On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally.
Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in!
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off
(11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment
(21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds?
(27:37) Bond Market Term Premium
(35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities
(38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe
(46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball
(51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening
(54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market
(58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging
(01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve
(01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks?
(01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not?
(01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets