The Future: More than 80 Key Trends for South Africa

By Dion Chang, Bronwyn Williams and Faeeza Khan

Futureproof your business, career and family with these invaluable insights. This is an essential compendium of trends for anyone who is anxious or excited about thriving in the uncertain decade ahead. Along with accompanying actionable insights to pre-empt and solve the challenges and problems they represent to the serious South African with business, career and family interests to look after, it's a must-have. 

• Language: English
• Publisher: Tafelberg
• Release date: Jun 7, 2024
• ISBN: 9780624094999

Dion Chang

Dion Chang is a strategic thinker, keynote speaker, walking ideas bank and professional cage rattler. He is one of South Africa’s most respected trend analysts and founder of Flux Trends, which takes the unique view of “trends as business strategy”.

Book preview

Writers work over a long period and do extensive research to create a book which is eventually published. The e-book version of such a title is, like the printed edition, not free of charge. You may therefore not distribute the e-book for free, but have to purchase it from an authorised e-book merchant. Should you distribute the e-book for free, you violate the Copyright Act 98 of 1978 and render yourself liable to prosecution.

Tafelberg

The state we’re in: What you need to know about the decade ahead

This book is based on the Flux Trends annual State We’re In Trend briefing, an eagerly awaited annual executive summary of where the world is currently and where it’s heading. Using the acronym T.R.E.N.D.S. – representing six trend pillars that shape how we will live, work and connect in the coming year – Flux not only identifies new pivotal trends but also the undercurrents that have intensified from years before.

We entered the decade with a common consensus that we’ve entered an era of ‘polycrisis’ (or permacrisis). The Financial Times brings this state of mind into sharp focus with this explanation: ‘A problem becomes a crisis when it challenges our ability to cope and thus threatens our identity. In the polycrisis the shocks are disparate, but they interact so that the whole is even more overwhelming than the sum of the parts. At times one feels as if one is losing one’s sense of reality,’¹ which aptly describes how our collective, post-pandemic lives have unfolded.

Not only does it feel as if we’re losing a sense of reality, but that the world is unravelling. The Afrikaans word for ‘unravel’ is ontrafel, which somehow seems to more accurately describe the helplessness so many people felt throughout the year.

The 2020s were supposed to be a roaring new decade. Instead, at the very start, we were faced with a global pandemic and almost two years of lockdown. Then, instead of a period of re-emergence and recalibration after lockdown, we encountered rumours of World War III, an artificial intelligence apocalypse, and the promise of a global climate catastrophe to follow decades of local load shedding. And so we were diverted towards a new, uncertain future and, in the midst of our distraction, we put more of our faith and reliance on automation and algorithms.

The unravelling of an old world order is not a bad thing. It’s very necessary. But we need to ask, will we be the architects of a post-pandemic world or will we cede that responsibility to the machines?

The Flux Trends method

At Flux Trends we scan the world for signals of change that are set to affect individuals and businesses in the next five minutes and even five years. To do so across a full 360-degree perspective of the world, we use our T.R.E.N.D.S. method to ensure that our scanning covers the full spectrum of business and consumer trends. T.R.E.N.D.S. divides signals into six pillars for sense-making and trend spotting:

T = Technology

R = Retail and Marketing

E = Economy

N = Natural World

D = Diplomacy

S = Sociocultural

By scanning for signals of change across all these domains, we are able to give our readers and clients forewarning on critical emerging trends and the threats and opportunities they present. Identifying early signs of potential change before they enter the mainstream enables organisations to proactively pinpoint key action points in order to proactively shape desirable futures. This book contains scores of examples of the sorts of signals and resulting trends and insights we are able to map.

PROLOGUE

Flux Trends was founded in 2006, just as social media platforms were being launched. The ripple effect of those platforms, in turn, spawned new business models like the global sharing economy and social media commerce. Our focus has always been tracking disruptive trends that will impact a sector or force change on a company’s business model – be that human or technological trends. Over the past 18 years we’ve witnessed the evolution of many business trends and have become adept at separating the fads from the real game changers.

The coming decade, however, feels different.

The watershed moment was the global pandemic, which sped up the undercurrents of change already underway since the last decade: a contactless economy, a lockdown life audit that fast-tracked the ‘future of work’, simmering geopolitical tensions, the harsh realities of climate change and the reconfiguring of our social contracts.

