Permafrost

FromCrossing Thin Ice

Start listening View podcast show

Permafrost

FromCrossing Thin Ice

ratings:

Length:

17 minutes

Released:

May 7, 2024

Format:

Podcast episode

Description

Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph.

Released:

May 7, 2024

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (36)

A discussion of Risk and Risk Management from the perspective of an Insurance company risk manager. Insurers provide products that help everyone to manage their risks. Here you will hear Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph, actuaries from the global consultancy Actuarial Risk Management talk about the sorts of things that keep those insurance company risk managers up at night. Or at least they should.

Skip carousel

Narrative Scenarios: The current real life scenario combines a pandemic, weather events, supply chain issues, inflation and a regional war all at the same time. Multi risk scenarios can provide major insights about a firm’s resilience that do not necessarily happen with ... by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
Three Little Pigs: When you encounter vastly different risk taking behaviors at two different businesses, you shouldn’t automatically presume that they are driven by totally different risk tolerances. In some cases they are actually the result of similar risk tolerance... by Crossing Thin Ice
15 min listen
Three Levels of Stress: Stress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the appropriate stress test to the audience is very im... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Spillover Diseases: As humans encroach on new ecosystems diseases found in animals and birds can jump to a new home inside us. We think about coronavirus and influenza but should monitor closely diseases like bird flu and Ebola. By Max Rudolph by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
Learning from Loss: A major loss often causes management to question past decisions. They might even reverse some of them, but this may be an overreaction. The Chief Risk Officer improves the discussion by bringing a systematic review of the risk related decisions that ... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Solar Storms: Emerging risks play a key role in risk analysis. One such emerging risk, Solar Storms, is much more than just pretty northern lights. An impactful solar storm happened as recently as 1859. Then, some problems with telegraph wires were reported, j... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance: This podcast is a challenge for you to consider something that is likely not yet on your risk register. Could the spread of bacteria with resistance to antibiotics have an impact on your business plans? We provide some questions that you might as... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023: A deep dive into the risk selected as the Most Dangerous of 2023. We compare recent inflation spikes against past events, look at the drivers of the current bout of inflation, the impact on the insurance industry along with the most common responses... by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
Moderately Adverse Conditions: We have generally used a continuation of the current environment as our base assumption. But now, with the encouragement of the NY DFS, that is being treated as worse than “Moderately Adverse” scenario. Insurers need to develop a robust set of stress... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Most Dangerous Risks: Over 200 respondents in the Dangerous Risks to Insurers Survey reordered the top risks, with Inflation swapping with Cybersecurity and cybercrime for the #1 spot, and Global/National recession moving into the top 5 at #3. By Dave Ingram and Max R... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Fear vs. Danger: Fear or Danger is a false choice. But using rational thought to balance fear and danger, and find an appropriate response, is very difficult. This repeatable process for thinking through how to react can improve your likelihood of success. Risk I... by Crossing Thin Ice
24 min listen
Six Futures for ERM: Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities m... by Crossing Thin Ice
21 min listen
Using Risk Appetite: Contrarian Views: It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the last investor in does poorly. Long periods of stimulus provide warning that economic cycles come to an ... by Crossing Thin Ice
15 min listen
Cascadia Earthquake: When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. By Max Rudolph by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Concentration: Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tactical methods to mitigate these risks. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
Leverage: The Flip Side of Risk Management: It is quite tempting, when interest rates are so very low, to take on debt just because you can. But that might not be the best thing for an organization, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Leverage, or borrowing, can have a major impact... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Microplastics: Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing n... by Crossing Thin Ice
13 min listen
After COVID: Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they a... by Crossing Thin Ice
14 min listen
Telling Your ERM Story to Rating Agency: There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital and the ERM Journey. Usually there isn’t enough time to tell the the ratings analyst all four chapte... by Crossing Thin Ice
16 min listen
Risk and Capital: Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss... by Crossing Thin Ice
16 min listen
Cybercrime - Most Dangerous Risk of 2024: The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Super Volcano: A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar event... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Why Insurers Do ERM: Enterprise Risk Management is practiced in different ways by insurers. Some focus on the basics while others consider ERM as a strategic strength. In a recent survey, ARM asked what is most important to them about ERM. by Crossing Thin Ice
21 min listen
Climate Migration: No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat... by Crossing Thin Ice
15 min listen
Interactions between risks: Implications for building scenarios: Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios t... by Crossing Thin Ice
22 min listen
No Free Lunch: New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers nee... by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
RiskMaster Cheat Code: Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer? The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for s... by Crossing Thin Ice
21 min listen
Achieving Resilience: Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important result. By Dave Ingram. by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
Regime Changes lead to New Normal: Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persis... by Crossing Thin Ice
24 min listen
Permafrost: Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph. by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen

