A president’s first midterm election is both an enormous story and
completely anticlimactic. It’s major news because there will likely be a
dramatic shift away from the president’s party. It’s anticlimactic
because it’s one of the most predictable events in American politics.

But history is not on Biden’s side. In fact, voters may have already
made up their minds. 

That, at least, is the argument from Doug Sosnik in his latest memo that
we are happy to share first with the Playbook audience. You can read the
full memo here

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.