Tipping Point

By Edward Correia

When the governor of New Jersey, Melissa Harding, appears to win a close race for the White House, the incumbent president, desperate to hold on to power, tries every tactic to stay in office. As inauguration day comes closer, both sides battle it out in the courts. The incumbent president has ordered troops to the border of Iran, risking a bloody and pointless conflict. The death of a supreme court justice means the balance of the court is also at stake. With democracy itself at a tipping point, the country’s future depends on people willing to risk their careers to uphold the rule of law.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Austin Macauley Publishers
• Release date: May 26, 2023
• ISBN: 9798886931747

Edward Correia

Edward Correia is a Washington, D.C. attorney and an adjunct professor at American University’s Washington College of Law. He served as special counsel to President Clinton for civil rights and chief counsel of the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee.

Book preview

1

6:15 AM

November 5, Election Day

Home of Melissa Harding

Princeton, New Jersey

Former governor of New Jersey and presidential candidate Melissa Harding awoke in her home for only the third time in the last three weeks. At first, she couldn’t recall where she was. The room was still dark, although she could make out an orange band at the bottom of a bedroom window. Could there be light this early? And what time was it anyway? The neon numbers of the clock on her nightstand said 6:15. There shouldn’t be any light at 6:15, should there? Ah, yes. daylight savings time was over. The day stretches out at the beginning, not at the end.

For the last several months, she had crisscrossed the country with events starting early in the morning and ending at midnight in a different state. Compared to that insanity, this would be a simple day. A tense day, yes, but a simple one.

Her staff would be downstairs in the dining room in 30 minutes. She didn’t need to unlock the door. One of the campaign workers was living in the first-floor bedroom, just for times like this. Get coffee on. Get some bagels if there are none, maybe some cream cheese and jam, too. Let everybody in to spread their papers out on the dining table without making too much noise.

Would this be the greatest day of her life? Only a few dozen people have been president. Not a lot really. They could all fit downstairs if they could miraculously come back to life for just an hour or so. What would that be like?

Harding had seen that goofy series of paintings with past presidents gathered around a poker table – a grinning LBJ and FDR playing cards, Andrew Jackson and JFK standing in their shirt sleeves, and so on. There must be several variations of them so that every president was in at least one. Imagining such a gathering brought a certain pleasure. What would it be like to have all those presidents in one room? That must be why someone painted those things. He – was it a he? – must have sensed that people would be fascinated and, silly as it was, buy copies and put them up in their rec rooms.

Would this be the greatest day of her life, if it all worked out? How does one measure such things? The day I married James, the birth of the girls, the day I was elected governor. She glanced at the curve in the blankets to her right and listened for a moment to James breathe. What a wonderful man. How lucky I am. And he has put up with all the shit of this campaign without complaining too much, without ever losing his temper with the campaign staff, who could be an obnoxious, arrogant bunch of know-it-alls. He has kept it together so well and so graciously. That will be in the victory speech, she thought. It’s all in the draft, which is downstairs somewhere.

Yes, you could make an argument that all those days were more important than this one. Marriage and children, that is the core of life. The job is important, the public service, the accomplishments, the history books, but family – that is the most important thing. Intellectually, she believed that. But is that how she had lived her life? She had dragged James and the girls through a dozen political campaigns, going back to her first race for city council, then for the state legislature, then for state attorney general, then for governor. And now this, the most grueling and ugly campaign of all.

She had gone days without seeing the girls. Then, even when she managed to get back to Princeton, she was exhausted. One glass of wine and she practically went to sleep at the dining room table.

Is that how it will be if, God willing, I make it to the White House? She glanced over at James. What the hell am I doing to them? Is it all bullshit when I say that family is more important than anything else? A campaign carries you along so that you have no time to think once you’re in it. It’s like getting on one of those amusement park rides that makes you sick to your stomach and wish you had stayed on the ground. But, once the operator starts the huge machine, you cannot get off.

She leaned over and kissed James gently on the shoulder. I’ll make this as good as possible for you and the girls, she said silently.

Harding saw that the orange band at the bottom of the windows was getting wider. How much time do I have? She heard noises downstairs, voices and chairs being shuffled. The staff was trying to be quiet, but it was impossible to avoid disturbing people in an upstairs bedroom in an old house that is just not that big. The faint smell of brewing coffee drifted up the stairs. Time to get up.

2

Election Day – 7:30 AM

Home of Melissa Harding

Harding’s senior staff members were already drinking coffee at the dining table when Harding came downstairs. She liked all of them and felt lucky to have them. They had stuck with her through some tough times, particularly in the beginning of the primary campaign when she had stumbled and fumbled and screwed up some lines that they had practiced with her over and over.

The ones who had been with her the longest – Ron Carter, the campaign director and her chief of staff if she won, Susan Lacy, her press secretary and Linda Haley, her executive assistant – were like family. They had all been in the governor’s office until her second term was up and she set up gigs for them until she decided to run. Then, when she finally decided, they made the transition to the campaign. All very seamless. Two others would be here this morning – Jeff Robinson, her political director, and Olivia McNaughton, her national security advisor. They were the new people – both very good at what they did. They were sought after by other candidates who wanted the nomination, but they joined her campaign early. Now, here they were, sitting in her dining room, having coffee, looking a lot more tense than the candidate.

Good morning, everybody, Harding said with her famous grin, the same for three people as for ten thousand in an auditorium or millions in a television audience. It was a very genuine smile, and people knew it. Perhaps more than any single thing, that’s why she was standing here this morning on the verge of being the next president.

Good morning, Madam President, said Jeff. Ron winced. Yes, there was something a little funny about using the phrase and everyone got the joke. But it was too cocky, thought Ron, and just not a good thing to do.

‘Melissa’ will do for now, guys, said Harding. I don’t know what I want you to call me later, but I’ll let you know. I know things look good but don’t jinx it. Does everyone have coffee?

We’re set, Melissa, said Susan. Should we wait for your husband?

No, let James sleep. It’s a simple day. Let’s go over it when he comes down. He has been up with me past midnight for the last month. In the meantime, let’s walk through the numbers. I fell asleep listening to CNN last night. I know what they were saying at midnight, but I’m sure we have some better data. Or do we?

Ron opened a file folder and spread a computer printout across the table. Before I get into this, I want you to know there is bound to be litigation today over what the Republicans are doing with polling places. Lester is in the headquarters office. Lester Crawford was the campaign’s general counsel.

Don’t we need him on the phone? Harding asked.

Melissa, that guy is swamped with legal stuff even at this hour. Plus, he hasn’t got great political instincts, so there is no point in distracting him.

OK, said Harding. I trust you. But what is he up to?

He is going to oversee the lawsuits that we know are coming. There are going to be fights over attempts to close polling places and disqualify voters, claims of voter fraud, all kinds of crap. And he is the one who has to oversee it. The Democratic National Committee has its own litigation team. The non-profits will have lawyers filing stuff. The whole thing will be a madhouse, particularly in three or four swing states.

Are we working with the DNC on this? Harding asked.

Oh, yes. The DNC knows they are going to have to spend a shitload of money on this stuff, although we will have some lawyers working pro bono. We can’t tell the non-profits what to do – the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights, the ACLU, the Hispanic groups, all of them. They are non-partisan so they have to be on their own. They have election protection teams that will be filing their own cases and intervening in others. There is no point getting you involved in this craziness unless you want to be.

No, no, do what you have to do. Don’t tell me this is going to end up with some Bush v. Gore nonsense? That was a bad day for the country…and for the Court.

We can’t tell you that, Melissa, but we hope not, Jeff said.

Harding smiled. I’ve gone from ‘Madam President’ to ‘Melissa’ in two minutes, Harding teased. The whole thing seems surreal.

Everyone laughed. The same thought occurred to them. Killing yourself in a campaign and then to be on the cusp of winning. There was something surreal about it. And it’s good to laugh before the shitshow starts. We are going to need some humor today.

How about bagels? Harding asked. Who needs one? I’ll put them in the toaster.

I’ll take one, said a voice from the stairs.

James, just in time, sweetheart, said Harding. These young people are strung too tightly. We need a break.

For a few minutes they focused on coffee and bagels. CNN was playing in the background, and no one could resist glancing at what the reporters were saying, but Harding kept bringing the conversation back to their families. What were their spouses doing? When was the last time they saw their parents? How much sleep were they getting? Finally, it was time to get serious again.

