Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to re-imagine the future of money, credit, currency, and interest rates. The great predicament of the past decade, Hendry argues, has been the tendency of central bank lending to become "trapped" in the commercial banking sector as reserves rather than being funneled into the real economy to fund productive activity. To fix this problem, Hendry envisions a world of ultra-negative rates in order to funnel the liquidity out of the financial sector. Short-term rates would have to go to -3% -- perhaps even lower in order to accommodate a steep yield curve -- is needed for banks to not go out of business. Pal investigates the profound consequences that this paradigm shift in monetary policy would have on the dollar, inflation, and creation, asking Hendry about alternatives such as perpetual bonds and modern monetary theory. Pal and Hendry then consider the optimal portfolio for this brave new world, including assets such as gold, calls on Eurodollar futures, and even Bitcoin. Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos Key learnings: A move to ultra-negative interest rates might be necessary to force liquidity out of the banking system and into the real economy. Such a paradigm shift in monetary policy would drench most assets in unprecedented liquidity and make cash a very unattractive asset to hold.
Recorded on November 12, 2020.
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