We faced a barrage of change in the first three years of this decade, so much so that it feels as if we have been swept into a continual loop of polycrisis. I view it slightly differently.

This decade represents a crossroads: the death of old ideas and the birth of the new – specifically systems and processes spawned in the twentieth century, whether those are political systems or processes to which corporates continue to cling. Things are coming to a head and the chaos we experience so viscerally are the last kicks of a dying horse. This will be a Gen Z decade. The first digital natives of humanity started coming of age during the pandemic. The impact of their high social justice barometer, their approach to non-linear careers, their grasp of new technologies and alternative means of communicating are new ways of thinking that will come to the fore as the dust from the calamitous start of this decade begins to settle.

This book will help you navigate these uncharted waters. It lists a number of key trends with actionable insights to help companies, or individuals, turn challenges into strategy. This is an essential compendium of trends for anyone who wants to rewire their thinking.

Dion Chang

Founder: Flux Trends

THE SIX PILLARS

As mentioned, the six pillars refer to the acronym T.R.E.N.D.S:

T   Technology

R   Retail and Marketing

E   Economy

N   Natural World

D   Diplomacy

S   Sociocultural

‘Technology’ refers to new technological innovations and ideas that encompass more than computer technology. ‘Retail and Marketing’ explores the latest retail trends, but also includes an understanding of consumers, especially Generation Z, who are coming of age and represent the new generation of consumers. In the ‘Economy’ pillar, we explore the latest macro- and microeconomic trends, as well as the future of work. In the ‘Natural World’ our focus is on the effects of climate change. ‘Diplomacy’ delves into everything related to laws and regulations. ‘Sociocultural’ refers to what’s happening in society and where we foresee it heading.

For each of these pillars, we focus on South Africa, Africa and the rest of the world.

TECHNOLOGY

The rise of the machines

We came out of lockdown only to find that we had ‘rush hour in the metaverse’. Brands and businesses were staking claims in this virtual realm without quite knowing why and what the outcome would be, but instinctively understanding that they needed to.

The metaverse economy is now starting to take shape as the technologies required to play in this parallel universe become more accessible. Landmarks are being built, countries are creating cyber services for their citizens, universities have opened and retail brands have started to trade.

As the metaverse grows and evolves, so too does a new AI creative economy, one that is raising many eyebrows. An algorithm won an art contest and ignited controversy in the art world, while Ai-Da, the world’s first ultra-realistic humanoid robot artist, was invited onto a panel at the global culture summit in Abu Dhabi.

Machine writing is becoming more sophisticated and the AI chatbot (ChatGPT) can code, compose music, write essays and movie scripts, and answer questions more efficiently than Google. It can also admit mistakes, challenge incorrect premises and reject inappropriate requests.

The question now becomes whether technology is our friend and helper, or our ruler.

#1 

Somebody’s watching you

‘Shameware’ refers to apps that use phone-monitoring technology to monitor digital behaviour. This information is then sent to a so-called accountability partner, such as a parent or someone intent on helping you, like a teacher, mentor, pastor or therapist. Your phone use is then tracked, capturing screenshots, detecting the apps being used and recording websites visited and reporting questionable URLs or online behaviour to your accountability partner. Many proponents believe there is a growing moral crisis and that these apps serve to dissuade certain kinds of behaviour, such as the watching of porn. Covenant Eyes is one such app. On its website it encourages you to ‘join over 1.5 million people who’ve used Covenant Eyes to experience victory over porn’, and Gracepoint, a Southern Baptist church in the US, has reportedly recommended this app to congregants. Accountable2You is another example.²

These apps generate strong and divergent opinions. Anti-porn advocates, for example, see them as innovative tools to further their beliefs, but for critics they are an invasion of privacy, with many ‘users’ unlikely to understand the extent of the surveillance to which they are exposing themselves. For example, in a Wired magazine test of Accountable2You, the app identified content with the keywords ‘gay’ or ‘lesbian’. Not surprisingly, the ethical implications of this controversial technology are profound. There is also scepticism over whether these apps have a positive effect on users. Nicole Prause, a scientist at the University of California who studies the effect of pornography on the brain, says, ‘I’ve never seen anyone who’s been on one of these apps feel better about themselves in the long term. These people just end up feeling like there’s something wrong with them.’³