More Episodes from Crossing Thin Ice

Skip carousel

The Power of AI to Revolutionize Actuarial Work - Part 1 by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
Risk Beliefs: You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. By Dave Ingram. We would like to know what you think about a set of 30 Risk Culture Beliefs that we h... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Cybercrime - Most Dangerous Risk of 2024: The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Regime Change - Scenarios: Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part se... by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
Interest Rate RIsk for Insurers: When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. L... by Crossing Thin Ice
22 min listen
Dangerous Risks 2024: Return to Normal Concerns: The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic. The top 4 risks are the same as those seen in 2019. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
No Free Lunch: New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers nee... by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
RiskMaster Cheat Code: Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer? The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for s... by Crossing Thin Ice
21 min listen
Water, Water Everywhere: Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While aquifers and rivers struggle, extreme weather and sea level rise provide an overabundance of water. ... by Crossing Thin Ice
22 min listen
Achieving Resilience: Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important result. By Dave Ingram. by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
Using Risk Appetite: Contrarian Views: It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the last investor in does poorly. Long periods of stimulus provide warning that economic cycles come to an ... by Crossing Thin Ice
15 min listen
Regime Changes lead to New Normal: Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persis... by Crossing Thin Ice
24 min listen
Leverage: The Flip Side of Risk Management: It is quite tempting, when interest rates are so very low, to take on debt just because you can. But that might not be the best thing for an organization, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Leverage, or borrowing, can have a major impact... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Climate Migration: No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat... by Crossing Thin Ice
15 min listen
Risk and Capital: Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss... by Crossing Thin Ice
16 min listen
Interactions between risks: Implications for building scenarios: Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios t... by Crossing Thin Ice
22 min listen
Why Insurers Do ERM: Enterprise Risk Management is practiced in different ways by insurers. Some focus on the basics while others consider ERM as a strategic strength. In a recent survey, ARM asked what is most important to them about ERM. by Crossing Thin Ice
21 min listen
After COVID: Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they a... by Crossing Thin Ice
14 min listen
Six Futures for ERM: Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities m... by Crossing Thin Ice
21 min listen
Super Volcano: A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar event... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Concentration: Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tactical methods to mitigate these risks. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
Cascadia Earthquake: When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. By Max Rudolph by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Telling Your ERM Story to Rating Agency: There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital and the ERM Journey. Usually there isn’t enough time to tell the the ratings analyst all four chapte... by Crossing Thin Ice
16 min listen
Microplastics: Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing n... by Crossing Thin Ice
13 min listen
Three Levels of Stress: Stress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the appropriate stress test to the audience is very im... by Crossing Thin Ice
18 min listen
Solar Storms: Emerging risks play a key role in risk analysis. One such emerging risk, Solar Storms, is much more than just pretty northern lights. An impactful solar storm happened as recently as 1859. Then, some problems with telegraph wires were reported, j... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen
Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023: A deep dive into the risk selected as the Most Dangerous of 2023. We compare recent inflation spikes against past events, look at the drivers of the current bout of inflation, the impact on the insurance industry along with the most common responses... by Crossing Thin Ice
23 min listen
Fear vs. Danger: Fear or Danger is a false choice. But using rational thought to balance fear and danger, and find an appropriate response, is very difficult. This repeatable process for thinking through how to react can improve your likelihood of success. Risk I... by Crossing Thin Ice
24 min listen
Spillover Diseases: As humans encroach on new ecosystems diseases found in animals and birds can jump to a new home inside us. We think about coronavirus and influenza but should monitor closely diseases like bird flu and Ebola. By Max Rudolph by Crossing Thin Ice
19 min listen
Most Dangerous Risks: Over 200 respondents in the Dangerous Risks to Insurers Survey reordered the top risks, with Inflation swapping with Cybersecurity and cybercrime for the #1 spot, and Global/National recession moving into the top 5 at #3. By Dave Ingram and Max R... by Crossing Thin Ice
17 min listen

