels including FIRING POINT, made into the major motion picture HUNTER-KILLER

Conclusions drawn from outdated assumptions shouldn’t be accepted as facts. America’s decades-old Cold War assumptions about nuclear deterrence, not frequently reviewed, eventually hardened into dogma whose conclusions became somewhat questionable. Joe Buff has used a penetrating intellect and done some superb research to expose such outdated assumptions and then suggest credible, insightful updates to national nuclear posture and policy. Not everyone will agree with all Buff’s new set of compelling recommendations—but to be credible themselves, dissenters will need to do some serious thinking and rethinking of their own.

— James Patton, Jr., Captain, USN (Ret.), former CO of the Sturgeon-class USS PARGO, and frequent contributor to the US Naval Institute PROCEEDINGS and the Naval Submarine League’s THE SUBMARINE REVIEW. He was the technical consultant to the making of Tom Clancy’s THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER into a major motion picture.

THE SUBMARINE REVIEW HAD THIS TO SAY ABOUT JOE BUFF’S WRITINGS, WINNERS OF 5 LITERARY AWARDS FROM THE NAVAL SUBMARINE LEAGUE:

Joe Buff gets it. He understands the unique culture and values of the Submarine Force and the nuances of what it means to be a submariner…. Buff underscores the importance and effectiveness of today’s U.S. Submarine Force in any possible global conflict, and highlights the technical excellence, outstanding training, bravery, and teamwork of the crews that man these tremendous ships…. Buff’s crisp comprehension of sonar science, of global oceanography, meteorology, and geography, and of 20th century history plus 21st century maritime theory provides an additional vivid background to the tapestry of his [novels and his] prolific non-fiction undersea warfare analysis and commentary.

— ROB WEBER, Commander, USN, in the quarterly professional journal THE SUBMARINE REVIEW, April 2007

DEEP-SPACE DEPLOYMENTS:

A DURABLE U.S. TRIAD’S FINAL FRONTIER?

Title

Copyright © 2022 by Joe Buff

All rights reserved no part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without permission in writing from the copyright owner, except by a reviewer, who may quote brief passages in a review. Scanning, uploading and electronic distribution of this book or the facilitation of such without permission of the copyright owner is prohibited. Please purchase only authorized electronic editions, and do not participate in or encourage electronic piracy of copyrighted materials. Your support of the rights of the author, and other creative artists, is appreciated. Any member of educational institutions wishing to photocopy part of this work for classroom use, or anthology, should send inquiries to the publisher at the address set forth below.

ISBN: 978-1-7363910-3-7

Published by Joe Buff, Inc.

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Cover art is a NASA photograph in the public domain.

Cover and Interior page design and layout

by Stephen Tiano, Book Designer of Riverhead, NY

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Printed in the United States of America

Dedicated to sustaining long-term success of America’s strong, diversified nuclear deterrence Triad as a reliable global preventive of nuclear blackmail, nuclear terrorism, and nuclear war

CONTENTS

FOREWORDBY RICK SEVERINGHAUS

Executive Summary: Never Say Nay to Nuclear Deterrence’s Long-Term Viability

Monograph Purpose; A False Allegation; Bad Implications of Unilateral U.S. Denuclearization

Five Foreseeable (and Other Unforeseen) Future Worst-Case