There’s clearly an appetite for this type of accountability surveillance technology and it remains to be seen whether it will proliferate. Indeed, we have also seen corporations installing similar software to monitor not only employee online behaviour but even attitudes and emotions at work in order to improve productivity and keep tabs on morales. Personal surveillance technology, however, is rather obviously mired in controversy and businesses would be well advised to consider the implications of employing surveillance technology to spy on employees, even for well-intended reasons. In general, relationships based on trust are preferable to those based on suspicion. Companies with high trust levels outperform companies with low trust levels by 186%.⁴ Trust between managers and employees promotes staff retention and productivity, and if there is a breakdown in trust, employees may become unreliable, disengaged, disloyal or uncommunicative. Policymakers should put in place laws that protect citizens from invasive and sometimes nefarious use of surveillance technology. In other words, control should not come at the expense of our human right to privacy.

#2 

Luxury surveillance

Luxury surveillance refers to people voluntarily paying a premium to be monitored by smart devices. Amazon Alexa, Fitbits, Discovery Car Insurance app and car tracking and other health-tracking apps fall into this category, as does Amazon’s Ring camera and, more locally, Vumatel’s neighbourhood community surveillance networks. Some argue that they are not that dissimilar to the ankle bracelets used on parolees or immigrants awaiting hearings. These surveillance devices are expensive and only really affordable for the wealthy, a kind of status symbol. They exist to make life more convenient, and promise benefits for health and security, but the data collected may still be used to target individuals with personalised advertisements. They are also used to effect positive behavioural changes, such as improving fitness, which can be seen as manipulation – albeit in a positive sense – to act a certain way. However, studies show that these devices are not particularly effective at changing behaviour.⁵

This normalisation of – and even demand for – surveillance for health and security reasons also raises concerns about violating the privacy of individuals, especially as those who do not wish to opt in feel increasing pressure from peers and organisations to share their data with devices and businesses.

Take security cameras at the entrance to homes that enable people to see into their neighbours’ yards, for example. Is there any way to opt out? Also, what happens to all the data that is collected? ‘These gadgets are analogous to the surveillance technologies deployed in Detroit and many other cities across the [USA] in that they are best understood as mechanisms of control: they gather data, which are then used to affect behaviour,’ says Chris Gilliard for The Atlantic.⁶

The data collected can theoretically be leveraged against people by their employers, the government, their neighbours, stalkers or domestic abusers. Potentially, it enables the study, prediction and control of human beings and populations. As always, we need to weigh up the individual and collective benefits of technology, when it comes to convenience, efficiency, health and security, with the social costs.

#3 

HustleGPT

Not very long ago, starting your own business required a significant investment in time and money. Recently, however, there has been a proliferation of AI tools to help would-be entrepreneurs to get a business off the ground within minutes and with practically no upfront investment. Online tools can assist with everything, from logo design to website building, and some go as far as facilitating the actual production of goods. One such platform is CALA, which deploys AI and machine learning to streamline the entire fashion supply chain.⁷ More than 40 brands and independent designers currently use this technology. Copy.ai is a tool to create human-sounding content for a business’s website and social media platforms.

The barriers to start, let alone succeed, in a new business are high. Often, founders start new ventures as side hustles while working for an employer, so their spare time is limited. Another struggle is access to funding. These AI tools, however, allow time and money to be saved for business-building endeavours other than those the tech can supply. There’s also the added bonus of empowering more disadvantaged entrepreneurs. These wins don’t only apply to new businesses though. Established enterprises can also adopt technologies in order to automate existing processes or launch new products.

As a result, businesses need to keep abreast of the latest AI tools to ascertain which can benefit their companies. In fact, hiring AI specialists who understand the complexity of the field is fast becoming an important requirement. If businesses are unable to afford a dedicated specialist, they are advised to seek the help of external consultants. Intersoft, for example, offers AI advisory services to help their clients grow their businesses, while EY also offers AI consulting services.⁸

However, businesses should remember, too, that technological competitive advantage is short-lived – that which can be digitised and automated can also be replicated by your competition. So, by all means, use the