OK, Ron, said Harding. Get that whiteboard. Tell us what the hell is going on.

The popular vote is a no-brainer, said Ron. "You’re up six points in the popular vote polls although that is an overestimate of where things will end up. More realistically, you will win the popular vote by 3 or 4 points. It’s unusual in the modern era for any candidate to win the popular vote by a lot and lose the election but we’re seeing it more because of the crazy electoral college voting system.

Gore won the popular vote by 550,00 votes in 2000 and lost the election based on hanging chads and the butterfly ballot in Florida. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by a little over 2 percentage points, almost three million votes. But she only had 227 electoral votes. She lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which would have put her over the top, by a total of less than 80,000. The Green Party alone in those states got 132,000 votes. The Libertarians got 425,000 votes. So, the Libertarians and the Greens lost it for her, as well as a lot of other things – James Comey, the Russians, the stupid e-mail server business.

Hillary screwed herself, said Susan.

Don’t pick on her, Harding said. She was not the greatest candidate. But she had a lot of bad breaks. The staff had heard her go on and on about Clinton once she got started. They hoped that this would not be one of those times.

Let’s go over the basics of the electoral college vote, said Ron. I know you are sick of it, but the rest of this doesn’t make sense if we don’t get the basics down. The west coast and the northeast are yours, Melissa – starting with Maine, although Maine has this weird thing, like Nebraska, where they choose electors based on the statewide vote and Congressional districts, too. Out of four possible votes in Maine, you will probably get three. Let’s assume that. Beyond that, you’ll get Vermont, very likely New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey…

Talk about a disaster, Harding interrupted. What if I lost New Jersey? Harding’s face looked serious although the question seemed absurd.

You’re not going to lose New Jersey. Hillary won New Jersey by fourteen points and you’ll probably win it by twenty. Then there are the other northeastern states before you get to the southeast. Together, those are 91 votes. Out west, you are guaranteed Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. Those four are 78 electoral votes. Then you get Illinois in the middle of the country, which gives you another 20. So, you start out with a rock bottom number of 189. Just like Nelson Barlow starts out with a rock-solid base in the deep south, then more in the mid-south and Plains states. For Barlow, his biggest state is Texas. Texas alone has 38 electoral votes. He’s also leading by a small margin in some states where you have a chance, including Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

I wouldn’t give him Georgia or Arizona, said Jeff.

I’m not giving him Georgia or any other state, said Ron with a hint of irritation. I’m not giving him Texas either, but we have to get realistic to make sense of this. Texas is not a slam dunk for him but it’s very likely he will carry it.

OK, we get it. Calm down, guys, Harding said smiling. I’m feeling pretty good about this. Maybe I shouldn’t be, but I am. This is where the fun starts. Let’s focus on the swing states that are still in play.

I know we have been over this a million times, said Ron, but we have two scenarios to get to 270. They were all sick of the ‘how to get to 270’ phrase but everyone on both sides used it, and it was not going away.

OK, said Ron. Let’s use the whiteboard.

Oh no, said Susan. Not again. She tried to sound playful, but it came off as a genuine groan.

The staff had erected a small whiteboard on an easel at the end of the dining table. Ron fished for a black marker in a drawer of the cabinet under the kitchen counter. Suddenly, he had an urge for more coffee, and the coffee maker was staring at him invitingly. No time to get diverted, he decided.

The challenge is to build on the 189. Let’s look at the states where you are up by five points or more. Start with Virginia. You’re up in the polls there by 7 points. Virginia gets you up to 202. In Colorado, you’re ahead by 6, in New Mexico by 7, and in Nevada by 5. In Minnesota, you are up by 5. Together, those three states get you to 232. The challenge is where to get the remaining 38.

Got it, said Harding. Go back to the whiteboard thing. Tell me how we are going to get there.

