Ilya Spivak breaks down recent market movements prompted by new inflation data and the Federal Reserve's announcements. The CPI delivered positive news, causing initial market optimism, but the Fed's hawkish stance raised concerns about potential over-tightening. This could lead to a global recession if not adjusted. Spivak emphasizes vigilance, noting significant risks if the Fed's policy missteps, especially given the fragile state of global economic growth.