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Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade “flat to down” in the short-term as he notes that China’s zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023. He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S.’ stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing?
(05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk
(12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil
(16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve
(27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil
(36:18) The Gasoline Crisis
(39:56) Coal
(42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets
(46:57) European Electricity Prices
(50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics
(54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil
(1:02:18) U.S. Shale
(1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up?
(1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil?
(1:16:35) About Commodity Context
(1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment
(1:20:57) Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.