OK, Ron began. There are two scenarios – the Trifecta Scenario and the Mystery State Scenario. The Trifecta is all the blue-collar states Clinton lost in 2016 – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Senator Baily, the person you trounced in the Democratic primaries and who still says he loves you, won only two of the three last time. That hurt him. There are four national polls and our own internal polling, all pretty consistent. It shows you with a narrow lead, 2 or 3 points, in Pennsylvania, which means turnout is everything. Baily and Clinton did not have a good turnout in Pennsylvania. But we have a major effort to get people out in Pennsylvania. You’re up by six in Michigan, so that looks good. The closest state is Wisconsin, but you have a lead there. If you hit the Trifecta, it’s done.

Baily screwed up last time, said Susan. He should have won all three states.

Harding reached across the table and patted her hand. You’re young, Susan. You have your whole life ahead of you. When you’re older…he did the best he could. Are you going to talk about me that way if I blow this?

Susan smiled. No, I won’t. You’re putting everything into this. Plus, you’re a decent human being…

So is Baily. He’s been speaking for us, Harding said. It’s a pain in the ass to leave the comfort of his California – what do you call it – ‘compound’? And fly around the country.

We sent him to Georgia and Arizona, Melissa, said Jeff. Our theory was that those were states where he wouldn’t hurt you. Even there, the polls showed that you dropped a point or two after he came and went.

People, people, said Harding. I’ve heard enough about Baily. He did his best. Now, tell me about these scenarios. James and I have to get dressed. I want to hear what our day is like, but I want to understand the numbers. Ron, go back to the thing there, the whiteboard. Get your pen. What’s the other scenario?

If you don’t hit the Trifecta, you’re short by a few electoral votes. You have to make it up somewhere – any state will do. That’s the mystery state. It could be Florida, it could be Ohio, it could be Georgia. Maybe even Arizona or North Carolina. You just need another state.

Do we have a chance in any of those states?

You have a chance in all of them. Arizona and Georgia are probably the best shots. Those are traditionally red states, but they are gradually turning blue. But I don’t think it will come to that. We think you will hit the Trifecta and it’s done.

Barring a disaster somewhere else, said Harding.

Well, yes, barring a disaster somewhere else, said Ron. But that is hard to imagine.

Disasters happen, Harding said flatly. The others were surprised at how unemotional she sounded.

3

9:15 AM

Election Day

Home of Melissa Harding

Harding opened the front door and waved at the two men sitting in a black sedan at the curb. Ron, would you go out to their car and tell those guys to come in? It must be getting cold out there.

I’m sure they have the motor and the heater running. It’s all in the CIA’s budget, Ron said.

Two men in navy blue suits walked through the front door and Harding pointed them in the direction of the living room.

Sit, guys. Coffee? Tell me how you like it and I’ll bring it to you.

No, ma’am, not for me, said one.

None for me either, said the other.

We haven’t met. I’m Melissa Harding, she said and shook each one’s hand. Usually, it is Wally and Francis who do these. Any reason for the change?

Jonathon Cox, the taller man, introduced himself and his partner, William Rodriguez. Cox said, The Director of National Intelligence felt that you needed some specialists on Iran. That’s our area.

I see. Tell the DNI I appreciate it. And tell him that I appreciate all his efforts to brief me since the convention.

We will do so, ma’am.

Now, what is up in Iran? Harding asked. I know what the press is saying. Barlow is moving troops in Iraq closer to the Iranian border. He says that there is intelligence that Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon than we thought. But that is what they are saying in the press. You guys know more than they do. Please tell me what you can.

The DNI has asked me to tell you this, and I quote, ‘Tell Governor Harding that the White House has concluded that Iran is one month away from a functional nuclear weapon.’

That’s a quote?

Yes, ma’am. Cox seemed to be the one who would do all the talking.

Well, you guys are smart about code words like these. You understand why the DNI put it that way. He is complying with the White House directives. OK, I get that. But he is not saying, ‘The CIA has concluded’ or ‘The intelligence community has concluded.’ You get the difference?

It’s not our role to interpret what the DNI has told us, ma’am. We are just telling you what he told us to say.

I understand, guys. I am not trying to put you in a difficult position. OK, what else can you tell me? Did Barlow move troops to the border? That seems pretty clear. CNN has people on the ground who actually saw armored vehicles and tanks moving along the highway.

Yes, ma’am. That is true. We can confirm those reports.

How many troops? What kind of equipment? Tanks? Portable missile launchers? What?

"We are not authorized to say exactly how many troops, but thousands. As