The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN  Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting backhttps://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.htmlMcKinsey & Company An update on US consumer sentiment: Are consumers on the cusp of a shift?https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumerDeloitte Summer Travel Survey 2024https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/articles/us187281_cic_summer-travel/DI_2024-summer-travel.pdfFederal Reserve Beige Book May 29, 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240529.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates