Fog of War: Strategies and Realities in Modern Combat

By Fouad Sabry

What is Fog of War

Participants in military operations are said to be experiencing the fog of war, which is characterized by a lack of clarity regarding the current situation. While an engagement, operation, or campaign is taking place, the word is intended to reflect the uncertainty that exists regarding one's own capabilities, the capabilities of the adversary, and the intent of the adversary. The fog of war is something that armed forces attempt to decrease through the use of military intelligence and friendly force tracking devices.

How you will benefit

(I) Insights, and validations about the following topics:

Chapter 1: Fog of war

Chapter 2: Carl von Clausewitz

Chapter 3: Wargame

Chapter 4: Strategy game

Chapter 5: The Ancient Art of War

Chapter 6: Tanktics: Computer Game of Armored Combat on the Eastern Front

Chapter 7: Eastern Front (1941)

Chapter 8: Patton Versus Rommel

Chapter 9: Strategic Conquest

Chapter 10: Block wargame

(II) Answering the public top questions about fog of war.

Who this book is for

Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Fog of War.

• Language: English
• Publisher: One Billion Knowledgeable
• Release date: Jun 21, 2024

Book preview

Chapter 1: Fog of war

The lack of situational awareness that military personnel encounter during operations is known as the fog of war (German: Nebel des Krieges). During an engagement, operation, or campaign, the word aims to describe the uncertainty surrounding one's own capabilities, an adversary's capability, and an adversary's intent. Through the use of military intelligence and friendly force monitoring devices, military forces attempt to lessen the fog of war.

In wargames, the phrase is frequently used to describe uncertainty mechanics.

The Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz first used the word fog (German: Nebel) in reference to uncertainty in war in his posthumously published work Vom Kriege (1832), whose English version was published as On War (1873):

War is an uncertain environment; three-quarters of the variables that determine how an army will act are shrouded in varying degrees of ambiguity. It requires a sensitive and discriminating judgment as well as expert knowledge to discern the truth.

— Carl von Clausewitz

It has been noted that von Clausewitz employs other analogous metaphors, including twilight and moonlight, to express a lack of clarity, although he does not use the specific phrase fog of war..

Every military conflict involves the fog of war. Although accuracy and certainty are unachievable ideals, contemporary military doctrine advocates sacrificing accuracy and certainty for speed and agility. To some extent reduce the fog of battle, militaries deploy command and control (C2) systems and doctrine.

The phrase also refers to the individual soldier's experience in war; a common example is the battlefield's utter uncertainty regarding perspective, location, and direction. Officers and soldiers become divided, orders become confusing and open to change with inadequate communication. As a result of the person's reduced hearing and vision, which may not be quickly rectified, there is a perceptual fog that persists.

As technology in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance advances, the fog of war has been reducing. Gen. Mark A. Milley, Chief of Staff of the US Army, said in 2016 that If you remain still on the battlefield for more than two or three hours, you will perish. There won't even be time for four uninterrupted hours of sleep because the enemy's drones and sensors would be constantly looking for targets.

Complex double-blind miniature wargames, including military simulations, may use two identical maps or model landscapes, one or more referees providing limited intelligence to the opposing sides, participants in the roles of the referees, and participants in the roles of the players to simulate the fog of war. Abstract and military board games occasionally attempt to capture this effect.

When simulating war, the computer's ability to successfully conceal information from a player is considered to be a definite advantage over board games.

The Fog of War in Military Science

Introduction

The phrase fog of war (German: Nebel des Krieges) was popularized by the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz in his seminal work *On War* (*Vom Kriege*). It refers to the uncertainty and confusion experienced by participants in military operations. This term has since become a fundamental concept in military science, encapsulating the chaotic and unpredictable nature of warfare. In military science, understanding and mitigating the fog of war is crucial for strategic planning, operational effectiveness, and successful execution of military campaigns.

Historical Origins and Development

Carl von Clausewitz, a Prussian general and military theorist, first introduced the concept of the fog of war in the early 19th century. He described it as the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by military leaders during combat. Clausewitz noted that this uncertainty arises from the incomplete, inaccurate, or misleading information available in the heat of battle. His observations were based on his experiences in the Napoleonic Wars, where rapid movements and the lack of reliable communication often left commanders guessing about enemy positions and intentions.

The fog of war concept has evolved significantly since Clausewitz's time. Advances in technology, such as radio communication, reconnaissance aircraft, and satellite imagery, have improved situational awareness. However, the core idea remains the same: war is inherently chaotic and uncertain. Military planners and commanders must constantly adapt to new information and changing circumstances.

The Nature of the Fog of War

The fog of war encompasses several dimensions of uncertainty:

1. Operational Uncertainty: This pertains to the lack of accurate information about the enemy's capabilities, intentions, and dispositions. It includes not knowing the exact location of enemy forces, their strength, and their plans.

2. Environmental Uncertainty: This includes unpredictable weather conditions, terrain challenges, and other natural factors that can impact military operations.

3. Information Overload: Modern warfare often involves vast amounts of data from various sources. Processing and interpreting this data in real-time can be overwhelming, leading to information overload and analysis paralysis.

4. Psychological Factors: The stress and fear experienced by soldiers and commanders can cloud judgment and decision-making, contributing to the fog of war.

5. Technological Failures: Even with advanced technology, systems can fail. Equipment malfunctions, cyberattacks, and electronic warfare can degrade communication and information systems, adding to the confusion.

Mitigating the Fog of War

Military science has developed several strategies to mitigate the effects of the fog of war:

1. Intelligence and Reconnaissance: Effective intelligence gathering and reconnaissance are essential to reduce operational uncertainty. This includes human intelligence (HUMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), imagery intelligence (IMINT), and other forms of surveillance.

2. Command and Control (C2) Systems: Modern C2 systems are designed to enhance communication, coordination, and decision-making. These systems integrate data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive picture of the battlefield.

3. Training and Simulation: Rigorous training and realistic simulations help prepare military personnel for the uncertainties of combat. War games and simulations allow commanders to practice decision-making under pressure.

4. Decentralized Command Structure: A decentralized command structure, where decision-making authority is delegated to lower levels, can improve responsiveness and adaptability. This approach allows for quicker reactions to changing situations.

5. Resilience and Redundancy: Building resilience into military systems and having redundant capabilities ensure that operations can continue even in the face of technological failures or enemy disruption.

Technological Innovations and the Fog of War

Technological advancements have played a significant role in addressing the challenges posed by the fog of war. Some notable innovations include:

1. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): Drones provide real-time surveillance and reconnaissance, offering a bird's-eye view of the battlefield and reducing uncertainty.

2. Satellites: Satellite