Related podcast episodes

Skip carousel

Have our climate models been wrong?: Climate models are vital but have some concentrated too much on extreme scenarios? by The Inquiry
24 min listen
Climate Science, Climate Models, and Climate Change. What Is Driving The Earth's Warming? | NASA's Gavin Schmidt: In Episode 26 of , host Demetri Kofinas speaks with NASA's Chief Climate Scientist and Head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Gavin Schmidt. The two cut through the controversy surrounding climate change and dive right into the heart of... by Hidden Forces
72 min listen
Gaming climate change: Can a role playing game improve climate negotiation outcomes? by Science In Action
26 min listen
What peat can tell us about our future: Peat can offer us early alarm bells to climate change tipping points. by Unexpected Elements
54 min listen
How Humans Are Healing The Ozone Layer by Reset with Sasha-Ann Simons
15 min listen
Should we ‘dim the sun’ to save the planet?: Could solar geoengineering help us avoid the worst impacts of climate change? by The Climate Question
27 min listen
Gaming climate change: Can a role playing game improve climate negotiation outcomes? by Unexpected Elements
54 min listen
Volcanic rumblings in Iceland: Does seismic activity in Iceland suggest the country is entering a new volcanic era? by Science In Action
30 min listen
Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet: Record-breaking global temperatures are accelerating Greenland ice melt by Science In Action
27 min listen
Mixing Covid vaccines: Can Covid vaccines be mixed? by Science In Action
30 min listen
The countries left behind in climate negotiations: NPR climate correspondents Lauren Sommer and Dan Charles introduce us to two climate activists from countries heavily impacted by climate change. by Short Wave
14 min listen
Meteotsunamis: State of the Science by NOAA Ocean Podcast
10 min listen
Pandemic surveillance system at risk: One of the most useful scientific tools you’ve never heard of is being paywalled by Science In Action
26 min listen
Can COP26 deliver on climate change?: We head to the COP26 climate conference to hear about plans to slow down global warming by CrowdScience
40 min listen
159 Geo-Engineering a Cooler Climate: HKS Professor David Keith describes both the promise and peril involved with using geo-engineering to mitigate the effects of climate change. Solar radiation management (SRM) could conceivably cool the earth by placing particles in the upper atmosphere th by PolicyCast
25 min listen
The Sunday Story: Startups want to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight by Up First
28 min listen
Microplastics: Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing n... by Crossing Thin Ice
13 min listen
Mosquito pesticide failing: Mosquito pesticide failing by Science In Action
28 min listen
Scientists Are Racing To Save Sequoias by Short Wave
11 min listen
What will happen if the world's glaciers melt?: How are mountain communities being impacted by melting glaciers? by The Climate Question
27 min listen
What Melting Glaciers Mean for Our Food Supply by Warming Signs
31 min listen

Discover this podcast and so much more

Permafrost

Permafrost

Description

Titles in the series (36)

More Episodes from Crossing Thin Ice

Related podcast episodes